The hardest part of these conference rankings is comparing the amount of teams in each conference. While Boise State is better than any team in C-USA, or the MWC for that matter, the WAC isnt as deep as the other two conferences mentioned. Are they not as deep as C-USA because they arent as deep, or because C-USA has 12 teams, or what? I prefer depth of conference when it comes to these rankings. Why would the WAC be better than C-USA just because it has the best team of the two conferences combined? Imagine if you switched Florida and USC. The Pac-10 would now have the best team in the nation, and the SEC would pick up a good team as well. Would this trade make the Pac-10 better than the SEC? Of course not. Although the Pac-10 would have a team better than anyone in the SEC, it still wouldnt be better overall. Anyway.... C-USA can be a fun conference to watch this year. Houston will light the scoreboard up, East Carolina is being billed as many's next BCS contender, and Southern Miss looks to return to glory. Lets break it down.........
The June Jones era didnt start as planned for SMU. They went a pathetic 1-11, beating only Texas State. This is a team that has never recovered from the Death Penalty given to them, and June Jones is supposed to be the man. Back to Back 1-11 seasons (albeit only 1 with Jones) is not what the fan base is looking for. The #1 reason to have any sort of optimism is QB Bo Levi Mitchell. He threw for 2800 yds his freshman year, and 24 TDs. He also threw 23 INTs, but you have to expect these types of growing pains with freshmen on bad teams. He could be what Jones needs in a system that has produced great QBs in the past. The reason to be pessimistic is that SMU finished last in rushing yards last year in the nation. They averaged.........41.4 yds a game rushing. That is downright pathetic. Thats 15 yards less than 2nd to last New Mexico State. I dont care if you are a team that throws the ball 90% of the time, you still need to not finish last in rushing. 2 years ago, when Hawaii made the Sugar Bowl, they averaged 68 yds/game, and 3 years ago, they averaged 117 yds/game. You just need to run the football, period. For a pass happy team, SMU sure didnt light up the scoreboard, averaging 21 pts/game. Now figure in that they gave up over 38 pts/game, and its not surprising that they went 1-11. Ironically, their best games were against the best teams in the conference, Houston and Tulsa. Look for 3-5 wins this year.
Tulane played a brutal schedule last year, but that doesn't excuse them from finishing 2-10. They averaged only 16.7 points per game last year. They did start 2-2 last year, with their losses coming to Alabama and E. Carolina, so there was reason for optimism. The loss of RB Andre Anderson hurt them greatly, and he needs to stay healthy. QB Kevin Moore is entering his junior year, and should make great strides. The rush defense was atrocious last year, giving up 211 yd/game on the ground. That needs to stop. Up is the only way to go for the Green Wave this year, expect 3-5 wins.
UAB struggled defensively last year, giving up over 425 yds/game and 31 pts/game. Their offense is headlined by QB Joe Webb. He led the team in passing and rushing last year. Their offense returns nearly everyone, and could actually be explosive in 2009. The defense was bad, and loses their three top tacklers. Their pass defense was 108th in the nation last year, and in C-USA, that isnt a good thing (not good anywhere). UAB somehow plays 5 games at home this year, and 7 on the road, which does not help their cause at all. Look for 5-6 wins.
My, how quickly things can change in Orlando. Two years ago, UCF was the surprise team of the year, going 10-4 and playing in the Liberty Bowl. Their offense finished dead last in the nation in 2008. They were shutout by UAB (who we already mentioned had trouble on defense), and averaged only 16 pts/game. This obviously needs to improve. They return 10 starters on this side of the ball, but is that good or bad? The defense was certainly the strength of the team. They are led by linemen Bruce Miller and Torell Troup. Those men combined for 29.5 tackles for loss last year. The offense just needs to find some sort of a niche to get things going, and the Knights could find themselves back in a bowl game, they have a good enough defense. Look for 6 wins.
UTEP had flashes on offense last year, finishing 14th in the nation in yardage. QB Trevor Vittatoe threw for over 3,000 yds and 30 TDs as a sophomore last year. They return 4 linemen and all of their WRs. As always, balance is needed, and there is a void at RB. Their success on offense will be contingent on their ability to run the ball, but it could be a dangerous offense. The defense was downright pathetic last year. They allowed 77 points to Tulsa, and gave up 37 pts/game on average. Three times last year, UTEP scored 35+ and lost (49-44 to Rice, 42-37 to Houston, and 77-35 to Tulsa). Bet on the over, but dont bet on many wins unless the defense improves. Look for 5-6 wins.
Marshall's high point last year came when they beat Houston. This led to a close loss the next week to East Carolina. In both games, the defense showed they may have what it takes to get the team to a bowl game. The 23 points they held Houston to was the Cougars' lowest point total of the year. They return all four linemen, and 3/4 in their secondary. Marshall can have a pretty effective ground game, returning 4/5 linemen and 1,000 yd rusher Darius Marshall. However, Marshall did not perform well throwing the ball last year, and if they cant keep defenses honest, the ground game will obviously suffer. Any sort of balance on offense, and Marshall could find itself in a bowl game. Look for 5-6 wins.
Memphis is coming off a bowl berth last year (I know you all remember that Memphis S. Florida St. Petersburg Bowl). The reason they got there was because of their 22nd ranked rush attack, led by 1,222 yd rusher Curtis Steele, who returns. Unfortunately, the offensive line only returns one starter. The quicker they gel, the better. Also, the team loses most of their defensive line. The offense can be explosive, but if they cant control the line on either side of the ball, they wont be successful. Look for 5-7 wins; they have to play Ole Miss to start the season, and go to Rocky Top in November.
Southern Miss is coming off a bowl game, and an entertaining one at that, a 30-27 win over Troy. They return 3,000 yd passer Austin Davis, 1,300 yd rush Damion Fletcher, and 1,100 yd receiver DeAndre Brown. Wow, thats a lot of weapons. Keep in mind, that was just the first season of running the spread offense under coach Larry Fedora. Look for the Golden Eagles to light up scoreboards even more this year. The problem of why they lost 5 straight at one point was their defense. They gave up 45 points to Rice, 40 to UTEP, and 34 to Marshall.....all losses, and all losses by 7 or less points. Eight starters return on the defense. They play at Houston and East Carolina this year, which is no small task. Also, they travel to Lawrence in late September to face the Jayhawks. Look for this game to be an indicator of how good S. Miss can be during the C-USA slate. I dont think theyre ready to compete for the title yet, but should return to a bowl game. Look for 6-9 wins.
Rice won their last 7 games last year, including a 38-14 bowl win over W. Michigan in the Texas Bowl. Their 3 losses were at Vanderbilt, at Texas, and at Tulsa, which are all "good" losses. Unfortunately theyve lost a lot of talent. They finished 10th in the nation in offense, but gone is QB Chase Clement, and WR Jarret Dillard is playing on Sundays now. There will be new faces at QB and RB, and the running game must be effective while the passing game adjusts. The defense ranked 111th in the nation in yds/game. They return 8 starters, so improvement is possible. The team's success will be based on how quickly they makeover the offense. The quicker the better obviously, they play at Texas Tech and at Oklahoma State in September. Look for a step back for Rice for the time being. 6-7 wins.
Houston is coming off a bowl game that saw quite the contrast in styles. They beat Air Force 34-28 in the Armed Forces Bowl. This avenged an earlier loss to the Force in September of 2008. The Cougars finished 2nd in the nation in passing and total offense last year. They return the man, QB Case Keenum. They return 1,200 yd RB Bryce Beall. Now, factor in that it was the first year for coach Kevin Sumlin's offense, that Case Keenum threw for over 5,000 yards as a sophomore, and WR Tyron Carrier caught 1,000+ yds and 9 touchdowns as a Freshman. Oh, and Bryce Beall was only a freshman too. This could be a very special offense in 2009. The problem is that they only have 4 returning starters on defense. DE Phillip Hunt tallied 14 sacks last year, but he is gone, and close to irreplaceable. They finished 100th in the nation in total defense last year. Just bring it down a little bit, and they can compete for the title. They travel to Stillwater in September, so look for a high scoring game, but ultimately a loss. Still, it will be an early indicator as to if they can compete for the C-USA title. Look for 7-9 wins.
Tulsa would be the team that finished 1st in the nation in total offense. Two years ago they had QB Paul Smith. Last year they had David Johnson. It seems that whoever gets put in the role of QB produces big numbers. Look for Jacob Bower to ultimately be the guy. They lost RB Tarrion Adams, but surprisingly, Tulsa finished 5th in the nation in rush offense. We will find out if this is an offense that can run with anyone in the system, or if these players were just something really special. What separates Tulsa from Houston, is that the Golden Hurricane have a better defense. However, not by that much. Linebacker Mike Bryan had 119 tackles last year, and safety James Lockett had 8.5 sacks, which led the team. They need to get more consistent play out of the front 4 if they want to break through and win the C-USA. Either way, expect them to be there near the end. They get Houston and E. Carolina at home, but have to go to Oklahoma, and host Boise State. Look for 8-10 wins.
Finally, we have E. Carolina, the defending champions. They lost a heartbreaker to Kentucky in the Liberty Bowl, and finished 9-5. We all know how they came out and beat Va. Tech and W. Virginia to start last year, but if they want to be BCS contenders, they obviously cannot lose to Virginia like they did. The defense is very talented, and ECU seems to be the only team that plays any defense in C-USA. C.J. Wilson led the team with 10.5 sacks, and linebacker Nick Johnson tallied 102 tackles. The offense returns QB Patrick Pinkney. The offense was too inconsistent last year. They return a majority of their line, and they must improve for the running game to be effective. The defense will get them there, look for them to be in the hunt for the title again. They play at West Virginia, at North Carolina, and home against Va. Tech in November; not an easy schedule. Look for 8-10 wins.
Final Predictions (yes i had to look up the divisions again. I dont think anyone can recite the divisions of C-USA without looking........the conference should put up tons of numbers again on offense, and there are some good non-conference matchups against BCS teams that will only help in the long run for everyone).
West
1. Houston
2. Tulsa
3. Rice
4. UTEP
5. SMU
6. Tulane
East
1. E. Carolina
2. S. Miss
3. Memphis
4. UCF
5. Marshall
6. UAB
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