Week 1 Thoughts

Here are a large collection of thoughts on different things about week 1.

First off, I know, I went 4-7 with the Miami +6.5 pending.  Im glad I refrained from putting money onto an account, because I would have lost most of it.

Second off, SMALL GAME BOB, SMALL GAME BOB!!!!!  I do feel bad for Bradford, because although I dont like Oklahoma, and never really liked Bradford, it sucks that he came back to play this year, he got hurt in week 1.  I am really happy that BYU won though.

If I have to hear "why i am" by DMB all year as games go to commercials, as Randall Floyd would say, remind me to kill myself.

The first thing I noticed was the mixup of announcers.  I dont know if this was temporary or not because there were 2 Thursday games, but I would imagine that this is permanent.  I like how Mike Patrick and Todd Blackledge have been separated, and it looks like the Todds Taste of the Town experiment is over.  

I almost peed my pants when I saw that Millen was announcing.  I talked about this idiot enough already, so I wont reiterate most of what I said, but, not only did they hire him, but they made him an announcer?  On top of that, they say, "yeah, you can go and do the 2nd biggest game of the weekend (UGA @ OkSt)."   There are about a million people in this country that would have liked to have gone to this game, but couldn't for one reason or another.  But Millen, who was fired months ago for being incompetent and the worst GM in the history of any organization (not just sports --- maybe not as bad as execs at Enron), gets to announce the game.

Here is a conference by conference break down, the teams that looked good, and whether or not the conference moved up or down in my mind.

SEC:  Is still the best conference, and it was business as usual for them.  Florida won.  Tennessee won.  Auburn was more impressive than I thought.  Alabama took care of business.  Ole Miss looks very talented.  LSU has so much fucking speed on offense it is sick.  Vanderbilt and Kentucky look like they could make another run at bowl games.  

The only SEC team to lose was Georgia.  They were expected to lose.  They didn't play overly bad.  They failed to convert a crucial 4th down.  I still see a lot of promise for them in the long run.

The SEC is hands down, still, the best conference.

PowderPuff12:

I was already starting to think it even before Bradford got hurt.  I said to myself, see what happens when a team can actually get pressure on OKlahoma?  This was something that was not present last year.  I think they said that Bradford got hit a total of 45 times last year, and he was hit 3 times on one drive yesterday.  Then he went down, and Oklahoma shit the bed.  Make no mistake, BYU played really well, and deserved to win.  

Texas, Kansas, Nebraska all took care of business.  Oklahoma State emerged as an extremely dangerous team, as my new top 25 on Tuesday will reflect.  This was the type of game that you dont really expect OSU to win -- a 24-10, physical, low scoring game.  Most of their games still may end up being high scoring, but they definitely showed me something.  

Mizzou just dominated the Illini (more on this later).   As predicted by me, Baylor got off to a good start.  They should be lined up for a bowl game now.  Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Mizzou were the bright spots for the Big12.

The negatives were Colorado and Oklahoma.  Overall, the Big12 stayed about even.

Big10:

Not a good start to a conference already under a lot of fire.  Ohio State barely beat Navy.  Iowa should have lost to Northern Iowa.  Minnesota needed OT to beat Paulus.  Illinois looked like it took 15 steps back and was the Illini of 2005.  Terrible.  The bright spots were Michigan (very bright), and Purdue.  Purdue looked really good offensively for a team that was picked by some to finish in dead last.  Michigan looks like they have a lot of talent on their team, and I can not wait until the game next week vs ND.  For the first time since 2006, ND Michigan figures to be an important game - a sign that this will be a good college football season.  

Overall, Ill put the Big10 down a little bit, but next week is very important.  Michigan has ND at home, and Ohio State has USC at home.  If they both lose, then there is no excuse, and the conference will suffer a big backlash in the media.  If they win both though, they will look very very good.  At that point, Ohio State will have an inside track to Pasadena, be a top 5 team, along with Penn State in the top 10, and Michigan and Iowa in the top 25.  Next week is huge for the big10.

ACC:  

By far the worst showing by any conference.  Va Tech loses to Bama.  UVA loses to William & Mary.  Maryland loses by 5 touchdowns. N.C. State scores 3 vs S. Carolina.  Wake lost at home to Baylor.  Duke lost to Richmond.  That isnt good at all.  Ga Tech and UNC won, but against very weak opponents.  The FSU Miami game tomorrow should be good, and the winner will probably be one of the top 3 teams in the ACC.

Pac10:

Im kinda torn on the Pac10.  The USC win over SJSU means nothing to me.  Washington looked a little better, but still lost.  Wazzu might as well not exist.  UCLA struggled with San Diego State early on.  Arizona put forth the best effort, showcasing a strong defense vs the Chippewas.  Cal ran all over Maryland, and figures now to be the 2nd strongest team in the Pac10.  The obvious downside to all this is not only Oregon's loss, but their total embarrassment in Boise on all fronts.  They lost, they couldnt run to save their lives, and there is friction on the team already.  They fell as far as anyone.  Overall, Id say the Pac10 stayed about even.

Big East:

Syracuse showed a nice challenge.  UConn won at Ohio.  None of the other games are worth mentioning.  Cinci Rutgers tomorrow will be huge.  I guess the conference is up. 

MWC:

Huge thumbs up.  Utah beat Utah State.  Colorado St beat Colorado in Boulder (which I guess the game is no longer played at Mile High?).  And of course, BYU beat Oklahoma.  Strong, strong week, and the preseason favorites, TCU, had the week off.

I cant mention the BYU upset again without giving props to Bruce Feldman.  I mentioned a few posts ago about how this was the only guy on espn.com that i liked.  Last week, he had BYU in the Fiesta Bowl.  This, I suppose, means that he thought they would go undefeated and therefore beat Oklahoma.  Either way, great prediction on his part, again.

Now for a team by team/game by game breakdown.  Ill give you my new top 25 on Tuesday or later, and I will talk more about the 4 teams that play tomorrow then, but for now:

Florida -- didnt see the game, but didnt have to.  Business as usual.

Texas -- Ditto

Alabama vs Virginia Tech ---  Bama looks just as strong as anyone right now.  We knew their defense would be good, and it was.  IT was a game where even though they were losing going into the 4th, you were pretty confident that they were going to win.  THey had a huge advantage in yards, and Va Tech was kinda lucky to be there.  If the offense can produce the way that they did, along with their great defense, then they have a legitimate shot at beating Florida.  QB McElroy did pretty good for his first start, against a good defense.  Ingram and Upchurch ran all over the defense, and the offensive line looked good.  Another words, all the question marks I had for this team in the preseason were answered in a positive light.  They will remain my #3 team.

Virginia Tech is just ehhh.  I dont have any other way to describe it.  Taylor still cant throw the ball as well as they need him to.  I had them around 16 I think preseason, and that is about right, maybe in the 20s.

USC --- Looked real sloppy for the first 20 mins.  Then, they got a few turnovers and it quickly snowballed.  The defense played really well, but SJSU didn't really try to throw the ball downfield.  USC didn't open up the playbook either.  ABout every pass they threw was playaction, and many of them were dumped off to FB Stanley Havili.  Also, they ran a curl which was open every single time.  I like WR David Ausberry as a replacement to the injured ROnnie Johnson.  I would imagine they need to do more to beat OHio State, and it remains to be seen whether or not they can do it.  I mean, if they can just dump it off to Havili and run the way they did against SJSU, then they will win.  If they have to do something more, then its still up in the air.

Ohio State -- Had trouble stopping Navy.  Navy ran this play where they faked it to the fullback and then the QB just followed him.  OSU is going to be more of a passing team this year than a running team.  Again, I can't tell if this passing attack will work against SC or not, it remains to be seen.  If not for a few fumbles, Navy could hve won this game (not to mention the 2 pt conversion).  Ill need to see the spread and all that before I make a pick for SC OSU.  Id imagine SC would be about -3.

Musburger wasted no time speculating what the spread would be next week.  How much money did he have on Bama last night?  I would imagine a lot.  He only talked about Arenas' punt return skills 500 times.  Every time they were about to punt it he mentioned how hes a threat, then said he has done a good job 3 times.  

Ole Miss looks just as good as anyone.  Snead turned the ball over in teh first half, and it was close.  Remember when I wrote about Ole Miss, I mentioned how turnovers were costly last year.  They still need to work on that if they want to beat Bama or LSU and win the West, but they have the talent to do so.

LSU has a shit load of talent too.  Jefferson has a really, really good arm, but is still kinda raw.  He also tries to run it too much.  Charles Scott I still love, and WR Terrance Tolliver has tremendous speed to compliment LaFell.  Keiland Williams provides a nice compliment to Scott, although he is also a load at 6'1" 220.  

I take back everything I said about Bob Davie being a good announcer.  He said 5 times that the deciding factor in the game was that LSU had better athletes.  Yeah, when one team is good and the other isnt, that usually is a deciding factor.  The only thing that stopped Washington from winning was that they werent as good as LSU.  The only thing that LSU had going for them was that everyone on their team was better.  Do I really need to go on?

The other games where a ranked team played some schwag game, I either didnt see, or it isnt worth noting.

Which saves (maybe) the best for last.  ND

Cant say how impressed I was with ND.  They ran the ball better.  They didn't turn it over.  Clausen was 15/18, and somehow threw for 315 yards, (a 21/completion is huge).  But, coupled with the fact that his % was 83%, and its almost illogical.  

Most importantly, the defense showed up.  They stopped them in the red zone the first drive, and Nevada missed a FG.  Then they got them to go 3 and out a few times in a row.  By the half, it was over.  

I dont know what to expect next week in Ann Arbor, but I cant wait to see it.  Arguably, ND and Michigan were the two best looking teams last week.  That is coupled with expectations of course.  Did they look just as good as Bama or SC, or whoever else?  Dont know, but the fact that Im mentioning ND and Michigan with two top 5 teams speaks volumes of how good they did look.  both of them.  

All of a sudden, Michigan figures to be prominent again.  Which means, this turns into a harder game than ND might have thought.  On the other hand, ND looked better than I think anyone was expecting.  Michigan will be middle of the pack - top half in the Big10 this year, no question.  ND, though, has a hump in front of them now..........but...........if they beat Michigan, and ND and Michigan are as good as they looked week 1, then ND will be headed back to a BCS bowl.  Theres no question about that.  If they lose next week, then they still could get back to one, but they would have to be close to perfect of course.  Next week is a huge game for both teams.  Its a rivalry, and like I said, its good for college football.  A win for ND, and they figure to be favored in every game here on out other than SC.

Yeah, a lot of teams that ND will play looked good Week 1.  They include, Purdue, Washington, Navy, SC, Stanford, and UConn, but still, none of them looked as good as ND did.  ABout 3-4 of those teams will be in bowl games.  Like I said before, its not a hard schedule, but it isnt as easy as everyone is saying it is.  Michigan looked better than any team that ND has to play (other than SC), and therefore, poses one of the biggest threats left to the Irish.

A cover by Miami and I take a nice week 1 lead in the confidence pool.  I need to redeem myself after last season.  Im kinda like ND.  I was good 2 years ago, winning it (in NDs case, 3 years ago).  Then, I did really bad last year, finishing in 3rd out of 3, just like ND hasnt been good the last 2 years.  But then I put up a good performance in the Bowl Pool.  I finished 2nd/5, and ND looked good in the Hawaii bowl.  Now, this year, Im back to redeem myself, as is ND.

Thats actually a better analogy than I explained it to be.

New Top 25s

Im not doing one now, but I will next Tuesday.  I cant wait.  What makes mine different is that there will be radical changes and movements, unlike the AP poll.  Heres an example:

Notre Dame is 23 I think in mine now, and whatever in the AP.

If ND won by 1 over nevada, they would stay about the same, move ahead of some teams that were close and lost, whatever.

If ND won by 50, they would stay about the same, move ahead of some teams that were close and lost, same thing.

If ND loses, theyll drop out.

Well heres my example:  

If ND won by 1, they might drop out in my pool.  The only way would be the unlikely scenario that both teams looked really good, Nevada is a top 25 team, and ND is good despite winning by 1.

If ND wins by 50, and they legitimately look good, not just a result of Nevada sucking ass, Ill move ND into the top 10 right away.  I have no problems with that.

I dont know why other polls dont operate like this now that I think about it.

For example, last year, after Penn State manhandled Oregon State, I said "Penn State is one of the best 5 teams in the nation".  It ultimately was true, they were the entire season, and at the end they were one of the 5-7 best teams in the nation.  Going into the game against Oregon State, they were #19.  After winning by 31, they jumped all the way to........#17.  They werent ranked in the top 5 until week 7.  My goal is to do what I did last year - identify the potential Penn States, Alabamas, etc. early, and rank them accordingly.  OF course, with this enthusiastic outlook will come some "wrong" results.  I will rank teams in the top 5-10 that dont deserve it.  I will rank some teams in the top 5-10 that are not ranked in the top 5-10 in the AP that will ultimately be title contenders.  Those are the breaks.

Id rather do that then be a static piece of shit poll like the AP.  One that sets in stone and limits teams before they even play a game.  

Things that are Zero

This post is a tribute to the number zero.  

-Blutarski's GPA in his 7th year of college.  More technically, 0.0.

-The reporters IQ according to Ditka in a heated argument.  "You see that buddy, thats your IQ, zero!"

-2005 World Series Champion, Shingo Takatsu, more affectionately known as Mr. Zero.

-Amount of respect I have for LeGarette Blount and for the Oregon Ducks period - zero.

-The amount of first downs Oregon had in the first half last year.

-Realistically, the should be combined score of the N.C. State S. Carolina game.  THey could have played 12 more quarters with neither team scoring.

-Money in my fulltilt poker and pokerstars account combined - zero.

-But the real reason I wrote this article.  The % of space taken on my DVR after I cleaned house!!!!  Thats right, I geared up for the big one tomorrow.  I have the following taped:

at the 12:30 hour, Illinois vs Mizzou on ESPN and UGA vs Ok. State on ABC.  I declined to tape ND Nevada, because it is the game I would least like to see out of the 3, but also because itll probably be on replay on NBC some time during the week.   Then, I of course have the things after each of those games recorded for when they go long, college football overdrive or recap or some bs in both cases.  The next big invention for DVR companies will be to somehow know to extend a recording just based on the fact that it isn't over.  Even though they schedule a game for 3 hours, we all know that we should record the thing after it, for another hour to give us some time.  BUt sometimes, this isnt even enough.  THe worst experience of the last 5 years of my life was the Kentucky LSU 3 OT game in 2007.  You would think that 4.5 hours of recording would have been enough, but CBS' extra long commercials, plus a 3 OT game had the DVR crap out before the game was over.  This is when DVR was relatively new to me as well, so I didnt even see it coming.  I can still remember the rage.  Luckily, when games are on ESPN, and you are recording them consecutively, even if it goes wayyyy long into another one, youll have it recorded just because you are recording the game at the next time slot.

at 4:00 I have recorded the BYU-Oklahoma game on ESPN, and nothing else.  I guess the Alabama VT game doesnt start until 5:00.  

at 5:00, I have a 7 minute "college football preview" recorded, and then the Alabama game at 5:07.  I cant remember if they go directly to Musburger at 5:00, or they wait until 5:07.  Im pretty sure they go to James, Saunders, and Idiot of the week in the studio first, and then Musburger, but better safe than sorry.  Then I recorded the things after this game and the things after the BYU Oklahoma game, which I guess is being replayed early in the AM on ESPN.

At 7:00 I have recored LSU Washington.  THis is what the new college football season does.  I legitimately want to watch this game.  I am recording this game.  Washington went 0-12 last year, and I am excited to watch them play LSU.  I really cant explain it other than its opening weekend baby!  

Which is also why I plan on staying in tonight, getting up around 7 tomorrow, watching the beginning of gameday (something I rarely do), going to Ralph's, buying some beer, and heading over to the Coliseum at 9.  It should be a long, great day tomorrow.

I dont know how all this is going to work out.  THe only thing I am legitimately concerned about is this west coast time.  I have talked to a friend of mine from the Tampa area, who was of course on Eastern time, and he is also legitimately concerned.  Imagine normally watchign NFL games at 1 PM, and now you have to watch them at 10 AM.  Plus, I have to make a 25 minute drive out to his place in Culver City to watch the Sunday Ticket, so I am going to have to get up and leave around 830ish every Sunday morning.  Thats the price you pay for 4 TVs hooked up to the Ticket.  

Anyway, Im torn about whether or not I like that I get to see every game.  What I mean by that is, LSU Washington comes on at 7 here.  You could watch the entire game in the comfort of your own home, then go out, and not miss anything.  Where as in Chicago, you would have to leave at like halftime, or before the game is over, and watch the game in a crowded bar where no one else in interested in it but you, and your chances of getting laid decrease every second that you ignore the rest of the people you are with, and squint at a tv off in the distance of a close up of Steve Sarkesian.  It would seem like the West Coast has an advantage in that.

But the thing is, I kinda like when that happens.  I like when games go late.  I like staying up until 2 AM when a game goes late, and you say, yeah, this is an instant classic.  Let me put it to you this way, "no penalties, no penalties, yes" would have been way less funny, and probably wouldn't have happened, if we were on the West Coast.  It was Hawaii Washington (which was actually on a few weeks ago), and Im estimating that the game got done around 130 AM CST.  If its 1130, then youre still inside, at the bar, but you are not already crashing and eating at a late night breakfast place.  Not only that, but you aren't in that late night mode where everything is uproariously funny (not to say No penalties no penalties yes wouldnt have been funny otherwise).  Finally, no penalties no penalties yes guy wouldn't have probably been there if it were only 1130.  He probably would have been at wherever place he was beforehand that led him to be the no penalties no penalties yes guy.  I guess what IM saying is, by moving every game forward 2 hours, you kinda lose a nostalgic effect.

The obvious downside is that all the games start way too early in the morning.  9 AM for college football-Big10 Football, something Im obviously interested in?   Thats rough.  

The other thing that is problematic when it comes to attending USC games is 1) the travel, and 2) the timing.  Let me address these in reverse order.  Illinois was normally on at 11 CST.  The best games of the day are usually on at 230 CST, or at night.  Therefore, you are only missing other Big10 games when you actually attend an Illinois game.  You could record them if you want, but you aren't really missing anything.  You can record the beginning of a 230 CST game, and get caught up to the live moment pretty quickly.  It was never a problem.  So for example, this week would be the exception, as Illinois is on at 230 CST.  But say you went to Ohio State.  You could go watch your dumbasses play Navy at 11 CST.  You can recrod the beginning of the UGA OK St. game at 230.  Get home at like 3:00.  Get caught up, and not miss a beat.  

Well, USC, and all other west coast teams, as a result of being on the west coast, are not going to play 11 CST games, because that is 9:00 AM over here.  The normal starting time for games out here is 12:30 PST, which of course is 2:30 CST.  Which means what?  Which means that the games are on at the same time that all the other good games are on.  Does that mean that USC game is going to be good?  No, it just means that its on early for PST purposes.  So USC vs San Jose State is played at the same time as marquee games, just because of geography.  Its frustrating.  That, or they play in the late afternoon, at 5:00 PM PST.  THis is even worse, as were now kicking off at 7:00 PM CST, right about as Musburger is ready to kick off the game of the week.  Games on the west coast present many conflicting schedules, conflicts of interest, whatever.

The other thing I mentioned was the travel.  At U of I, you could walk to the game in 10 mins, and if it sucked (as it most often did the first three years I was there), you could just walk back in 10 mins and plop on the couch, order a calzone, and be in the zone for the next 10 hours.  Well, in the case of USC, I expect it to take a hour to get home tomorrow.  It takes me 30 mins to get home on a school day, and I figure double tomorrow.  Nobody in their right mind lives around USC, so its impossible to walk to the Coliseum and home in 10 mins.  Its back to the NFL game mentality, where you dont just go for 3 hours, you go 2 hours before, the 3 hour game, and then at least an hour to get home.  It sucks.  I wish I could walk over, get drunk, leave if I wanted, and walk home, but thats not the case.  But the point Im trying to make is that, I will be away from a tv for longer, which just means that I need to do more prep work on my DVR.

Its a new experience, and I will let you know how it goes.  If I had to guess, I would say that I dont like it.  I dont like the games starting early, I dont like that USC plays at a marquee time slot, and I dont like the travel involved.  All of these except the first will be remedied when USC plays on the road, and I dont have to worry about going or even committing to one game.  For instance, next week, Ill just get up at 9 and watch football all day, culminating in USC OHio State at night, which I would watch anyway.  BUt say in 7 weeks or whatever, when they travel to Arizona State, yeah, Ill watch the game, but I will definitely flip between other games.

The only other problem is you run the risk of hearing what is going on in other games before you get to watch them.  It was hard to avoid last night, and it was just Oregon Boise and S Carolina NC State.  The only game I really want to avoid hearing about tomorrow is Illinois Mizzou.  BUt think, youre at a football game.  The announcer could announce the scores, the scoreboard can show them, kid in front of you with an iphone can read them off, you can overhear the guy in the bathroom, you can hear them on the radio on the way home, you can accidentally turn on ESPN when you walk in, and the bottom line will be on the game you dont want to see at that exact moment.  It takes a lot of effort.  I dont mind if I know whos winning the UGA Ok State game, and Im going to watch that either way, but I would like to watch Illinois Mizzou fresh.  Ill be just about home by the time Oklahoma BYU and the other late games start, so I just have to avoid the computer and accidentally turning on ESPN at that point.  There is no longer the risk of overhearing someone talk about the games.  

Then its just a matter of how disciplined I want to stay.  I see a potential conflict.  Say I dont hear about anything.  I get home at 4:00.  I sit down, and watch the Illinois Mizzou game.  First off, there will be updates of the UGA Ok State game on the bottom of the screen and live look ins during the Ill Mizz broadcast.  That hurts.  There will also be updates of ND Nevada, which will be nice, cause then its like Im watching it unfold before my eyes, even though in reality the game will be over.  Thats the conflict.  But, this brings a new idea to my head.  

1) I could watch UGA Ok State on tape, even though I may know what happens, and continue to record BYU OK and VT Bama.  

2) I could watch BYU OK / VT Bama sorta live get caught up, still taping both of them, flipping between them, and watch UGA Ok State later.  THis may be what I ultimately do.  I guess it depends on how much I really know/find out about the UGA game.  If I know who won by the time I finish Illinois, then it wont matter.  I could watch the late games with no fear of finding out who won the UGA game - Ill already know.  I think I will watch the Illinois game, find out who won UGA by watching it, then turn on probably the VT Bama game on tape delay, and probably get caught up the time its over.  THis presents the same problem then, though, as by watching the Bama game, I will get live updates of whats going on in Oklahoma BYU.  But, either way, that was bound to happen.  I dont want to look and see the scores and then determine which game I want to start watching, so its kinda a coin flip of which game I think will be better.  I think it will be Bama VT, so Ill start to watch that, and get to the end of it live.  At this point it will be late, and Ill have 2 games on the DVR which I know the result, but wont have seen any of.  Then maybe I can join the LSU Washington game in progress, again, which wont reveal anything I dont know, go on the computer, check other scores, etc.

Then after all that, I can watch the tapes of the games I have on DVR.

Sounds like a plan.

THis all came from clearing my DVR.

Thursday Night Reaction

It took like .0001 milliseconds for me to remember the things I DONT like about college football.  Sean McDonugh is the first voice I hear.  Then I have to see James and Palmer.  Then I have to see a Kenny Chesney montage.  Then I have to hear its friendship week or some bs.  3 hours later (1.5 in DVR time), I see that its Bob Davie and Mark Jones doing the game.  Its a bad state when you watch two games on opening night, and the best announcer of the 5 is Davie.  Even worse when the second best is James.  Keep in mind that Davie said "highly innovative offenses 15 times", and I still think he was the best of the worst.  Let me get all the non-football things out of the way:

I saw two things I have never seen before tonight.  

1) Them calling an illegal man down field on N.C. State on a post pattern 35 yards deep.  Obviously James or Palmer, or both, were both right on it saying that this is now a point of emphasis, and will be called this year.  Umm, okay.

2) In the Boise State game, they ran a play, throwing it to the tight end for a first and goal.  Then the refs threw a flag.  They said that the offensive lineman lined up in the neutral zone, and the play should have never been run, but it was.  5 yard penalty.  Never saw that.

The officiating figures to be a constant problem all year.  It has shown no signs of improvement.  I think it is ridiculous that in a non conference game, one of the conferences involved has officials calling the game.  SEC officials called the S Carolina NC State game, and WAC officials called the Boise Oregon game.  Its beyond dumb.  

Could Mark Jones be more un-intelligent when it comes to the game of football?  Just listening to the first 2 minutes, I said to myself, oh boy...this is gonna be a long game.  

Its 19-8.  Oregon Ball.  Its 4th and 1 from the 22 yard line.  Theres 10 mins left.  Oregon goes for it.  THey get stopped in the backfield.  Biggest play of the game really.  He is like, barely alive as he calls it.  Why would this be?

a) He has a paycheck on Oregon

b) Hes shot up with sedatives 

c) He doesnt know anything about football

Probably c.  How come when I watch the NBA, as infrequently as that is, and its Lakers Suns or something, and as they go to a commercial, and show Kobe Bryant doing some average crossover on Raja Bell in slow motion, I have to hear Mark Jones yell "Kobe Bryant says, I got something for ya!!!!!" yet when they get a 4th down stop, I hear "Oregon is stopped,"  in a Joe Buck monotone voice?

I dont think Jesse Palmer said one original thing the whole game.  90% of the time, he just repeats what Craig James says.  At one point, Craig James asked him "What do you think of Ole Miss?"  Palmer responded "I like Ole Miss, they play LSU and Alabama at home"

Really?  That is why you like someone?  I talked about this obsession with schedules in an earlier post.  Imagine though, having this same discussion in any other sport.  It just doesnt make sense.....

Me: "How you think the Bears are gonna be this year"

Person: "They play Green Bay week 1 on sunday night"

Does that make any sense?  Of course not.  Why does it make sense in college football?  It shouldnt.

The dumbest thing in the history of any television broadcast, not just ESPN, is how they show the starting lineups on top of the screen, above the clock.  First off....you cant look at both those and the action on the field.  So its dumb right there.  Second, theres a debate in psychology that some people are audio learners, some visual.  Well, with the old system, you had both.  Whats an easier way to memorize something?  Read it, or read it, hear it, and see a picture of the person to go along with it?  And as a result of this, combined with poor announcing, its impossible to even know the players on any team.  Finally, football is the ultimate team game.  There are 22 starters.  Over 30-35 people get legitimate playing time.  Then, add in all the special teams play (which was beyond bad by all teams tonight), and you get a lot of people playing.  ESPN narrows it down to 3 "impact players".  Why?  Why cant they just highlight those people as they go through all 22 starters?  Even if they are so bent on using their lingo, why can't they just go through 22 starters, and say "LB Eric Norwood is an impact player", and have a picture of all 3 linebackers on the screen with their names on it?  I know this isnt that hard, because this is the way it was done for 20 years.  

Pretty sloppy play on all teams' parts.

South Carolina vs North Carolina State.

The only touchdown resulted from a turnover, and USC only had to go 20 yards or something. Why did N.C. State refuse to throw the ball down the field?  I thought USC's defense played pretty well.  Obviously Norwood had a good game, but CB Akeem Auguste played well, as well as Rodney Paulk and Darian Stewart.  Im still not sold on Garcia at QB, but he looked better than any point last year.  

N.C. State should be embarrassed.  THe only thing to hang their hat on is the play of their defense.  They just have no weapons on the offensive side.  They really need to open up the playbook a little more.  I dont wanna talk about this anymore, because Im kinda embarrassed I gave NC State any kind of credit.  

Boise State vs Oregon

The first half, Boise State looked, really, really really, good.  They played great defense.  This is an Oregon team that scored 40 points + or something three straight games.  They had a top rushing offense.  And they didnt get a first down until the third quarter.  I only got to see Boise a few times last year, and in the Poinsettia Bowl, Kellen Moore looked just okay.  Then, I pick up an athlonsports this year, and its just all Moore, Moore, Moore.  Well that is all deserved.  There were some touch throws he made that were great.  He looks like the real deal.

I dont really need to discuss how sloppy the play was in the second half.  Boise could have won this game by 24+.

I also dont appreciate having to hear Davie talk 100 times about how "as long as the BCS standings come out in December have Boise in there, they dont care how they got it done, how sloppy it was", and all other Boise in the BCS talk.  Its September 4th.  Please.  I have never heard a more premature BCS crowning for ANY team.  

If LeGarette Blount were such a badass, you would think hed have had more than negative five yards rushing.  The old saying is do your talking after the fact, off the field, not on it, right?  

This brings me back to my "there is gonna be a brawl some day theory".  Blount was totally out of control.  Now, imagine, if for no good reason, Boise State fans rushed the field.  Fans have rushed the field for less in the past.  Imagine if there were a couple hundred of fans in the tunnel and in the end zone that Blount had to walk by.  

I really dont know what to say about Mark May at this point.  He has new glasses.  In the Coors LIght six pack of "hard" questions, they asked him 3, and then he got time off in-between, probably because it was so excruciatingly difficult. These were the questions, and his answers:

1) How many games will Florida lose (0).

2) Who can win the title not in the top 10 (N. Carolina).

3) Who can win the Heisman not in the top 3 (Best).

I can see how that would warrant a break.

The only other thing that really annoys me about college football is the Heisman.  It isn't even really an award at this point.  It just goes to the QB of the best offensive/best team.  The exception to this would be that Tebow played on an 8-4 Florida team the year he won it.  The last RB to win it was Bush in 05.  Before that, Dayne in 99. Every year in-between, a QB has won it.  Most of them are less than spectacular.  Its a stupid award.  That, and it is decided in the beginning of the year.  Theres no doubt that the 3 big names will be there in December barring some injury or really freaky.  Thats why no one even cares who wins anymore. 

Beyond this, then they ask who can win that isnt those 3.  So they just give the best RB in the nation, Jahvid Best, and then everyone gives the Eric Berry speech.  You know, the speech that you've heard 100 times the past 2 weeks: "Well I like Eric Berry, even though he plays safety.  Hell have to make some plays.  Charles Woodson is the last defensive player to win the award, and he also was featured on the offense and returned kicks."  If you havent heard that yet, you will.  

But the highlight of the whole night was after showing the Blount punch a couple of times, Davie exclaims, outraged: "and this all coming after a pre-game handshake on good sportsmanship night!"

Like he was legitimately outraged.  It sounded like something that would be yelled out in a Rocky movie.  The one I thought of is when Drago kills Creed, and, well before he kills him, after the first round, the black trainer of Creed's gets up and screams "this is supposed to be an exhibition!!!!"

Not really the same thing, but the outrage is there in both cases.

Okay.....

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/story/12147883

Picks for Week 1

So Ill try and give what I think my best bets are for this weeks games.  Week 1 is very difficult, but there is some value to be had, its just hard to find.  Think of all the movement there will be from now until December.

Last year, Alabama and Penn State were ranked in the 20s.  Utah wasn't ranked.

Wisconsin, W. Virginia, Clemson were ranked in the top 10.

Even when teams do well, it doesn't mean it starts right away.  Oregon State looked like absolute shit against Stanford the first Thursday of the year.  They went on to beat USC and win 9 games for the 2nd straight year.  Mississippi lost to Wake Forest, and went on to beat Florida and win the Cotton Bowl.  There is really no way of judging it right now, or even next week.  Teams that are "sleepers" usually pull one big upset in week 4-6, and then get hot, and win all of their remaining games or all of their games minus one.  

If I really had to make a prediction of who those teams would be, Id pick someone like Arkansas, Stanford, or Baylor.

So, that being said, that means nothing for week 1.  Baylor could be 7-5 when the season ends, but they could lose to Wake Forest by 30 on Saturday.  Its difficult to diagnose.

That being said, here is my best chance to diagnose.

Keep in mind, there are no public underdog.  In a previous post, I forewarned about the dangers of a public underdog.  What is that?  Well that means that although a team is an underdog, a majority of people are taking them WITH THE SPREAD.  It is not a good thing to be.  I cant run the numbers now, but if you want, go back to last year, see all the times a team was underdogged but received a majority of bets on them, and won.  I would say its less than 25%.  How do you know what team receives the most money?  Right here:

http://contests.covers.com/Handicapping/consensusPick/daily-consensus-picks.aspx?sport=2&date=9/5/2009&select_type=0

It really is remarkable.  Remember, you arent betting on Penn State to beat Akron.....you are betting on them to win by 27.  Even with that in mind, 80% of the world thinks Penn State will win by 4 touchdowns or more!  It is ridiculous.  So as you can see, the favorite with the least amount of confidence in the public is California -21, with 51% of the vote.  Actually, Boise State has a 50.44% vote, but they are listed on Thursdays games.  That is about as close as it can get to split action.  

Think about this fact.  If you take one thing from this article, take this:

Any team, any spread, this week, the favorite got more people to bet on them than the underdog.

That is really remarkable.  Texas -41.5?   They still got 75% of the world to bet on them!  There is just some natural tendency for people to bet on the favorite.  I guess it is because usually they are the better team.  What people forget is that you are then laying points.  Yeah, Texas is better than La-Monroe, but 42 points better?  But it is hard to believe that every favorite gets more action.

But Vegas likes this.  The more people that bet on a losing team, the more money they win.  In the long run, Vegas makes money, otherwise it wouldn't exist.  It takes an overwhelming amount of confidence to even break the 50% mark, and have an underdog receive more action than a favorite.  That is why, when it does happen, you should be weary.

It is also interesting that only 6 home teams are underdogs.  2 of them are Washington and Washington State.  Another is Syracuse.  You get the idea.  It is rather tough to be an underdog at home, but will be more abundant once conference play starts.

Looking at percentages is one of many things that I look at when betting games.  I cant reveal them all because a) it would take too long, b) my enemy CanMan reads this blog, and I am in a direct competition with him betting on games this year.  I cant reveal my secrets.  

If I were in Las Vegas this weekend, this is who I would bet on:

Louisiana Tech +13.5  @ Auburn

Miami +6.5 @ Florida State

Ohio +3.5 vs UConn

Memphis +17 vs Ole Miss

And thats about it.

The games I would seriously consider betting on, and if I were drunk/hot/won at something else I would take:

W. Michigan +13 @ Michigan

Nevada +14 @ Notre Dame

Washington +17.5 vs LSU

Syracuse +6.5 vs Minnesota   (Would have to be real drunk).

So I clearly like all underdogs.  In the big games/games in my pool, I took:

BYU +21.5 vs Oklahoma (@ Cowboys Stadium)

Georgia +5.5 @ Oklahoma State

Alabama -6.5 vs Virginia Tech (@ Georgia Dome)

Oregon +4.5 @ Boise State

So out of all those games, and even ones I wouldnt bet on, I only took one favorite.  But well see.  If I were a betting man, I would take the first four, then the next four would get some consideration, and then the final four I can enjoy without having money on it/the spread is just about right on and I cant for sure decide on either side.

Well see how it turns out.

Enjoy Week 1

Tomorrow is like Christmas Day.  Christmas Day if you wake up, go to class for 12 hours, drive home at midnight, get home, put a brickoven pizza in the oven, and watch DVRed games from 1 - 5 AM.  I love it.