Number 12

12. Boise State Broncos

Since 2001, Boise State has failed to win 10 games just once; in 2005 they won 9.  Now, critics will say that they dont play in a major conference, (they say that because theyre right), but nonetheless, Boise has been willing to go out and play big name teams.  Last year, they traveled to Oregon, and won.  Two years ago, they traveled to Washington, and lost.  In their undefeated 2006 season, they hosted Oregon State, and traveled to Utah, obviously winning both.  They opened their 2005 season with 2 tough road games, @ UGA, and @ Oregon State, losing both.  In 2004, they hosted both Oregon State and BYU, winning both.  In 2003 they traveled to Oregon State and lost, and in 2002 they traveled to Arkansas and lost.  As you can see, they have increased their difficulty of non conference games, (although this year may be a step back), and have improved against those teams.  The most interesting stat is that Boise State is only 3-4 in their bowl games since 2002.  Now, they're 1-0 in the biggest bowl game they've ever played, but they have lost to TCU, E. Carolina, Louisville (in a great Liberty Bowl), and Boston College over the years.  Those teams are all established as historically good football teams.  You need to be consistently good to garner the acclaim that you're looking for.  Like they say, you have to earn respect.  Well, beating Oklahoma was a great first step, but these next 2-3 years I say will be crucial for Boise State for years to come.   

Sidenote:  I realize that Oklahoma hasnt won a big game in 5 years, and that they should therefore garner no respect based on what I've written above.  Well guess what?  I dont respect Oklahoma, so the story checks out.

OFFENSE:

QB Kellen Moore has the potential to be a better QB than his predecessor, Jared Zabransky.  (Is it still your predecessor if he doesnt come immediately before you?)  Moore is only a sophomore, but he lit it up as a Freshman.  He threw for 3486 yards, and a 25-10 TD-INT ratio.  On top of that, probably the best game of his was at Oregon, in only his third start.  He didnt play that well against TCU's top defense in the Poinsettia Bowl, but no one really was.  As is the case with all Freshmen QBs, they throw a lot of picks.  Moore was no exception, but expect the number to drop this year.

They lose leading rusher Ian Johnson, but Johnson's activity was reduced last year, which gave the opportunity for other RBs to get some experience.  Junior Jeremy Avery returns with 614 yards rushing, as does D.J. Harper, who rushed for 265 yards.  They lost a big name early when Junior WR Jeremy Childs decided to leave early for the NFL.  Last heard, he signed a free agent contract with San Diego Super Chargers.  But, Austin Pettis returns, who caught 49 balls for 567 yards and 9 touchdowns.  I have heard that both TEs are dangerous threats; Kyle Efaw and Tommy Gallarda.  

The offensive line returns three starters, and is full of sophomores and juniors.  As always, the offense will be dependent on their success.

DEFENSE:

The defense was the strength of the team last year, and figures to be so again this year.  They allowed only 12.6 pts/game last year, 3rd best in the nation.  CB Kyle Wilson has the chance to be a top 10 NFL draft pick if he plays like he did last year.  They also return CB Brandyn Thompson and S Jeron Johnson, for 3/5 starters in the secondary (they run a 4-2-5).  On the line, they return DE Ryan Winterswyk and DE Byron Hout, who are both very productive.  

They have no returning linebackers, but a stable of young talent that will be competing for the only 2 spots.  First of all I like the 4-2-5 defense, and when you have quality safeties like the Broncos do, you can give offenses a lot of different looks.  As far as linebackers go, this will increase the competition in camp for playing time.  They will figure out who the two best linebackers are and put them in there, but more than 2 will likely see playing time.  They ranked 25th in turnover differential last year.

Heres the deal with Boise State.  They have 2 seniors projected to start on their team.  That is fullback Richie Brockel, and CB Kyle Wilson.  A 10 win season again for Boise State would be a great success.  Of course, they want more than that.  They should be upset that they went 12-0 last year and had to go to the Poinsettia Bowl, and that they were run all over by TCU in the Bowl.  I do want to say that that was a great matchup and a great move by the bowl committee getting those two teams to match up.  But, Boise State always has their eyes on making the BCS.  To get there, they probably need to go undefeated.  Well, they host Oregon not just week 1, but day 1, Thursday Sept. 3rd.  It will be the hardest game for Boise State.  If they win, they should be in the top 10 going into week 2, and be favored in every single game for the rest of the year (theyre favored over Oregon as well).  

Here is why the next few years can play a big role in the history of Boise State football.  Until 2001, Boise State played in the Big West, which still exists but for basketball only.  They are obviously now in the WAC, and although they have been very successful since joining the WAC, it is still a relatively short time period.  Before the Oklahoma win, they were known as a good team, but of course were missing that big thing to put on their resume.  Now they have it.   They must continue to have success.  If they win 10+ games this year, they can put themselves in a position that next year or two years that they can have a legitimate shot for the national title.  It kinda goes back to what I was writing about with Utah.

Boise State only has 2 seniors on their team.  I have them preseason #12.  AthlonSports has them preseason #12.  Phil Steele has them 12, Espn.com 14, etc, you get the idea.  They are ranked very highly.  If they have a successful season this year, and then return 20 starters next year, will they get that top 10 preseason ranking?  If so, it fits one of the hypotheticals I outlined in my article entitled "hypotheticals".   Im getting way ahead of myself, but you can see where Boise State will continue to be something to talk about.  First they need to have a good year this year, then they would need to go undefeated next year with all the talent they have coming back to be considered for the national championship, but those are both very possible.  We already know from previous articles that 2008 BYU was the highest ranked non-BCS school preseason.  Boise St. has a chance to pass them this year.  Next year, they figure to be ranked even higher.  

They weren't the first non-BCS team to win a BCS game (Utah in 04), but their win was bigger than Utah's.  They will set the precedent with preseason rankings, and really testing the national championship picture.  Ill repeat it, if Utah were ranked 12th preseason last year, as Boise State is this year, and then they had the season they did, would they have gotten into the title game?  They were not ranked at all preseason last year.  It is a first hump, that is a major one, that these non-BCS teams need to get over.  In the coming years, Boise State will already be over this hump before the season starts.  It also opens up the possibilities of going 11-1, and making a BCS game - where as prior to now, all non-BCS teams that have gone to a BCS game have been undefeated.

But back to this year, again, their major test comes the first day of the season.  They beat Oregon last year in Eugene, but I think that Boise St. had a little more talent last year.  Their offense will be interesting to watch this year.  While Moore has one more year of experience, they lose their leading rusher and receiver.  The defense should be very good again, and I am really looking forward to the game against Oregon.  Since 2002, guess how many times Boise State has lost at home.  If you guessed zero, you would be right.  Oregon may be more talented than Boise to begin the year, but it is tough to argue with that home field advantage.  If Boise gets over the hump against Oregon, look for them to be in the BCS again this year.  If they don't, still count on 10 wins, and great things to come in the near future.

Final

9/3    Oregon       ----- Loss

9/12  Miami (OH)  ---- Win

9/18 @ Fresno St.  ---- Win

9/26 @ Bowling Green -- Win

10/3 UC Davis         ----- Win

10/14 @ Tulsa         ----- Win

10/24 @ Hawaii     ---- Win

10/31  San Jose St.  ---- Win

11/6 @ Louisiana Tech -- Win

11/14 Idaho               ---- Win

11/20 @ Utah St.       -- Win

11/27  Nevada            ---- Win

12/5  New Mexico St.  ---- Win

12-1   (8-0)

That isnt really the easiest schedule.  First off, they play 13 games.  Second, they go to Tulsa, which is another non-BCS team looking to compete with the big boys, and that game should be really good.  That will probably end up being Boise's 2nd hardest game behind Oregon, and then their 3rd hardest will be against Nevada.  PLaying 6 road games is not easy.  They play 4/5 on the road in that stretch between September and October.  That is tough for any team.  Should be another entertaining season for the Broncos

Number 13

13.  Ole Miss Rebels

It didn't take Houston Nutt long did it?  In one year, he implemented his offense (now called the Wild Rebel instead of Wild Hog), went 9-4, beat Florida, and won the Cotton Bowl.  Whats next for year 2?  The sky is the limit for the Rebels this year.

OFFENSE:

We all heard about the controversy regarding the Jevan Snead All-SEC vote.  The truth is is that hes not as good as Tebow (nobody is), but he is good.  He is only a Junior and is projected to be a top 10 NFL pick when he decides to come out.  He threw for 2672 yards and a 26-13 TD-INT ratio last year.  The INT total is too high, and is one of the reasons that the Rebels lost 4 games last year (more on this later).  The only games he didnt throw a pick in were against Auburn, Louisiana-Monroe, and Memphis --- he threw 2 against Samford.  With a full year of the offense under his belt, and another year of experience, he should produce over 3000 yards, and be closer to 30 TDs, and less than 10 INTs.  

The running game was effective, as you would expect under Nutt.  The team averaged 186.5 yards on the ground last year, good for 28th in the nation.  It's an attack that comes at you from all angles.  They return the 4 leading rushers from last year.  RB Condra Eason rushed for 647 yards, Brandon Bolden ran for 542 yards, and Derrick Davis rushed for 244 yards.   The most interesting player on the team is WR/RB Dexter McCluster.  He led the team in rushing last year with 655 yards, but also caught 44 passes for 625 yards.  He is the piece that makes the offense go, and is a matchup problem for defenses.  He combined for 180 yards in the Cotton Bowl.  They lose their best WR Mike Wallace, but they also return WR Shay Hodge, who caught 44 balls for 725 yards.  

But perhaps the best part of the offense was LT Michael Oher.  He of course is gone, taken in the first round of the draft.  The offensive line is a concern for Ole Miss.  The key to running the WildRebel is the same key to running the ball in any other situation.  You need to block up front to be successful.  Arkansas had McFadden and Jones, and Miami Dolphins have Williams and Brown, but they both also have/had a very good offensive line.  Miami could line up in I-Formation and be just as successful.  Now, this is not to say that the WildRebel doesn't cause any sort of confusion, it does.  That being said, if the offensive line fails, so will the formation.  The line only returns 2 starters, and features 2 sophomores.  The #1 key to their season will be how this offensive line performs.

DEFENSE:

Ole Miss won their final 6 games.  Going forwards, they allowed 21 to Arkansas, 7 to Auburn, 0 to Louisiana-Monroe, 13 to LSU, 0 to Mississippi State, and 34 to Texas Tech (which was TT's 2nd lowest total of the year.)  Needless to say, the defense stepped up big.  A big reason they beat Florida was the performance of their rush defense.  The team allowed only 85 yards/game in the ground, 4th best in the nation.  They only allowed 19 pts/game, which was good for 20th in the nation.  They return 9 starters to this side of the ball.  The main piece that theyre losing is DT Peria Jerry, who was taken by Atlanta 24th overall.  The Rebels averaged 3 sacks a game, which was good for 4th in the nation, but a big part of that was Jerry, who had 7.  The good news is that they get DE Greg Hardy back.  Hardy only played in spots last year, but still tallied 8.5 sacks.  He was just recently cleared to play, and it is uncertain how far away he is from being 100%, but he will be in a Rebel uniform.  

The secondary had some trouble last year, but 3 starters are back.  CB Marshay Greene won Defensive Player of the Cotton Bowl, and improved throughout the year.  Ive heard good things about MLB Jonathan Cornell and OLB transfer from Auburn Patrick Trahan.  The defense figures to be really good again this year despite losing Jerry.  

Looking at Ole Miss' results from last year is a little confusing.  They won their final 6 games and finished 9-4.  They played a close game against Alabama but ultimately lost.  They beat Florida.  Yet their other three losses were Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina.  All those teams were bowl teams last year, so they aren't the most embarrassing losses, but, those are the types of games you need to win if you want to be a BCS team.  One could argue that the team improved throughout the year, and they just weren't as strong in the beginning of the season when these losses occurred, and that certainly is a possibility, but lets look at something else;

They lost 30-28 to Wake Forest.  Ole Miss turned the ball over 3 times, WF once.  Ole Miss scored to take a 28-27 lead with 61 seconds left.  They kicked a touchback.  They then let Riley Skinner go down the field on them and let WF kick a FG with 8 seconds left.  They lost.

They lost 23-17 to Vanderbilt.  The score was 17-14 Ole Miss after the First Quarter.  That is, Ole Miss didn't score for the final three quarters.  They turned the ball over SIX times, 4 picks from Snead in what was unquestionably the worst game of the year for him.  Vanderbilt turned it over twice.

They lost 31-24 to South Carolina.  Again, Ole Miss was winning 14-3 after the first quarter.  Again, they had 3 turnovers, S. Carolina had 1.  They let Chris Smelley throw for 327 yards against them.  This was the week after they beat Florida.  Florida combined for 325 yards the week before.  Apparently Smelley > Florida.

They lost 24-20 to Alabama.  This game they were just outmatched.  They fell behind 24-3 and made a spirited comeback.  They did turn the ball over 3 times to Alabama's 2.  They did have the ball with 3 mins left, down 4, but they fell short.

So, over the course of the whole year, they had a -2 turnover margin, which 72nd in the nation.  In the 4 losses, their turnover margin was -9.  You cant win when you turn it over that often.  They also had a 3rd and Goal from the 1 against Vanderbilt in which they came away with no points.  There is just something intangible about Ole Miss that kept them from winning games (the tangible thing would be they turned the ball over too much, but there were more factors than that).  I know it seems like a dumb statement since they did beat Florida by 1, stopping Tebow on a 4th down, but that really was the lone exception.  Arkansas was the only other close game Ole Miss really played.  They won 23-21, and they were winning 20-7 going into the 4th quarter of the game.  I just dont think they have that indefinable quality that makes teams champions.  I could be wrong, but something about them rubs me the wrong way.  

The 2nd biggest win of the season came against TT in the Cotton Bowl.  Ole Miss turned the ball over 3 times, including a first quarter INT for a TD for Snead.  They did bounce back from an early 14-0 hole, I will credit them with that.  Ole Miss ran for over 200 yards in this game and TT had no chance of stopping them.  

Now, a kinda Ole Miss specific, but more of a general overall rant before the final schedule.  Schedules can only take you so far.  In general, the best team wins.  There is a huge thing every time schedules come out, and I myself get caught up looking at them.  I look where they play each other, which teams in the conference they dont play, what order do they play them in, etc.  Over the course of a season, the best team usually ends up on top.  You never really look at a team and say, theyre only there because of their schedule.  Thats not to say you cant schedule your way to 6 wins or a bowl or something like that.  Schedules could make the difference between 4th and 7th in a conference, but usually not the difference between 1st and 4th.  So that being said, Ole Miss plays an easy schedule.  They might win the SEC west, but if they do so, itll be because they're the best team, not because they don't play Florida and have an easier schedule.  It sounds kinda dumb, but it should make sense.  Ole Miss isn't better than Alabama just because they play in Oxford this year.  If they are better, we will see that throughout the year. 

Final:

9/6   @ Memphis       --------   Win

9/19  SE Louisiana     --------- Win

9/24 @ S. Carolina     ---------- Win

10/3 @ Vanderbilt      --------- Win

10/10 Alabama          ---------- Loss

10/17 UAB                  --------- Win

10/24  Arkansas        --------- Win

10/31 @ Auburn         -------- Win

11/7  N. Arizona          -------- Win

11/14 Tennessee         --------- Win

11/21  LSU                   --------- Loss

11/28 @ Miss. St.       --------- Win

The beginning of that schedule is really screwy.  They play on a Sunday to start.  Then they have a week off.  Then they play on a Thursday quickly against S. Carolina.  That game could be trouble for Ole Miss.

10-2    (6-2)

Number 14

14.  Georgia Bulldogs

Saying Georgia is going to be down or bad this year is like saying in 1989 that Metallica's "And Justice For All" wouldn't be good because they didnt have Cliff Burton.  That, or James Cameron's 1997 film "Titanic" wouldn't be good because it wasn't an action film like his previous films.  Or more accurately, any Patriots team wouldn't be good for a minor player that they lost over the years, including Brady.  Or, for this year, that the Colts won't be good because they dont have Marvin Harrison.  You get the idea.  Sure, the Bulldogs lose Matthew Stafford and Knoshown Moreno, but the pieces are there just like with all the other examples.  It doesn't mean that the new version will suck, and in a lot of ways it could be better.

OFFENSE:

All of that doesn't mean that they don't have to replace Stafford and Moreno.  The two accounted for nearly 90% of the team's offense.  QB Joe Cox is figured to be the replacement.  He is a senior, and has only played sparingly throughout his career.  There to help him out will be sophomore WR A.J. Green.  Green will be the best WR since Hines Ward for the Bulldogs when its all said and done.  Unlike Ward, he is 6'4" and is a matchup nightmare for defenses.   There will be a running back by committee approach.  FIguring into the mix are sophomore Caleb King and sophomore Richard Samuel.  King got the majority of the carries last year, but Samuel had a higher average.  IT will be interesting to see who emerges from this battle.

The biggest boost the Bulldogs get is the return of LT Trinton Sturdivant, who went down with an injury early last season.  The line is young, but already has experience.  They return 4/5 starters, and then Sturdivant, yet there are 4 sophomores and 1 junior.  With an inexperienced QB and RB in the backfield, they certainly need to dominate.  Anything less, and the offense could be in some trouble.  Tackle Clint Boling and Center Ben Jones have been getting some preseason love in the All-Conference and All-American honors.

DEFENSE:

Im torn on the defense this year.  In general, Georgia has played excellent defense the past 5-6 years.  Last year, they were down a bit.  THey allowed 41 to Alabama, 49 to Florida, 38 to LSU, 38 to Kentucky, and their worst game, 45 to Georgia Tech.  Yet, they looked okay against Michigan State in the Citrus Bowl.  Still, they allowed 24.5 pts/game, 59th in the nation.  That just isnt UGA Football.  There are plenty of stars on this defense, and picking one to be THE star seems foolish.  If I had to pick one it would be LB Rennie Curran.  The guy totaled 115 tackles, 10 for loss as a sophomore last year.  Hes listed as being 5'11" 222 lbs, which doesn't seem possible.  DT Geno Atkins is being projected as a 1st round draft choice.  The secondary returns two of it's starters, which includes Safety Reshad Jones.  While the defense wasn't outstanding last year, it could be this year.  

There were a few problems last year with Georiga.  The #1 ranking they received was too high obviously.  That doesn't mean they weren't good, its just that to some predictions, they didn't live up to expectations.  The problems started with the offensive line getting banged up.  Then, no one realized that the defense was actually pretty young.  But, most people saw that Stafford and Moreno were Heisman contenders, and anointed them the best team.  That, and they had a brutal schedule.  You can't win a championship if you dont have a good defense, you lose a bunch of linemen to injury, and you're playing a disaster schedule.  

The key this year will then be of course, eliminating those problems that they had last year, and addressing the new ones that arise.  I see it playing out like this:

THe offensive line will be better if they stay healthy -- you can't bet on injuries, but lets say they stay healthy, then they will improve this area.

The defense will be better.  This is the surest thing of the problems they had last year.

Their schedule is still tough, as well see.  It doesnt help when you have a young team.

Now for the possible problems facing the new team, we know them already:

Who will replace Stafford/Moreno?

Well, not who, we know who, but will they be effective?  That will be the major issue, at least for the first few games.  They allegedly have some sure-thing Freshmen at QB is Cox doesn't work out, but I don't think they want to have to get to that.  If they end up switching QBs mid-season once theyre in SEC play, theyll look a lot like LSU did last year, and fall off.  The running game will stem off of the success of the offensive line.  They can't just throw the ball to A.J. Green every play, as much as they may like to.  

Every time around draft year, you hear one thing when they are talking about drafting a QB, WR, Linemen, etc.  You build your team from the inside to the out.  Now, as nice of a player as A.J. Green is at WR, hes really the most expendable.  The most important pieces on EVERY football team are the offensive and defensive lines.  As Ive already said, I like what Georgia has on both lines.  It is possible, and well see what happens, that you can replace Moreno with a back of lesser talent, and Stafford with a QB of lesser talent, and actually improve on offense.  Georgia plays a murderer's row again, but by the end of the year they will be one of the stronger teams.

Final:

9/5  @ Oklahoma St.   -------- Loss

9/12 South Carolina      ------- Win

9/19 @ Arkansas           -------- Win

9/26  Arizona St.           ------- Win

10/3   LSU                       ------ Loss

10/10 @ Tennessee      -------- Win

10/17 @ Vanderbilt       -------- Win

10/31 Florida (in JAX)  ------- Loss

11/7  Tennessee Tech      ------- Win

10/14  Auburn                 ------ Win

10/21 Kentucky               ------- Win

10/28 @ Georgia Tech   ------- Loss

The only easy game on this schedule is the visit from Tenn Tech.  I really bet they wish they had that game in September.  Its nice to break up the SEC play in November and have an easy week, but when you play S. Carolina, and go to Stillwater and Fayeteville in the first three weeks, well, thats hard.  That, and UGA figures to be better than Vanderbilt and Tenn, but traveling to both of those stadiums will not be easy.  As far as the first game goes, I still think that the Ok. State -3 is a trap.  While UGA does have name recognition over OK. State, anyone can look at the preseason top 25 standings, see that Ok. St. will probably be ranked higher, see the game is in Stillwater, and bet on the Cowboys.  THat, and everyone knows that UGA has lost Moreno and Stafford.  Who would bet on UGA?  Well, that is one reason why I think that UGA can shock the Cowboys Week 1.  That, and you know how I dont like the PowderPuff-12 (Big12), and that if Georgia's defense clicks instantly, they will be trouble for the Cowboys.  It is just a matter of how quickly they gel.  If this game were played in November, I would like the BUlldogs chances a lot more, but even on Week 1, you can't bet against UGA.

8 - 4   (6-2)

Teams just missing the cut

The rest of the teams in my top 25 should come as no surprise.  There may be a few change ups as far as where I have them ranked and where most other publications have them ranked, but its a similar top 14 left.  So I want to give props to the teams that just made the cut.  These wont be in any particular order or anything, and are just some teams off the top of my head that are "right there".

Oregon State:

I said this wasn't in any type of order, but they probably would be my 26.  Im surprised myself that I didn't include them in the Top 25.  They were one win away from the Rose Bowl last year.  Remember when they beat USC?  Remember when they kicked USC's ass?  Oregon State is the only team in the nation to have beaten USC twice since 2003.  If not for a Reggie Bush punt return for a touchdown in 2004, the number might have been 3 times.  This year they return RB Jacquizz Rodgers, QB Lyle Moevao, but only 3 starters on the defense.  It seems like every year you forget about Oregon State, or write them off (they started 0-2 last year), and then they finish strong and are a factor in November.  They have won 28 games the past 3 years.  Expect them to be a factor again this November.

Nebraska Cornhuskers:

Year one of the Bo Pellini era was a big success.  The Cornhuskers won 10 games, and were back in a January bowl.  Despite Pellini's defensive background, the Huskers won most of their games by having a dangerous offense.  Joe Ganz re-wrote the record books, but hes gone now.  The Huskers only return 4 starters on offense, most of them on the line.  RB Roy Helu Jr. is now a Junior, and expect him to be a the next good Huskers RB.  The defense must improve for the Huskers to win the BIg12 North.  The bright spot of the defense is DT Ndamukong Suh, who was unblockable in the Gator Bowl.  He is projected everywhere to be a first rounder, and many places have him in the top 10 of next years draft.  Under Pellini, the defense figures to improve.

Miami Hurricanes:

Miami's signature win came last year when they beat Va. Tech 16-14.  QB Jacory Harris didnt play full time, but when he did he showed signs of promise.  He is only a sophomore now.  They also return leading RB Graig Cooper, and leading WR Aldarius Johnson.  It is overall, a very young team.  The defense features only 3 seniors, and figures to start 5 sophomores.  The start of their schedule is absolutely brutal:  @ FSU, Ga Tech, @ Va. Tech, Oklahoma.  I dont know how theyre gonna do it, but if they can go 2-2, they will have a very successful season.  It sounds pessimistic, but more likely, they will be 0-4 to start.  I still think they can be one of the top 30 teams.  The tough schedule will only help this young team in the long run.  Next year they can be a favorite in the ACC.

Northwestern Wildcats:

I just cant say enough about Pat Fitzgerald.  In his first full year, he took the Wildcats to a 6-6 record, but no bowl berth.  Feeding off of that, the Wildcats jumped up last year and went 9-4, pushing heavily favored Mizzou to the limit in the Alamo Bowl.  It was no accident either.  They were successful by playing solid defense.  Eight starters return on the defense, which can be very, very good this year.  DE Corey Wootton will be a first round pick next year in the draft.

QB Mike Kafka will begin his first full year as QB, but he has some experience filling in for C.J. Bacher.  Kafka gives them another threat to run the ball.  Losing RB Tyrell Sutton, and WR Eric Peterman are the biggest blows to the team.  Even still, expect NW to win 8-9 games and return to a bowl game.

Cincinnati Bearcats:

My only Big East team on any sort of a radar here.  While I think that Rutgers may ultimately win the league, that is like throwing a dart at a dartboard evenly divided among the 7 teams in the Big East (there are 8 teams in the Big East, but Syracuse doesnt get invited to the dart board game).  Cinci is of course the defending champions, and they return seven starters to the offense.  The big combo that returns is QB Tony Pike and WR Mardy Gilyard.  Pike threw for 2407 yards, and 1200 of those were to Gilyard.  They also return two 600 yd+ rushers; Jacob Ramsey and John Goebel.  How could a team returning so much talent that won 11 games last year not be ranked you ask?  Well they won mostly with defense, and they return 1 starter.  They are a combined 21-6 the past two years, so maybe when its all said and done, the joke will be on me.  They play @ Rutgers the first week of the season, and go to Corvallis Week 3.  Both of those games will be very interesting.

Thats about it.  I just want to mention how much I dislike conference teams playing each other Week 1.  Its really dumb.  You shouldnt have to bury yourself early before you even know all of your personnel, what works, etc.  Ideally, you should want to play a Div-II school or someone shitty week 1, a good, non conference team week 2/3, and then 2 bad teams the other week of week 2/3 and week 4, and then start your conference.  I know the Big 10 plays their 4th non conf opponent in the middle of the season, like October, and that is okay I guess; (I know Illinois plays 2 non conf opponents after they play everyone in the BIg10, and I dont like that).  The fact that cinci plays Rutgers and FSU plays Miami the first week is dumb.  Games like Ok. State vs UGA and VT vs Bama are nice matchups for the first week for the fans, but these games would be better if they played just one or two weeks later.  For example, VT plays Marshall week 2, and Alabama plays Florida Intl Week 2.  Wouldnt it be better if VT played Bama week 2, and they played those opponents mentioned Week 1?  We kinda see this with OSU playing Navy Week 1, and USC playing San Jose St., and then the two teams hooking 9/12 in the Horseshoe:

Which means in just a little over 1,000 hours you will hear:

"YOU ARE LOOKING LIVE, at a sold out Horseshoe, where 100,000 thousand plus are here, to cheer on the Buckeyeeeeesssss, as they welcome the Trojans from Southern Callllllll.  Hello everyone, Im Brent Musburger"

Number 15

15. California Golden Bears

Since Jeff Tedford took over in 2002, the Golden Bears have not had a losing season.  In the previous five years, the Bears won just 12 games combined.  This turnaround started off as a minor miracle, and has led to Cal becoming a minor dynasty.  The Bears are 5-1 in Bowl Games under Tedford (they werent invited to a bowl game in 2002 because of academic issues from a previous administration), and shared a conference title in 2006.  They put their stamp on the program with a triple overtime win over USC in 2003.  Still, there is one thing that is on every Bears' fans mind: no Rose Bowl since 1959.

OFFENSE:

RB Jahvid Best is the leading returner in rushing yards in the nation.  He rushed for 1580 yards and 15 TDs, and posted an 8.1 yd/carry average.  Ill ignore the fact that he rushed for 311 yards and 4 TDs against Washington, because he didnt even play against Arizona State due to injury.  He is the real deal.  The only concerning note is that he only rushed for 30 yards against USC, 25 yards against Maryland, and 93 against Oregon.  The first two of those games the Bears lost.  Another positive is that he was only a sophomore last year.  I would not be surprised if he came closer to 2000 yards this year rushing.  If he isn't the best RB in the nation, hes in the top 3.

The team never found out who their QB was last year, and now they have Kevin Riley by default (Nate Longshore graduated).  As the old adage goes, if you have 2 QBs, you really have none.  It was a flip a coin type system with the two last year.  Sometimes they would both play in a game, sometimes it would be just Riley, sometimes it would be just Longshore.  Riley only threw for 1300 yards last year, (in obvious limited duty), but did have a 14-6 TD-INT ratio.  However, what is concerning is that he only completed 50.7% of his passes.  

There is no DeSean Jackson on this team.  The leading Bears receiver, Nyan Boateng, caught 29 balls for 439 yards.  The best threat though is probably TE Cameron Morrah, who caught 27 balls, 8 for TDs.  Its a chicken or the egg type problem that Cal has.  Are the WRs struggling because they cant find a consistent QB, or can they not find a consistent QB because the WRs are below average?  Ill take the easy way out and say that its never that clear cut, and its probably a mix of both.  Its actually pretty remarkable that Best was as effective as he was last year without a threat from the passing game.  Returning their three leading WRs and having a clear cut QB going into the Spring and Summer can only help their passing game.  You dont expect the Bears to put up gaudy numbers through the air, but they dont have to with Best.  All they have to do is not turn it over through the air, and establish a average balance to keep the defense on their toes.   They only return two linemen, and the line is projected to be full of Sophomores and Juniors.

DEFENSE:

The defense played really well last year --- in the games that they won.  In their four losses, they allowed: 35 points to Maryland, 42 to Arizona, 17 to USC, and 34 to Oregon State.  All of those are high point totals, except for USC of course.  And in each game, the offense played well enough to win.  The highest point total that Cal allowed in a win was 31 against Michigan St, the first week.  Their next highest was 20, against UCLA.  That is pretty impressive.  Their most impressive outing probably came against Oregon, when they won 26-16.  This game is coming up in a few days on ESPNU and Ill watch it for you guys.  The defense is led by CB Syd'Quan Thompson.  In fact, they return all of their secondary, and all of their defensive line.  The problem is they only return 1 of their 4 linebackers, (they run a 3-4), but they should be alright.  Cal finished 14th in the nation in sacks last year.  They return their man sack men - Defensive Ends Tyson Alualu and Cameron Jordan.  

The team also finished 7th in the nation in turnover margin last year.  They were on average +1.15 per game.  Think about the team that I just described to you.  They have the best RB in the nation.  They finished top 15 in sacks and have their whole D-Line back.  According to Athlon Sports, they have the 4th best secondary, and they finished 7th in the nation in turnover margin.  On top of that, they have the 1st Team All American Punter - Bryan Anger.  Does that sound like a team that can win some ball games?   You bet your ass it does.  The team will not be much different from last year; that is, their focus will be on running the ball, playing defense, not shooting themselves in the foot, and having sound special teams.  Just the fundamentals, nothing fancy.  There is just one huge roadblock in the way - USC.   The 2003 win I mentioned earlier is the only time that Cal has beaten USC in the Tedford era.  That doesnt mean they havent come close.... they are 1-6 against USC and the 6 losses are by a combined 65 points.  Will this be the year that they get over the hump?  Well, for starters, they have USC in Berkeley.  Also, it has become a conception that USC will be down this year, and that this is the year to go get em.  But beating USC, and winning the Pac10 overall means that they have to establish some sort of passing game.  I think the pieces are there otherwise.  Their defense will be good, they can run the ball, and they have good special teams.  If they can establish any sort of passing game, they, along with Oregon and USC, will make the Pac-10 very fun, and very competitive this year.

Final Predictions:

9/5   Maryland ........... Win

9/12 E. Washington .... Win

9/19 @ Minnesota    .... Win

9/26 @ Oregon       ....... Loss

10/3 USC                 ....... Loss

10/17 @ UCLA        ....... Win

10/24 Washington St. ... Win

10/31 @ Arizona St.  ..... Win

11/7 Oregon State      ..... Win

11/14 Arizona             ..... Win

11/21 @ Stanford       ..... Win

12/5 @ Washington     .... Win

10 -2 (6-2)

There were some grumblings from Berekley when the times of some games were released.  Among them, they discovered that they play Minnesota at 9:00 AM PST.  Last year, they played Maryland at Noon EST/9:00 PST, and looked asleep during the first three quarters.  They blame their loss on this fact.  Whether or not its true, I can't really say.  I know that playing in high school, it was a lot harder to play on a Saturday afternoon than on a Friday night, so maybe there is some sort of truth to it.  The game should also be interesting because it will only be the second game in Minnesota's new stadium.  If they worry too much about it being 9 AM back in Berkley, they will probably lose.  It really shouldnt matter that much.  They were particularly upset though because Arizona is playing in Iowa that same day, and their game is on at 230 CST / 1230 PST.   

Other than that, Cal may know if theyre in the drivers seat or dead in the water by the time the MLB playoffs begin.  As you can see, they play Oregon and USC back to back to start the Pac10 Season.  No wins is no good, a split is possible, and a sweep would be phenomenal.

Number 16

16. Virginia Tech Hokies

This is likely to be the other selection to draw some criticism.  Most other publications will have the Hokies ranked higher than 16.  There is some indefinable quality about Virginia Tech that I just don't like.  Hearing the term "Beamer Ball" makes me want to punch myself in the face.  They seem to always lose when I bet on them.  They covered on a backdoor touchdown in the 2005 Sugar Bowl when I had Auburn -7.  I dont like Beamer.  Despite my old aged negativity, Virginia Tech does something right that produces winning season after winning season.   They have the third longest bowl streak in the nation; since 1993 (Fla and FSU have longer).  They have won the ACC in back to back years.  They had the great season in 1999 that led them to the National Championship Game.  They also do it by running the ball, playing good defense, and out-executing the other team on special teams plays.  By all accounts, they are a team that I should like, but I just dont.  

 

OFFENSE:

To me, it was ridiculous that it took as long as it did for Tyrod Taylor to secure the starting quarterback position.  The fact that he split any time with Sean Glennon is beyond me.  Regardless, he is now the definite #1 option.  Despite the threat that Taylor provides to run the ball, he was largely ineffective through the air last year.  He threw for 1,036 yards, and had a TD-INT ratio of 2-7.  He did also rush for 737 yards and 7 TDs.  (I know youre probably asking why I would be so high on Taylor over Glennon when Taylor produced bad numbers, well, Glennon didnt produce good ones last year either.)  Do I even need to say it?  He needs to cut down on the turnovers.  

The running game will be the strength of the offense.  You have the aforementioned Taylor.  Secondly, you have RB Darren Evans.  He rushed for 1265 yards and 11 TDs as a Freshman last year; very impressive.  Guard Sergio Render is an All-American is most publications, and the Hokies return 3/5 linemen overall.  Render is a projected 1st rd draft pick for the NFL draft.   It will be a run first offense, and with the threat of Taylor, it could produce some good results.

WRs Jarrett Boykin and Danny Coale were both freshmen last year, and they combined to catch 66 passes for 849 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Those are pretty productive numbers for receivers that had inconsistent quarterback play.  Boykin especially came on strong last year; he didnt even play in two of the first three games.  Having another year of experience on their side (or should I say A year), and a year working with Tyrod Taylor exclusively will only help.  Their touchdown numbers need to improve, but that really relies heavily on the arm of Taylor.  

Virginia Tech finished 111th in passing offense last year.  103rd overall in yardage, and 90th in scoring, averaging just 22 pts/game.  How did they win the ACC?  Well, you can guess that it was with defense, and you would be right, but lets ignore the deficiencies they had on offense.  There are two ways to look at this:

1) If their defense was just a little worse; they would barely be a bowl team.  They beat Ga. Tech and UNC by a score of 20-17, and beat Virginia 17-14.  

2) If their offense was a little better, they could have been in the title game.  They lost 22-27 to ECU, 23-28 to BC, 20-30 to FSU, 14-16 to Miami.  But, as you can see, in all of those games, the defense gave up more than their average in terms of points (they gave up an average of 16/game and they gave up 16 to Miami, the only tie.)  So ironically, the offense played above average in the games that they lost.  

We know that they got a punt blocked for a TD against ECU.....OMG!!!! Beamer Ball got out Beamer Balled!??!?!

They gave up a punt return for a TD against BC...but also returned a pick for a TD.  They also made 2 45 yard field goals....they just got outplayed.  They totaled 240 yards the whole game.....forget what I said about the offense playing better in the games they lost.

Guess how many yards they totaled against FSU?  243, close to the 240 total they had against BC.   They were winning 10-0 and couldnt hold it.

They tallied up 250 yards in the loss to Miami.  That, and only 14 points.  

*** For the record they had 243 yards total against E. Carolina.

So how do you have a 1200 yard rusher and have your offense suck so bad?   I dont know really.  I will say a few things.  1) They need to obviously find a consistent passing game.  They beat Ga. Tech - but in that game they threw for 48 yards.  Not a misprint.  They beat Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl on 84 yards passing.  You dont have to totally redefine who you are or what you do, but you need to improve it.  You cant throw for 129 yd/game and have a 0.5 - 1 TD-INT ratio and expect to win the ACC every year.  

DEFENSE:

As said above, they have won in the past few years, including last, because of their defense.  They were 9th in the nation in scoring defense, and 7th in yardage.  Also, they had a +1.00 turnover ratio, which ties for 10th in the nation.  They lose some important pieces however.  Macho Harris is in the NFL now.  They also lose LB Purnell Sturdivant and LB Brett Warren.  The stars that they have coming back are S Kam Chancellor and DE  Jason Worilds.  CB Stephan Virgil also returns, and he tied Harris for the team lead in INTs last year with 6.  

There was no margin for error for the Hokies defense last year, and for the most part, they did not disappoint.  Like I said, if not for the defense, this team could have been 6-6.  However, I think that the defense will take a slight step back this year.  There is a hole in the middle of it that needs to be fixed.  That being said, the offense cant be anything but better.  Will they improve in the way that they need to?  That is, if the offense stays consistent, and the defense downgrades, they are not going to win many games.  If the offense improves, and the defense downgrades, will the offense improve enough?  I would like to think that the offense can improve drastically this year.  They have a 1200+ yd rusher, a threat to rush at QB, and some returning receivers.  Also, all of the skill position players were Freshmen last year.  Now if they can combine an improved offense with a similar defense, they can beat Alabama and be in competition for a national championship.  I dont see it though.  I still feel that they're just a bland team.  They wont be anywhere near dominant on offense, and I think theyll lose a few steps on defense too.  

( I dont know why the following is double spaced)

Final Predictions;

9/5 Alabama   (in ATL)  ..... Loss

9/12 Marshall ..... Win

9/19 Nebraska ... Win

9/26 Miami .... Win

10/3 @ Duke .... Win

10/10 Boston College ..... Win

10/17 @ Ga. Tech       ..... Loss

10/29 North Carolina .... Win

11/5 @ E. Carolina      ---- Loss

11/14 @ Maryland       ..... Win

11/21 N.C. State           ..... Win

11/28 @ Virginia          ..... Win

9-3 (7-1)

This, in fact, is actually an improvement from last year.  last year they went 8-4, and 5-3 in the ACC.  A lot of these are again swing games.  I had them losing to Miami until the very last second, and I switched it.  You know I am obviously high on UNC and N.C. State this year, and would not be surprised if either team beat VT.  There are going to be a lot of close games in HokieLand, just like last year.  They could win em all, or they can be 7-5.

As far as the Alabama game goes, Im already on the record as saying that it looks like Alabama -4 is a trap.  I actually like VT in that game.  Why?  Well both teams should have a good defense this year, and I guess that VT, as deficient as they were on offense, return more offensive starters than Alabama.  There will be a new QB and RB for Bama week 1 against that defense, and that isnt the easiest task for a newcomer.  The more and more I think about it, the more I think that it will be a very good game.  As usual, its so hard to predict the first week, and I guess you have to give the initial lean to Alabama, but it should be a close, low scoring game -- 13-10 Bama?  That would give Bama the win and VT the cover........

Oklahoma vs Texas

I had the pleasure (not) of watching the replay of this game last night.  I wanted to wait to talk about this until I got to Texas and Oklahoma in the top 25 previews, but I just couldnt wait.  I had never seen the game before, as being a Midwesterner, something else was on at this time slot (I want to say UNC vs ND).  So all I got to see were highlights, and maybe if they showed a replay during the week I caught one or two drives (believe it or not, but at the time of this game I was working).  Well, to my fellow midwesterners and anyone else who may have missed the game, let me let you in on a little secret, and something that the NCAA probably doesnt want you to know.

The game sucked.

Or as Al Czervik would say

"this place sucks, thats right it sucks, the only reason im here is maybe ill buy it"

And then Smails says:

"BUY BUSHWOOD!?!?!?"

Anyway, the game was terrible.  You say, well, it was #1 Oklahoma vs #5 Texas, it was the Red River Rivalry, it  was a 45-35 final, it should have determined 1/2 of the championship game (in the cruel twist, it obviously didnt; Oklahoma lost and still made the title game), how could it be that bad?  Well, let's begin:

For starters, the officiating was downright atrocious.  Just inexcusably bad.  For the first half, the officiating, and the game overall, were average.  But then, the second half changed everything.  There were four (3 in the second half) personal foul plays.  Zero of them were legit.  All of them were crucial parts of the game.  You know like, when you stop a team, and they punt, and when the punter punts ha falls down when no one touches him, and they call a foul and the punting team gets to keep the ball?  Yeah, it happened.

Even Musburger and Herbstreit were very, very, very critical of the officiating staff.  Perhaps more critical than any other announce team of a game ever.  Now in the past, announce teams have been critical maybe of one particular call, and have been more riled up over it than Brent and Kirk were during this game, but over the ENTIRE game, the number of bad calls and the number of times Brent and Kirk were critical is probably a record.  Brent usually says whats on his mind, is critical when necessary, and lets you know who he has money on by the middle of the 1st quarter (he had Oklahoma), but for Herbstreit to be critical, you know the officiating must have been bad.  They were laughing hysterically at one point at how bad the officiating was, and at different points of the game, compared the game to flag football and soccer.  Is that what you want to hear when its #1 vs #5?

Other than the main, major blown calls, the officiating crew was generally obtrusive.  Here are two sequences I would like to describe to you.  One involves the officials, one doesn't really.  These are both in the 4th quarter, you know, when intensity is supposed to be at its highest and stuff:

After a running into the kicker that didnt happen, Oklahoma maintains possession of the ball.  They were down 30-28, but they score to go up 34-30.  Small Game Bob decides to go for 2.  Texas calls timeout because they dont have enough men on the field.  After the timeout, they still dont have enough men on the field, and a defensive lineman rushes out there, just in time.  Oklahoma though, false starts, 5 yard penalty.  Since they are backed up 5 yards, Oklahoma decides to go for 1.  They cant line up right, and Oklahoma calls a timeout because of this.  After their timeout, they finally kick the FG, and make it 35-30.   Does that sound like 2 of the 3 best teams in the nation.

On the very next drive.  Colt McCoy finds Jordan Shipley over the middle for what would end up putting Texas up for good.  Shipley catches it at about the 20, runs up the middle, gets a huge block from Quan Cosby (highlight of the game, Cosby sent this dude flying 5 yards, no exaggeration),  and is dragged down at like the one inch line.  His momentum carries him in. 

 At first glance, live, I thought it was a touchdown.  The line judge signaled touchdown immediately.  The field judge said he was down.  Texas and their fans are going wild.  We go to, instant replay.  90 seconds later they determine that the ball should be on the one inch line.  THen Herbstreit says: "this is a big difference, thats a big call in this situation.  Texas doesn't really have that big bruiser running back that can punch it in from short yardage."  So what happens?  First play, they give it to RB Cody Johnson who runs THROUGH the whole end zone untouched.  It wasnt even close.  Everyone on the Texas offensive line blew everyone on Oklahoma's defense 5-6 yards back.  He could have crawled in.  I probably could have ran the ball in.  So, unfortunately, Herbstreit was wrong.  By the way........Cody Johnson had 3 rushes in this game for 3 touchdowns.  No joke, 100% rushing - Touchdown ratio.  Hes 5'11" 255 pounds.  Over the course of the year he only had 76 carries but 12 Touchdowns.  Maybe Herbstreit's definition of a 'big bruiser running back' differs from mine, but I think that Johnson fits the bill.

Does that sound like a game you want to listen to/watch???

Watch the Cosby block here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbSaXAEoYvQ&feature=related

Can I first say something about Small Game Bob, which will be known as SGB from now on on this blog (I like it, its kinda like KGB from Rounders, but way shittier).  He earned the moniker "big game bob" because when he was fresh at Oklahoma, they beat Texas a few years in a row and they won the Orange Bowl and National Title.  Fast Forward a few years, and look at his past bowl games now:

2009 national championship:  L 14-24 to Florida........ Oklahoma was a 3 pt Underdog

2008 Fiesta Bowl:  L 48-28 to W. Virginia .....   Oklahoma was an 8 pt Favorite 

2007 Fiesta Bowl: L 43 - 42 to Boise St.     .... Oklahoma was a 7.5 pt Favorite

2005 Holiday Bowl: W 17-14 to Oregon      .... cant find the spread....I would guess Ore was favored

2005 national championship: L 55-19 to USC ... I want to say USC was favored by 3?

2004 national championship:  L 21-14 to LSU .. Dont remember the spread.  This was the year Oklahoma was #3 in the AP but somehow #1 in the BCS.....that worked out.

2003 Rose Bowl:  W 34 -14 to Washington State....  dont remember the spread.

So Stoops is 2-5 in his last 7 bowl games, and 0-5 in the last 5 BCS games.  He also has lost to Texas three of the last four years.  How could anyone justify the moniker Big Game Bob?  Thats why I have even taken it the other route.  Wow, Oklahoma has top 5 talent EVERY YEAR, and they can beat the likes of Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas St., etc.  But they dont beat Texas, and they cant win a bowl game.  Embarrassing.  

So how does any of this relate?  Well, just look at the 2 games Oklahoma lost last year.  Well start with Texas.  Oklahoma jumps out to a 21-10 lead.  They obviously blow the game.  The #1 offense in the nation only scores 7 points in the 4th quarter, and those came off of penalties.  They shit the bed basically.  Also, they couldn't stop Texas.  Musburger (remember who had Oklahoma), was rationalizing his loss by saying that LB Ryan Reynolds got hurt mid game.  True, losing Reynolds did hurt, but when you let another team go down the field twice, for 154 yards, in 2 drives in the 4th quarter, you are going to get beat.  They just couldnt stop Texas; Texas wore them down.  When Oklahoma went up 14-3, they let Shipley return the ensuing kickoff to get the deficit back to 4.  At a crucial part of the game, Oklahoma was winning 28-27.  There was about 5 mins left in the third quarter.  It was 4th and 6 from the Oklahoma 48.  

They ran a fake punt.  Came up short, and the game was over at that point.  Texas ended up kicking a field goal that drive, but they outscored Oklahoma 18-7 the rest of the game.  If you have the #1 offense in the nation, and you want to go for it on 4th down, why not just send the offense out there?  Why run a fake punt?  I dont understand this.  Generally, you want to run fake punts right when it seems like the momentum is shifting to another team, so Stoops was kinda right in this sense.  But, I say, to never run a fake punt when you're winning.  They were winning.  Punt the ball, make Texas go 80 yards, and, if they do, youll get the ball back with your offense.

Think of the signals this sends.  It says you dont have faith in the offense to pick up 6 yards.  Funny how you couldnt, they are #1 in the nation and Bradford did throw for 5 TDs this game.  It says you dont have confidence in the defense.  "It doesnt matter if we kick it deep or give it to them here, we cant stop them."  And it shows you dont have faith in the special teams to effectively cover the punt (remember they did give up a kick return for a TD earlier in the game).  So Stoops just basically says, I dont have any confidence in anything, fuck it, Ill run a fake punt.  It ended up costing them the game.

But, I said, lets look at the two losses they had last year.   Look at the title game.  It was 0-0 after the 1st quarter - neither team really threatened.  Three plays into the 2nd Quarter, Florida scores.  Oklahoma comes out and runs Chris Brown 3 times for 16, 15, 14 yards in a row.  Boom.  They score 3 plays later and its 7-7....good game so far.   Next drive, Tebow throws a pick in his own territory.

This is where Oklahoma starts to blow it.  Chris Brown rushed for 17 yards down to the 9.  Then for 5, then for 3, then for 0.  Its 4th and Goal from the 1.  I know that he has confidence in Brown since he just had a few nice runs in a row.  But, you take the points.

Repeat, you take the points.   Its a 7-7 game in the national championship.  ITs already been proven its not gonna be 66-56 or something like the stupid games against Texas Tech and other Big12 opponents.  Its going to be low scoring.  You take the fucking points.   They dont, they run the ball, they dont get it.  3 points off the board, momentum shift back to Florida.  

Florida gets some breathing room but has to punt.  Oklahoma takes over with 2:30 left to play.  They drive the field.  First off, it should be mentioned that the first play of Florida's drive after the stopped 4th down, Oklahoma had to use a timeout.  Basically, they get down to FLorida's six yard line.  1st and goal from the 6.  10 seconds left, and they burn their last timeout.  (They didnt have the wisdom to get out of bounds).  Anything short of the end zone and they run out of time.  They could probably get one crack at the end zone and then kick a fg, or they could kick it now.   What do they do?  What would you do?  What would I do?

Id probably throw a real quick fade route, that although has a low % chance of being complete, puts it where only my guy can catch it.  It limits chance of an INT, a sack, and doesnt run 10 secs off the clock.  Then Id kick the FG.

Oklahoma runs a pattern that is short of the endzone.  Major Wright intercepts the ball, but even if he didnt, Oklahoma would have been down at the 1 and would have run out of time. 

 There is at least 6 points that Stoops left off the board.  Could easily be 13-7 at this point, if not worse.

Oklahoma stops Florida on the first drive.  They get the ball and are driving with it.  They have 1st and 10 at the Florida 38.  Do they throw the ball with the Heisman trophy winner?  Do they give it to Brown who has been very effective?  No, they run the ball to Mossis Madu, who gains 2 yards.  Okay, not the end of the world.  2nd an 8, they run it again, to Madu.  He only had 4 carries this game, 2 of them were there.  He loses two yards, and its 3rd and 10.  This again was terrible execution.  3rd down they throw an incompletion and they have to punt.  

Floridas next drive, they just give the ball to Tebow every play.  He runs for a big first down, gets up and starts waving his arms and yelling at everybody on both teams, and you say, yup, this game is over.  And it was at that point.  Florida punches it in.  

Oklahoma drives down to the Florida 28 yd line.  3rd and 1, they give it to Brown who loses 4 

yards.  Brown is not effective in this short yardage it appears.  Now, losing 14-7, they attempt a 49 yard field goal.  After passing on those two other opportunities that were basically extra points when the game was tied, they will attempt a 49 yd fg when they are losing by 7.  Its blocked.  

But they stop Florida again.  The defense is actually playing pretty well.  They start the next drive at their own 23, and go 77 yards.  Chris Brown touches it 5 times in a row to get the ball to the FLA 20 (yeah 57 yds on his own), then Bradford connects with Grisham two times in a row to tie the game up.  Real hard there, Brown, and throw it to the TE who is gonna be a top 5 pick next year in the draft.  Tie Game.

So Oklahoma's defense then gives up a big Harvin run to get the Gators a FG, and Bradford is picked off.  10 minutes left, Florida ball midfield, and they do the same thing that Texas did to Oklahoma.  They make em bleed.  Tebow completes every pass, they run it up their ass, and they score after eating up 7 mins.  The game is over, its 24-14 with 3 mins left.  

So if this were the SAT, and they said what do the two games have in common, what would you say?   

1) Terrible special teams play/management by Oklahoma (allowing a kick return, not kicking a FG twice, getting a FG blocked, not being able to line up right on a PAT, etc.)

2) Losing the 4th quarter convincingly.

Both of those symptoms are consistent with what is known as "bad coaching".   

That isnt to say Oklahoma lost every 4th quarter during the season, just the ones that mattered.  Lets look at how Oklahoma was doing in the games entering the 4th quarter:

Chattanooga: up 57 - 2, won 57 - 2

Cincinnati: up 42 - 20, won 52-26

Washington: up 48 - 7, won 55-14

TCU:  up 35 - 3, won 35 - 10

Baylor: up 42 - 17, won 49 - 17

Texas: Down 28 - 30, lost 35 - 45

Kansas: up 38 - 24, won 45 - 31

Kansas St.: up 55 - 35, won 58 - 35

Nebraska: up 62 - 21, won 62 -28

Texas A&M: up 66-21, won 66-28

Texas Tech: up 58 - 14, won 65-21

Oklahoma St. up 37-26, won 61 - 41

Mizzou: up 41-14, won 62 - 21

Florida: down 14-7, lost 24-14

So two things here.  One, they were losing going into the 4th quarter in both games they lost.  However, they were tied or winning then at one point in the 4th quarter.  In the Texas game they scored and were up 35-30, and against Florida they tied it right at the start of the 4th quarter.  The next closest margin they were was up 11 against Ok. State, and admittedly, they played well in the 4th quarter of that game.  That was the best they played in the 4th all year.  Look at the other games though, they were up 40 pts in some of them.  Now, they didnt play Bradford in the 4th quarter.  They ran the ball a majority of the time.  It turns into a damned if your do, damned if you dont thing.

If they leave the starters in, you will be criticized for running up the score and you risk injury.

If you take them out, they dont get experience of playing 4 quarters.

I think the latter instance caught up with them.  They did not have late game experience when they needed it.  I dont really know how SGB could have made this happen.  I guess sometimes people are clutch and sometimes theyre not.  It sounds dumb, like something Herbstreit would say, but the Sooners just were not tested enough last year, and when they were, they lost.

BAck to the game though.  In general I saw a few things:

I like McCoy better than Bradford.

I like Oklahoma's running game a lot better than Texas' (but they dont use it as much as they should)

I like Texas' WRs better than Oklahomas.

I like Texas' defense better.

Ultimately, what won the game for Texas is the same thing that won the game for Florida against Oklahoma, that is defense.  We heard how good of a job Oklahoma's offensive line did last year at keeping Bradford up right, and for the most part, they did.   But Loadholt was playing left tackle last year (who got taken by Minn in the draft), and he could not block Brian Orakpo to save his life.  On the other end, right tackle Trent Williams (who is projected to be a 1st rounder), couldnt block Sergio Kindle (who is also projected to be a 1st rounder).  Those ends caused loads of trouble for Bradford.  Now, overall, you open up the box score and look at the stats, and you say, it wasn't Braford's fault, he had a good game.  Both are kinda true, but when the offense needed to be big, they came up short.  

IT also doesnt help when you allow 45 points of your own.  The 45 points Oklahoma allowed was the most they allowed all season.  In the 4th quarter, Texas' offensive line had their way with the front seven of Oklahoma.  Watch Ogbonnayas run at the end of the game here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpT8bxpLwBo&feature=related  (fast forward to 2:18).

If you want to watch that whole clip, do so with the sound off.  BUt you can also see how much trouble they had blocking Orakpo and Kindle.  BUt look at the whole they open up on that Ogbonnayas run.  See the guard and center pull and knock those guys out of the picture?  Thats the difference between winning and losing.

A short summary.  SGB is not helping Oklahoma's cause.  He can continue to go 10-2, 11-1, but he needs a defense that can play before they win another title.  Look at the 2000 season in which they won the title.  Mike Stoops was the defensive coordinator, and look at the totals in the games.  Oklahoma averaged two touchdowns less scoring than they did in 2008.  BUT, they averaged giving up just 15 pts/game, which is 10 pts lower than they allowed last year.  They also played a harder schedule: #1 Nebraska, #2 Kansas State, #3 FSU, #8 Kansas State in Big12 Title game and #11 Texas.  The point is, if you shave off the numbers, they actually net -5.0 in pts right?  They gain 10 pts in defense, and lose 15 in offense.    But they didnt lose that year.  Its cause you dont lose when you play good defense.  It didnt matter that they only scored 13 pts in the title game, cause they only gave up 2.  They only scored 12 against Oklahoma State, but only allowed 7.  As long as you score more than the other team, you win.  And, a good defense will always beat a good offense.  So when you have a day off because your coach decides not to kick field goals or you shoot yourself in the foot, (Title Game vs Florida), it wont matter that you only score 14 points, because ideally, your defense will have allowed less than 14.  

In conclusion, the game between the two teams was very bad.  I cant believe that anyone who sat through it was able to say that those two teams were 2/3 best teams in the nation with a straight face.  It makes it less surprising that Oklahoma lost to Florida and that Texas barely beat Ohio State (neither were surprising to begin with).  It also makes it less surprising that the teams that these teams beat (Texas Tech, Oklahoma State) also got destroyed in their bowl games.  Its getting to the point where even though im trying by writing this blog, that I cant put into words how much I hate the Big12.   These two teams were horribly over rated, and they played a powder puff football game whose shittiness was enhanced by terrible officiating.   The only saving grace was that Musburger did the game.

Rushing the field celebrations

I hate to sound like an old man, but this post will probably make me sound like one.  After watching ESPNU all weekend, I saw the replay of a ton of good games: Georgia Alabama, LSU Auburn, Iowa Penn St., Penn St Ohio St, Wisconsin FSU (not a good game), and some others.  On top of those games, Texas Texas Tech, Texas Oklahoma, and the Outback Bowl (Iowa S. Carolina) are on tomorrow.  I got some Musburger buzzes, some Mike Patrick buzzkills, and a good refresher of the 2008 season.  I dont know how I lived without ESPNU before.  

On a separate note, there are some west coast channels here that seem to have 3 games on a loop;  USC UCLA 1993, where UCLA won 27-21,  USC UCLA 1996, where UCLA wins 48-41 in 2Ots, and last years semifinal from the Pac-10 Basketball Tournament; USC vs UCLA.  Ive had cable for 24 days now, and the semifinal from last years tournament has been on at least 15 days out of 24.  Im not saying that its been on 15 times, like, its on at 9 PM, and then repeated again at 11 PM, im saying it was on 15 different days, and most of those days it was on multiple times.  Apparently the channel doesnt show anything else involving those teams; e.g. 1996 Rose Bowl USC vs Northwestern, or 1998 Rose Bowl UCLA vs Wisconsin.  Just stuff that happens when they play each other.  Ill let you know if this changes and they expand their horizons, but for now, I can close my eyes and see J.J. Stokes, Jonathan Ogden, Cade McNown, and Taj Gibson.

But heres why Im writing the post.  I need to say something is gonna happen, so when it happens, I can say: "I told you so".  I could probably write an article alone on how dumb rushing the field/court at a game is 99% of the time.  If your program has any decent amount of respect, it should abstain from this practice.  Rushing the field just delegitimizes your program, and makes you look like beating a top 10 team is the highlight of your life.  If youre Indiana, and you beat Ohio State, you can rush the field.  You would expect something like that.  But anyway, the "rush" that caught my attention was when Iowa rushed against Penn State.  Whether or not they should have is another story and pretty much irrelevant and a waste of time.  But here is whats going to happen one day and allow me to say "i told you so":

Someone is going to get seriously injured.

Im sure someone gets hurt every time a fan base rushes the field.  Its impossible not to.  Someone falls down, hurts their wrist, twists their ankle, bruises their knee, and they get up, leave, get drunk, pass out, wake up and say "ow, i remember that" and its no big deal.  Im 99.9999% positive this happens to at least 1 person for every "rush".  Remember, people used to rush and try to tear down the goal post.  They found this to be really dangerous, and it was.  So, they dont allow that now.  They spent thousands of dollars to have goal posts that fold down quickly for the one time that the student section wants to rush the field.  But something worse than that is going to happen.  I foresee one of two things happening:

1)  The less likely scenario:    Someone gets trampled and seriously hurt.  This may have happened already too, and it just hasnt been covered.  You dont need to be a good athlete to sit in the student section.  On top of that, everyone knows that good football seats are higher up, and shittier ones are lower down.  Therefore, who is more likely to be sitting lower?  People who know less about the game.  Whos more likely to know less about the game?  Women, people who dont play the game, people who dont play sports, etc.  (Im not a sexist but its true.   I can confidently say if I asked 100 women where the best seats are for a football game that 95 would say "fieldside" or even worse "courtside".)   So now, we have this demographic of people sitting low, and "leading" the rush.  I say leading, because they may not be leading, they may not want to have any part of it, but they are in front.  You know how when people start pushing from 50 rows up, one person pushes on another, then on another, and its a domino effect.  Then, these people are let loose to run onto the field.  If youre fat and uncoordinated, you can easily get tripped up.  Then all you need is a mob that is drunk and so excited that they just beat Oklahoma and no-one even notices that theyre stepping on Suzie from the Delta Chi's face.  It could happen.

2) The more likely scenario, and im really, really, really really, surprised it hasn't happened yet:  Well it kinda happened once, but I dont remember the details of it.  That is, there is gonna be a huge brawl.  We saw a few years ago, someone from the losing team punched a fan who ran onto the field, then he quickly got out of there and got into the locker room.  

So imagine you are a 6'4" 265 lb linebacker from Joe Schmoe University.  You just lost to your bitter rival, John Doe U, on a last second field goal.  Whats worse, is that you were undefeated, and Joe Schmoe was one win from advancing to the national championship.  On top of it, youre a senior and not projected to go to the NFL.  You have just lost your dream.  Do you really need a 160 lb engineering student yelling in your face?

Thats a big exaggerated of course.  There are so many great competitors in college football.   You have to be one, otherwise you're not playing.  You dont have to be on an undefeated team, or be a senior, or be your last game or anything to get upset over losing.  On top of that, you only have to be human to get upset when some drunk pussy is yelling in your face.  Especially when the person is 100 lbs less than you, and you can flick him away like a bug.  

Sometimes, its not even like the players can avoid it.  How many times have you seen a rush at a football or basketball game, and they show the highlights, and the opposing/losing team is trying to fight through the crowd?  Theyre walking and getting through the mob trying to get to a clearer area, and you have all these drunk idiots screaming and elated over the fact that you just lost!  I say it again, how is there not an altercation every single time?  

Well now you're probably saying, "so stud linebacker clotheslines or sucker-punches John Q. Drunk Frat Boy ---- how does that equal a full out brawl"?

Remember the Ron Artest incident?

Get to the point where Artest went into the crowd, and punched the first fan in the face.  Were at this point already, because the crowd is brought into the field of play.  The players and the spectators are all mixed together.  Artest throws a punch.  Our linebacker throws a punch.

What happened in the Artest fight?   Every single Pistons fan tried to kick his ass/defend the fan who got punched.  If you were running down onto the field (you shouldnt be), and a player from the other team punched your roomate in the face?  What would you do?  Well, its not like youd be the only one around.  You and 10 other people would start shoving him, or trying to tackle him, or hitting him or whatever, you would swarm him.  You think that would go over well with his teammates?

Well it didnt go over well with the Pacers either.  Stephen Jackson went into the crowd too.  Now, I will argue that, he was protecting Artest.  Think about it, he wouldnt have gone into the crowd if Artest didnt.  If a guy hits Artest with a beer, and he gets up and brushes it off, does Jackson sprint into the stands to find the guy and kick his ass?  I would bet pretty heavily on no.  Why would he care if Artest doesnt care.  But you can bet your ass that Jackson isnt going to sit there and watch his teammate get swarmed by a bunch of drunk fatass fans from Detroit.  

The same human instinct plays out in our college football example.  The defensive end sees everyone pushing his linebacker.  No matter how big the linebacker is, he doesnt stand a chance against 10-15 people.  So the End has to go protect him.  Then these idiots starting punching and fighting at the End, and he has to fight back, and boom, you have a brawl.  Its not that difficult of a process.  It can start very quickly, and end very badly.

So weve seen the Artest fight.  In college football specifically, weve seen a player clothesline a fan.  Weve seen fights between teams (S. Carolina and Clemson, FIU and Miami).  Why would it be a big surprise if they combined?  Like Im saying, it wouldnt be, and it will end badly.  These are not the type of people you want to get into a fight with.

Who would everyone blame?  Well, the same person they blamed in the Artest fight, the athlete (not to say Artest wasnt guilty, but he wasnt 100% guilty).  Take it one step further, and say nearly the exact thing happened at a college football game.  Our drunk frat boy snuck in a flask of Jim Beam, and has been pouring it into a bunch of 20 oz Cokes hes been buying at the concession stands.  When his team wins, he doesnt want to waste the 2 shots of whiskey he has in his drink, and brings his drink with him.  He rushes the field, drink in hand.  He sees the star of the other team just 20 feet away.  He says, hey, theres no security here, theres 1000 people on the field to protect me/he wont even know its me, I may even get a laugh, watch this.  He throws his drink at the player.  Boom, smack in the face.  Now, you got a player who just lost a game and has been doused with Jim and Coke.  He sees the general direction the drink came from, but it doesnt matter to him.  He just punches some fucker in the face that happened to be laughing at his misfortune, (was the fan that Artest first hit the original thrower of the beer?  I dont think he was).  And then, we have a brawl on our hands again.

The situation is different because Artest went into the stands.  Youre obviously not supposed to do that.  As a professional athlete, I guess youre supposed to sit there and let fuckers hit you with beers.  If you want to try an experiment, go to the bar, throw a beer on someone across the bar, and see if he puts his head down and sulks or wants to fight you.  Yet, Artest, and all athletes, are expected to look the other way.  I know, Artest is a bad guy, but come on.  

But of course, in our football example, the fans are on the field.  The athletes had no choice but to interact with them.  I still say they blame the athlete.  Even though hes just a 21-22 year old, has no impulse control, just lost a game, just got someone in his face, he is expected to act like a distinguished gentleman with nothing wrong.  Yet, the thousands of people that just rushed the field can act like wild animals, and are even applauded for it.  ESPN loves that shit.  They eat it up.  They love seeing the field swarmed, they think it means they just had a good game on TV, they show the blimp cam perspective, sportscenter uses it in their intro-montage, on and on and on.  They love it.  The more drunk, yelling idiots that get on the field, the better.  If you think its easy to restrain yourself, imagine:

working for 22 years to get a promotion.  You go into your boss' office.  You have no reason to expect anything other than a promotion (youre the favorite), but in a huge upset, you lose (you dont get it).  Youre devastated.  All that hard work down the drain.  This was one of your last chances to get a promotion.  You say, okay, and walk out.  Then, in the 100 foot walk between your boss' office and your cubical, there is a mob of all your co-workers and their friends, laughing in your face.  Theyre jumping up and down, screaming at you, maybe brushing shoulders or some light shoving, and they are just totally elated that you failed.  Think you can hold back? 

Not even that, if I even need to make my example any more...football players just spent the last 3 hours of their lives kicking each others ass.  Thats what is in your blood.  Not to say you are some sort of savage that cant express yourself with words or restrain yourself at all, but your adrenaline and your endorphins are kicked in, you just ran around knocking the living shit and getting the living shit knocked out of you for three hours, and then youre supposed to act beyond cordial to people who hate you?  Come on, its ridiculous.  

Theres no good way to end this article.  Ill just say it again, this will happen.  The amount of "rushes" is increasing.  We all know this.  Any minor upset generates one nowadays.  The more they happen, the more likely something like this is to occur.  Some team's fans will rush, there will be a minor scuffle at first, it will turn out to be a full fledged brawl, it will take forever to get separated, students will have to go to the hospital, players will be suspended, and no one will ever be allowed to step on the field again.  

Why do I feel like Bill O' Reilly after writing a long, anti-violence, preaching article?

Number 17

17. Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas quietly had a pretty successful follow-up to their 2007 Orange Bowl Season.  They posted an 8-5 record, with all of their losses to bowl teams.  Last year was a hard year to compete in the Big12, and grab any sort of attention from the media.  Nevertheless, they beat rival Mizzou, and won their 2nd straight bowl game, a 42-21 beating of Minnesota in the Insight Bowl.  Kansas is my favorite to win the North this year, which would be a new accomplishment with Mizzou winning it the past few years.  That should be the ultimate goal for Kansas, and then they can worry about knocking off someone from the south.  Kansas can be a real good team this year, and return to a New Year's Day Bowl.

OFFENSE:

Keep underestimating QB Todd Reesing, and he keeps proving you wrong.  In the 2007 dream season, he threw for 3486 yards and a TD-INT ratio of 33-7.  People said, yeah thats nice, but hes a flash in the pan, its Kansas, hes only 5'10", etc.  So then, last year, he threw for 3888 yards, 32 TDs, and 13 INTs.  He deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Bradford and McCoy.  The reasons he isnt are probably because 1) Kansas isnt as good as Oklahoma or Texas, 2) He isnt going to be in the NFL probably, while Bradford and McCoy are, or 3) The media is a bunch of assholes.  If you think about it, you realize that Reesing being surrounded by the least amount of talent out of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas should be the biggest case to help an argument for him.  Plus, Kansas had trouble last year not because of Reesing or the offense, but rather the defense.  Whatever, its not a big deal, but Reesing is good.

His favorite target is WR Dezmon Briscoe, who is probably the best WR in the Big12 now that Crabtree is gone.  Last year Briscoe caught 92 balls for 1407 yards and 15 TDs.  Wow.  Hes only a junior this year, but probably will leave for the NFL after the season.  Or maybe, Reesing's favorite WR is Kerry Meier.  I mean, he did catch more passes than Briscoe.  More than 92 you ask?  Yup, Meier caught 97 balls for 1045 yards and 8 TDs.  I dare you to find another WR combo in college football that each caught 90 passes.  (Maclin and Coffman did it, but they played an extra game, and Coffman had 90 on the button).  But anyway, that is very impressive.  Even Jonathan Wilson is back, who caught 53 balls for 473 yards last year.  It shouldnt come as a surprise at this point that Kansas finished 8th in the nation in passing offense last year.  They averaged 33 pts/game. 

The part that could use some work, if they decide to, is the run game.  Jake Sharp was effective last year, rushing for 860 yards on only 186 carries, and 12 TDs.  This is a team that could run the ball better if they wanted.  They just choose to pass.  Its hard to argue with the results that it has produced, but Reesing did throw 13 picks last year.  Running it a little more wouldnt hurt.  What will hurt is the new, inexperienced offensive line.  They only return 2 starters, both are sophomores.  They are then projecting a junior and 2 freshmen to fill in the rest of the offensive line.  If thats true, they better figure out how to play and fast.  Nothing will work, running or throwing, if the offensive line cant block.  

DEFENSE:

In their losses last year, they scored 34, 31, 21, 35, and 7 points.  So it wasn't the offense's fault.  In those same games, they allowed: 37, 45, 63, 45, and 35 points.  That is just bad.  What good is it to average 33 pts/game if you average giving up 28/game?  Their pass defense ranked 114th in the nation last year.  Thats part because the Big12 was a pass happy league, and part because Kansas was pathetic against the pass last year.  (The best pass defense by the numbers in the Big12 last year was Colorado.  They finished 72nd in the nation, and most other teams in the Big12 finished in the 100s.)  Its hard to believe that the secondary could perform so poorly with a player like S Darrell Stuckey.  He is projected everywhere to be a first day NFL draft selection.  The defense does return 8 starters, with 3/4 in the secondary, but is that necessarily a good thing?  

Kansas can score enough to play with anyone.  But again, what good is it if they allow 50+?  I hate the Big12 so much because of this.  Everyone seems to have this mentality: "well just outscore them".  Well, yeah, I know thats the point of sports, to score more than the other team, but it turns into a game of Madden on Rookie between two drunk people at 3 AM.  Will someone who plays defense please step up?  Ill get into this more when its their turn, but e.g. Oklahoma had the 99th best pass defense, and the 58th best scoring defense.  Yet they were in the title and everyone was kissing their ass and no one said, wait a minute they cant stop anyone.  Then Florida put together a bunch of 7 minute drives and Oklahoma lost again.  

Final Predictions:

9/5  Northern Colorado           --- Win

9/12 @ UTEP                            --- Win

9/19 Duke                               --- Win

9/26  S. Mississippi               --- Win

10/10 Iowa St.                         --- Win

10/17 @ Colorado                   --- Win

10/24 Oklahoma                      --- Loss

10/31 @ Texas Tech                 --- Win

11/7 @ Kansas State                 --- Win

11/14 Nebraska                          --- Win

11/21 @ Texas                           --- Loss

11/28  Mizzou (in K.C.)             --- Win

First off, please notice how bad the non-conference schedule is.  Ive been hearing good things about S. Mississippi this year, but still.  Then, they should win their first two Big12 games.  Nothing like a 6-0 start to build confidence.  Obviously, the tough stretch then comes.  Oklahoma will obviously be tough.  Then @TT is a swing game, and @ Kansas St could be a trap game.  Then, Nebraska should be the main threat to Kansas to win the Big12 North, and then they have to go to Texas and finish against Mizzou.  So, after all that, it isnt the easiest schedule, but it is doable.  They should be favored in 9/12 games (they may be underdogs @TT depending how the Red Raiders play this year).  

10-2    (6-2)

Conference Odds Are Up

At betonusa.com, they have odds to win the national championship, odds to win each conference, and odds to win the heisman.  Check them out for yourself; I am not going to regurgitate them all to you now.   I will however go conference by conference if I think there is a good pick for the money.

In general, most of these preseason picks are a waste.  First, they tie up your money for the next 4 months.  Second, anyone who is halfway decent isnt getting a good price.  Florida is -300 to win the SEC for example.  If you liked Florida, why wouldnt you just bet on them every game, and if anything ever went wrong, you could, not bet on them that week?  Theyre dumb, but lets look at some ok values.

ACC:  

Everyone is low on this.  7 teams have odds of less than 10-1 to win the ACC.  This is to be expected as the conference is wide open.  Even my "cinderella" of the year, NC State, is only getting 8-1.  VT is the favorite at +250.  I wouldnt bet on any of them.

Big12:

As expected, Texas and Oklahoma are +150, the leaders.   One bet I do like is Mizzou at 20-1.  I know they will be down this year, and Kansas and Nebraska will probably end up being better.  But, Mizzou winning the Big12 North is not that far fetched of an idea.  If they do, you can hedge them in the Dr. Pepper Big12 Title Game against whoever they play for half the price.  Say you put $50 on Mizzou at 20-1.  Youre betting that theyre better than Nebraska and Kansas, not necessarily better than Oklahoma and Texas.  

Big East:

Another conference with a bunch of low odds.  6/8 teams are less than 10-1.  Pitt, S. Florida, and WV are all the favorites at +250.  I guess Rutgers at +400 would be my pick, but again, why bet on Rutgers at only 4-1?

Big10:

Youre not getting that good of odds in this conference either.  Ohio St. is +150, and Penn St. is +250.  Remember how I wrote an article how MSU could win it?  Well theyre only +500.  Northwestern at +2000 could be a good value.  I would definitely take NW over Michigan, and Michigan is only getting +1000.  

Pac10

USC is overwhelming favorite at -300.  Oregon and Cal are +300.  Other than that there is no real value.  Ore State, who was 1 game away from winning it all last year, is +800, and thats ehhhh, and okay pick.  Stanford at 30-1 would be the pick.  

SEC:

Florida is -300 here.  LSU, Miss, Bama are all +500.  Cant Imagine any other team winning the SEC.  UGA of course, but theyre only +600.  After that, the prices skyrocket.  Arkansas at +4000 might not be the worst pick ever.

For Heisman, we all know that theyve already decided the 3 finalists.  Theyre gonna be Tebow, McCoy and Bradford barring an injury or someone really coming out of nowhere.  Theyre the favorites: Tebow is +200, Bradford +250, McCoy +300.  Terrelle Pryor is next biggest favorite at +800, and I cant imagine how he could win it.  I like the Darryl Clark pick for +1800.  Reesing at +2000 isnt bad either.

So in conclusion, the only things i would bet on off this list, with a gun forced on me would be:

Mizzou 20-1

NW 20-1

Stanford 30-1

Arkansas 40-1

Clark 18-1

Reesing 20-1

I would most likely lose all of them, but at those prices, you only need to win one to turn a profit.

Number 18

18.  North Carolina Tar Heels

This is a pick that should come as no surprise if you watched the Tar Heels last year.  If it were three years ago, and Butch Davis just inherited the team, and you somehow had access to this website 3 years ago, the pick would come as no surprise either.  The Tar Heels have steadily improved in Davis' two years, and theyre looking to make year three the big break out year.  Last year really could have been the year, though.  Ultimately, their September loss to Virginia Tech is what cost them the divison; they lost 20-17 after leading 17-3 in the 2nd half.  They lost a total of 5 games, 4 by a combined 9 points, and then the 5th game to N.C. State was by 31.  In those five losses, they scored a COMBINED 3 points in the 4th quarter.   Not coincidentally, they led in the 4th quarter in 4/5 losses, with the exception being the N.C. State game.  The focus this year has to be on finishing games off.

OFFENSE:

QB T.J Yates missed half of the season due to injury, but was effective when he was in there.  In six games, he threw for 1168 yards, 11 TDs, and 4 INTs.  What hurts the offense is that they lose nearly all of their star WRs.  Hakeem Nicks is now on the Giants, Brandon Tate on the Patriots, and Brooks Foster is on the Rams.  Losing 3 WRs to the NFL is never a good thing.  Its hard to imagine that any receivers that step in will be able to duplicate the quality that the trio above produced.  

But, the running game looks very strong.  Shaun Draughn was only a Sophomore last year when he rushed for 866 yards.  Factor in that the Tar Heels were throwing the ball mostly, add another year of experience, and a good offensive line (well talk about in a second), and it could point to a big year for Draughn.  He could be a nice 1-2 punch with RB Greg Little (who is the teams leading returnee for receiving yards), and on top of that, they have a goal line specialist with 6'2" 245 lb. Ryan Houston.  Houston tallied 8 touchdowns on 77 carries last year.  The team can produce a strong threat on the ground this year.    The offensive line returns 4 starters, and is made up of 3 seniors and 2 juniors - a very experienced line.

DEFENSE:

The strength of the team will no doubt be the defense.  While it didnt produce terrific numbers last year, there are loads of talent on this side of the ball.  Despite giving up an above-average amount of yardage, the Tar Heels did hold their opponents to a respectable 21 pts/game.  They now return 9 starters.  The two stars are LB Quan Sturdivant and CB Kendric Burney.  Both have the potential to be all-americans.  The defensive line was probably the worst part of the defense last year, but they return all four starters and their backups.  Its a deep line, and should produce better results this year.  Sr. DE E.J. Wilson should lead the way.  The Tar Heels forced an impressive 29 turnovers last year.  Their most impressive effort of the year came when they limited Georgia Tech to 7 points. 

I feel that the talent on defense was there last year, but they didnt play to their 100% potential, especially against N.C. State.  If they improve like they should with 9 starters back, they can be special.  The offense is a concern.  The Tar Heels have not been known as a running team since Davis took over, but it appears that they are going to have to start this year as one.  The running game should be okay, but until a receiving threat emerges, opposing defenses will have no problem loading up the line of scrimmage to stop any RB that the Tar Heels throw at them. 

 An experienced offensive line can only help so much.  Without a doubt, the question of where the receiving is going to come from is the concern.  If 2-3 players step up and create a balance on offense, the Tar Heels can win the ACC.  Expect a bunch of low scoring, run the ball slug fests between the Tar Heels and their opponents.  Uh-oh, another ACC schedule to pick:

Final Results:

9/5 :  The Citadel                 --- Win

9/12: @ Connecticut              --- Win

9/19: E. Carolina                  --- Win 

9/26: @ Ga. Tech                 --- Loss

10/3:  Virginia                     --- Win

10/10: Georgia Southern     --- Win

10/22: Florida State              --- Win

10/29: @ Va. Tech                  --- Loss

11/7:  Duke                              ---- Win

11/14: Miami                          ---- Win

11/21: @ Boston College        ---- Win

11/28:  @ N.C. State                ---- Win

10-2  (6-2)