Michigan State has a legitimate shot to win the Big10 this year. Before you ask me what Ive been smoking, pay attention. The team lost 4 games last year, all to bowl teams; @ Cal, @ Ohio State, @ Penn State, and vs UGA in the Citrus Bowl. Now, cynics would say that they didnt beat anyone good; that Notre Dame, Iowa, and Northwestern were the best teams that they beat. I say however, that if your schedule wasnt working for you, fix it! They drop Cal and do not play as tough as a non-conference opponent this year (they obv play ND again), they do not play Ohio State, and this year, Penn State is at home. Beyond that though, the team has some very talented people on it, and the Big10 schedule sets up nicely that they could be in competition for the title all the way into November.
Offense:
Obviously the big loss is RB Javon Ringer. He rushed for 1637 yards last year, and the lead returning rusher, RB Andre Anderson rushed for 97. The replacement of Ringer is priority #1. They also lose QB Brian Hoyer, but this might mean improvement for MSU. Hoyer threw for 2404 yards, and had a dismal 9-9 TD-INT rate. In comes sophomore QB Kirk Cousins. He played in 4 games last year; and posted the following numbers:
32-43, 310 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Now, theres two ways of looking at the competition he faced. On the plus side, the 4 games he played against were versus E. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and Georgia. On the negative side, all of those games were blowouts except for Georgia. He played the most against Ohio State; in fact, he played the entire 2nd half. He entered at halftime when the Spartans were down 28-0, and led them down the field for a touchdown the first drive of the 2nd half. He finished with 161 yards against the Buckeyes in 1 half.
He only played the final 2 drives, or final 2:36 against Penn State. In that short time he went 7-9 for 81 yards and a touchdown. Again, was it a case of him playing good, or a case of Penn State slacking off because they were 2 minutes away from the Rose Bowl?
The most telling case might be when he played against UGA. He came into the game in the 2nd quarter in a 3-3 tie. He came in and played one drive. He went 4/5 for 36 yards. Then, inexplicably, coach Mark D'Antonio decided to put Hoyer back in. Simply put, the jury is still out on Cousins, but he has shown some potential, even though they were in brief appearances.
The receiving corps is going to be the strength of the offense this year, and will help the evolution of Cousins. They return all four of their top receivers, and their top TE. Look how the stats broke down;
Jr. Mark Dell caught 36 balls for 679 yards and 3 TDs
Sr. Blair White caught 43 balls for 659 yards and 1 TD
So. B.J. Cunningham caught 41 balls for 528 yards and 0 TDs
Jr. Charlie Gantt (TE) caught 19 balls for 302 yards and 4 TDs
So. Keshawn Martin caught 11 balls for 132 yards and 0 TDs
So the touchdown totals may be a little low, but remember that anytime they got close to the goal line, it was Ringer time (he scored 22 TDs). The point is is that MSU has the best receiving corps in the Big10, and the Spartans will be more of a passing team this year. That is, until someone steps into the RB role. If and when someone does step into the RB role, the offense will be very, very balanced. If Cousins can keep up the efficiency that he exhibited in short glimpses last year, combine with the fact that he now has a year of experience working with all those receivers, then MSU can put up big numbers through the air. The line also returns 3 starters.
Defense:
Even with my optimism for the offense, the defense will be the strength of the team this year. The defense returns eight starters. They were good in spots last year, including the Citrus Bowl, but struggled against other marquee teams such as Cal and Penn State. LB Greg Jones could reach the level of All-American this year. Last year he tallied 127 tackles, and he was only a sophomore. They also return LB Eric Gordon and Adam Decker. They also return 3/4 in their secondary. The main losses come on the line with the loss of DT Justin Kershaw and DE Brandon Long.
The Spartans were just average in all statistics last year, but they posted 9 wins. Again, pessimists will point out that they lost to nearly every quality team they played. However, their schedule improves, their defense should improve, and their passing game should improve. The key is to find a suitable replacement for Ringer. No one is going to match the 1600+ yards he provided, but someone needs to help keep the defense off balance. Its also a team that should improve as the season goes on, so watch out for MSU in November.
Final Schedule:
9/5 Montana State ---- Win
9/12 C. Michigan ---- Win
9/19 @ Notre Dame ---- Win
9/26 @ Wisconsin ---- Win
10/3 Michigan ---- Win
10/10 @ Illinois ---- Win
10/17 Northwestern --- Win
10/24 Iowa ---- Win
10/31 @ Minnesota ---- Win
11/7 W. Michigan ---- Win
11/14 @ Purdue --- Win
11/21 Penn State ---- Loss
Obviously it will be very difficult for the Spartans to go 11-1, but it is not impossible. It is not a hard schedule. The key to the schedule will be 9/19 - 10/10. All games are swing games: @ ND, @ Wisc, Michigan (rivalry), @ Illinois. They can go anywhere from 0-4 to 4-0 in those games, but I think will be favored in all 4 of them, despite none of them being easy (I know I already said ND was favored over MSU in vegas). I like how they get NW and Iowa at home. That should definitely put them ahead of the middle pack of the Big10, and guarantee a 3rd place or better finish:
11-1 (7-1)
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