Early Lines

Id like to take time out of the conference previews to share some early lines that I saw at the Golden Nugget recently.  Of course these lines are subject to change, and many have already.  These are from memory, so I can only tell you as many as I can remember.  Also, Ill put what it opened at, and what it was on the board.  Ill also share some thoughts about the spreads.  

Alabama -4 Va Tech  Week 1 in Atlanta    (seems about right/almost a trap right away.  I dont know who would take Va. Tech in this spot, and it seems like an early season trap, much like the Clemson vs Alabama game last year Week 1.)

Oregon +4 @ Boise State Week 1.  Gonna preview this game more in depth later, this could be the best game week 1, and its on late Thursday Night.  

Notre Dame -17 v. Nevada.   Woulda thought itd be lower than this just because Nevada can move the ball and score.  That being said their defense is pathetic, and it probably will be a high scoring game.  Well analyze all the ND spreads at the end...it follows that they have a huge descrepancy home and away.

Illinois -5 v. Mizzou in STL.  This started at Ill -2.5 and jumped.  I thought that this was a good opportunity for Illinois.  THis is their best chance to beat Mizzou in a long time.  Out of all the teams on their schedule, Mizzou is the team Id most like to face early in the season.  Illinois has a lot of holes too, mainly on their defense, and it could be an early coming out party for Mizzou QB Blaine Gabbert.  I dont know why Illinois jumped here in the spread, I would have figured Illinois -3 was about right.

Oklahoma State -3 v. UGA.  This could be another trap.  A lot of people are drinking the OK St. Kool-Aid this year, and everyone knows that UGA has lost Moreno and Stafford, so they have no chance of winning week 1 in Stillwater right?  Well, the last thing I would expect to happen is UGA to lay down and not come out fired up.  As I said with Mizzou though, UGA is a team you would probably rather face early in the year.  I see UGA not falling far at all this year, and Ive already written how I think the Big12 is over rated, and, I just think UGA could come out and shock the world here week1.

Thats all I really remember from week1, lets go through some other games....these are harder of course cause they will be based on injuries for one, but also how teams perform in the earlier weeks.  I dont feel like looking up every week when the teams play, so a lot of these could be out of order.  IN fact, I am just going to do it by team, and we can then compare the teams they play, youll see what Im talking about:

First, Notre Dame.

Notre Dame -3.5 @ Michigan

Notre Dame -3 v. Mich. State

Notre Dame -7 v. Boston College

Notre Dame +10 v. USC

Notre Dame +1 @ Pitt

What really jumps out here is that the oddsmakers expect ND to return to prominence this year.  Second, it shows how big home field is for them.... how they could be favored over MSU and underdogs against Pitt.  I cant really confidently pick any of those games.  I really wish they had a line for their game against Stanford. I also dont expect the schedule to be quite as easy as everyone expects it to be.  

Florida is a team that is overvalued by about a touchdown every game theyre in.

Florida -17 v. UGA in Jacksonville 

Florida -10 @ LSU

Florida -20 v. Florida State

All those spreads are ridiculous, and at the same time, I wouldnt be surprised if they covered them all....the Gators are pretty much that good.

USC seems to be another overvalued team:

USC -8.5 @ Oregon

USC -10.5 @ Cal

USC -3.5 @ Ohio State   (Started at a huge -7).

So, theyre that big of a favorite in all of those road games?  I dont buy it.  Imagine a scenario where USC beats Ohio State, beats Cal, beats ND, and is undefeated , 7-0, going into the Oregon game.  ALso, imagine now Oregon loses their first 2 games against Boise State and Utah, and even stumbles again against UCLA or something.  This would mean, the spread would be as high as it could be for the USC v. Oregon game, right?  Would it still be 8.5?  I highly doubt it.  I would still imagine that USC would be about -4 at the tops, unless it was just kicking every teams ass by 21 points every game.  Even then,  its not gonna be anymore than -10 really....so why would you take -8.5?  It cant be much higher than that, and in reality, its gonna be much lower, and you could even see Oregon favored.

Texas and Oklahoma are big favorites against everybody, Ok. State included, I dont remember the exact numbers, but I know this:

Texas -3 v. Oklahoma in Dallas.  Sounds about right.  When I get into my top25, Ill tell you why Texas is not only better than Oklahoma, but probably a lot better.

Ole Miss -4 v. Alabama

Ole Miss -4 v. LSU

So now were in a situation where LSU and Alabama are around the 6th highest favorites to win the whole title.  Yet, they are underdogs against Ole Miss, (and LSU is underdogs vs FLorida).  This, of course is all because both games are in Oxford.  Looking at Ole Miss' schedule: the 3 teams they play from the SEC East are Vandy, S. Carolina, and Tenn.  Anotherwords, probably the 3 worst teams.  Anotherwords, NO FLORIDA OR UGA.  On top of that, they get Bama and LSU at home.  Now throw in the fact that they play Memphis, SE. Louisiana, UAB and Northern Arizona as non-conference teams, and itll be hard to fathom them not making a BCS bowl.   What I'm saying is, if theyre favored over Bama and LSU, who wont they be favored over?  The answer is, no one.  Does that mean anything? No.  Does that make them any better or worse? No.  The point is, is that despite playing in the SEC, Ole Miss plays a pretty favorable schedule, and could/should be in the BCS.

Penn State -3 v. Ohio State.   

I dont see anything wrong with this.  Penn State beat em last year.  I expect them to beat em again.   Theres really nothing much more to it.

I think thats about it.  I cant remember anymore, and I'm tired.  Hopefully, Pinnacle will have future games on their site soon, and we can go over the whole list.  BUt until then, those are the big games we know.