This has the potential to be a very exciting year in South Bend for several reasons. For one, the team can be good. Secondly, the team should put up great offensive numbers. Thirdly, the honeymoon is over with Charlie Weis, and if the Irish are not good, he will be fired. I dont see the last thing happening as much as I see the first two things happening.
Lets first address the schedule. Many people will say that it is easy and that the Irish should have no trouble winning 9 games, and many project them as winning as many as 11 games. Well, Id like to be the first to say that the schedule will be harder than most people think. Notre Dame is always under the most scrutiny as a team, and since they do not play in a conference and have guaranteed match-ups, their schedule is analyzed more than others. At first glance, the schedule could appear easy, but as we will see, it really isnt. First off you have Nevada, who can run the ball and put points on the board. They are better than the San Diego State team that ND played in the first week last year. If Notre Dame plays the way that they played last year against SDSU, they will lose to Nevada, period.
As noted on a previous post, ND starts the season as favorites in all of their games except against USC and Pitt. This doesn't mean that the other games will be easy by any means. It is never easy to travel to Michigan Stadium (although Appalachian State and Toledo are starting to refute that theory), and the annual game against Michigan State is always competitive. Throw in a rivalry game against Boston College, a visit to Stanford (who Ive already highlighted as dangerous), and the visit from USC, and Notre Dame won't go 11-1.
But that doesn't mean that the Irish won't be better. They have to be. Cynics will say that they only beat 2 bowl teams last year (Navy and Hawaii in the bowl), while optimists will say that they were close in many of their losses (5 @ UNC, 3 to Pitt in 4OTs, and 1 to Syracuse [although you really can't count a loss to Syracuse as any sort of a moral, spiritual, or physical victory]). Lets look at the team they have this year, and see how they'll fare:
Offense:
This is the year that Irish fans have been waiting for since Brady Quinn left. Former #1 prospect Jimmy Clausen is a Junior, and has shown signs of growth. Maybe those signs are concurrent with the emergence of WRs Golden Tate and Malcolm Floyd, but regardless, Clausen should put up big numbers this year. He finished last year with 3100 yards throwing, and a 25-17 TD-INT ratio. It would be nice if he could cut down on the interceptions.
The weakness of the offense is their lack of running game. This shortcoming is one that I just simply do not understand. This year, they return all five linemen, headed by All-American Sam Young. They should keep Clausen upright, and should be able to open holes for RB Armando Allen. However, last year, the Irish finished 100th in the nation in rushing offense. How is this possible? My initial reaction was that they needed to run the ball more. Now I know that Floyd and Tate are weapons that are too valuable to be wasted by running the ball, but you won't be wasting them. On further investigation, I found that the running game was just plain bad in 2008. They finished around 70th in rushing attempts, but 100th in rushing yards........436 attempts for 1426 yards, a terrible 3.3 yds/carry. So maybe running the ball more isnt the answer. There may be something more at stake here though. Lets assume that ND wants to reach the top as far as offense goes, and wants to do it throwing the ball. Lets look at last years top 5 passing offenses:
1. Texas Tech 5371 pass yds, 317 rush attempts for 1532 yards
2. Houston 5221 pass yds, 406 rush attempts for 2095 yards
3. Oklahoma 4891 pass yds, 589 rush attempts for 2779 yards
4. Mizzou 4621 pass yds, 417 rush attempts for 2153 yards
5. Rice 4254 pass yds, 449 rush attempts for 1868 yards.
Now lets look at Notre Dame:
Notre Dame 3172 pass yds, 436 rush attempts for 1426 yards. (a 3.3 yd/carry rate).
So all of those teams did 2 things better than ND: 1) they threw for more yards, and 2) they ran for more yards. How is this possible? Especially in the case of Texas Tech, who ran the ball 100 less times, yet finished with more rush yards. How does this happen? Also, by no means was ND breaking any records on pass offense last year, (they finished 34th in the nation in pass offense). How many attempts did Clausen have again? 447. How many attempts did those other teams have?
1. Texas Tech: 662 Attempts
2. Houston: 610
3. Oklahoma : 517
4. Mizzou : 565
5. Rice : 516.
So ND combined for 883 plays from scrimmage. TT: 989. Houston: 1016. Oklahoma: 1106. Mizzou 982. Rice: 965. NOTE: Oklahoma and Mizzou played one more game than ND and the other teams. This will ultimately be the answer to why they do not produce as many yards and points, but well come back to this. does this mean that their time of possession suffered as a result?
Well, no, the Irish finished 25th in the nation in ToP (which is surprising since their rush attack was so bad). But this statistic is misleading and irrelevant. All 5 of the top passing offenses finished behind ND in ToP, and Mizzou finished 3rd to last.
Well, enough of what it isn't. I have 2 reasons of why I think it is......and that is turnovers and play calling. First off, Clausen finished 5th in the nation in Interceptions:
1. Bo Levi Mitchell SMU - 24 TDs 23 INTs
2. Kevin Craft UCLA - 7 TDs 20 INTs
3. David Johnson Tulsa - 46 TDs 18 INTs
3. Chase Daniel Mizzou - 39 TDs 18 INTs
5. Nathan Edwards Idaho - 20 TDs 17 INTs
5. Jimmy Clausen ND - 25 TDs, 17 INTs.
I included the touchdowns for a reason. All of these QBs fell into one of two categories. 1) their team sucked (SMU, UCLA, Idaho), or 2) they were actually good and had a good TD-INT ratio, but they just happened to throw the ball a lot (Johnson, Daniel). So yes, Daniel and Johnson had more INTS, but their ratios were 2.166 and 2.55 respectively, while Clausen's was 1.47. That is unacceptable. (Its not because ND ran the ball in on the ground more either; ND had 11 rush TDs, Mizzou had 28, and Tulsa had 40.......yea, almost 4 times as many as ND.)
Notre Dame also lost 11 fumbles, meaning they turned the ball over 28 times. That was good for 93rd in the nation. Oklahoma, by comparison, turned the ball over 11 times. Tulsa did turn the ball over 30 times, more than ND, but they also scored 661 points, more than double what ND scored. How could that be? Maybe the turnovers isnt the whole story......
Thats where play calling comes in. I dont like it for ND. I would still try to run the ball more despite the low yd/carry. IN addition, does it not seem that every play for ND is a bomb? What happened to the intermediate, zone occupying pass game? Jimmy Clausen attempted 447 passes for 3172 yards last year, that is a 7.14 yd/attempt ratio. Lets again look at the top 5 passing offenses' quarterbacks, since they played every game for their teams:
1. Graham Harrell: 662 Attempts for 5371 yards, a 8.11 ratio
2. Case Keenum: 610 Attempts for 5221 yards, a 8.56 ratio
3. Oklahoma: 517 Attempts for 4891 yards, a 9.46 ratio
4. Mizzou : 565 Attempts for 4625 yards, a 8.19 ratio
5. Rice: 516 Attempts for 4254 yards, a 8.24 ratio
This may seem stupid maybe, but realize that only 20 teams had a ratio of 8.00+. It also takes away the idea that a pass could be completed say 5 yards deep, then the wide receiver breaks 5 tackles and runs it for 75 yards. Lets say you threw the ball 3 times that drive and that play occurred on the third attempt. Yds/attempt would say that you averaged 25 yds/attempt, while yds/completion would say you averaged 75. Yds/attempt is a better barometer of the quarterback's efficiency. Now, lets say you throw the ball 30 times a game. Mizzou averaged 1.00 yd/attempt better than ND last year. Thats 30 yards a game. Then over 12 games, thats 360 yards. Then, add in the fact that all those teams ran the ball better than ND last year, and you see why ND is still a little bit away from being a top offense. I think this stems from play calling. Clausens completion % was 60%, while all of the top 5 offenses were 65%+, and here may be the worst thing of all:
Notre Dame finished 111th in the nation in Red Zone offense. They reached the red zone 44 times, scored a touchdown 23 times, kicked a FG 8 times, and had a scoring % of 70%. As you could probably guess, the top offenses all finished higher than that, and those top offenses are just based on yards, not scoring. Only one team that either tied with ND or below them in Red Zone offense made a bowl; West Virginia also scored 70% of the time. Again, this boils down to play calling. They need to punch the ball into the endzone.
And like I said, its the play calling that leads ND to have hundreds of plays less than those other offenses. Turnovers mean less plays. Not getting first downs means less plays. Not having as high of a yard/attempt rate means less plays. Less plays means less yards and less points. Its a snowball effect. Three and outs are not good. The more plays you have on offense, the more yards and more points you are going to accumulate. ND, although they had an above average time of possession, needs to get more plays out of their possessions by running the ball and utilizing an effective (not a bombing) passing game. This will help out all of their problems.
So in summary after all that bs.....NDs offense can be good this year. To improve and reach an elite level, they need to 1) run the ball more effectively, 2) turn the ball over less, 3) be smarter with play calling and finish in the red zone........none of those ideas are revolutionary.
Defense:
The defense played well at times last year. Unfortunately they lost LB Maurice Crum. The Irish's defense was their achilles heel the years that they were successful (2005-2006). Those 2 years combined, the Irish lost 6 games (Mich State, Michigan, USC twice, and Ohio State and LSU in bowls.) IN those 6 games, the Irish gave up a combined 244 points (40.66 pts/game). That is terrible. Granted, all those teams were good teams, but the Irish were competing for a national championship just as much as those teams were. The defense played really bad and was the reason they never fulfilled their title dreams. Two years ago, it was bad again, but last year, there were serious signs of improvement. It was not the defense's fault that they lost to Boston College or to Michigan State, and they played pretty well against Hawaii. They return 7 starters on the defense, and 3 in the secondary. Also remember that it was the first year of the Jon Tenuta regime.
Now I know it seems like I bashed ND for the last 2000 words or whatever, but I obviously think they are capable of big things this year if I have them ranked 23rd in the nation. Many times last year, it just seems that they could not get the team on the same page and play a complete game. For instance, the defense played well @ Boston College, but Clausen threw 4 INTs, the offense played well against Pitt, but the defense gave up 21 2nd half points, and then 12 pts in 4 OTs. They obviously need to get on the same page if they want to return to a good bowl. The defense can be better than it has been in the past, and the offense could be explosive. However, as mentioned before, the offense needs to figure out how to run the ball, and finish off drives. Weis' job is on the line this year..........
Final Predictions:
9/5 Nevada ---- Win
9/12 @ Michigan --- Win
9/19 Michigan St. -- Loss
9/26 @ Purdue --- Win
10/3 Washington --- Win
10/17 USC --- Loss
10/24 B. College --- Win
10/31 Washington St (in Houston) -- Win
11/07 Navy --- Win
11/14 @ Pitt --- Win
11/21 Connecticut --- Win
11/28 @ Stanford --- Win
10-2
See, even after all that derogatory talk, I still took em to win 10 games. Just like with Florida State, a lot of these games are swing games, and depends when they catch em on their schedule. BC could be hot at the point they play ND. Same with Pitt. As Vegas indicated, they have ND favored in all but 2 games, and I have them losing 2 games (although vegas has them favored over MSU and thats the other loss I have ND enduring in addition to USC.) I love making preseason predictions cause Im gonna change them every week. The only week I have to answer for is Week 1......and even then, I may change my mind before the season starts. But not for ND, im pretty confident they will beat Nevada; the Wolfpack's pass defense finished dead last last year.
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