TCU is my pick to win the Mountain West this year, and they could end up being the best non-BCS team in the nation - slight edge to Boise State to start the year). TCU was a few minutes away from beating Utah last year, and if they didnt schedule Oklahoma, they would have been undefeated and in the Sugar Bowl. They lose a lot of starters on both sides of the ball, but they have certain pieces back that will help the influx of new talent. If they can gel quickly, they can be a threat to play in January.
Offense:
TCU loses two big pieces: RB Aaron Brown and their Offensive Coordinator, Mike Schultz - to Illinois. Aaron Brown was probably their best RB, but TCU did do a good job of rotating their backs enough that they still have experience heading into this season. The #1 back should be Joseph Turner, who rushed for 577 yards and 11 TDs last year. Even QB Andy Dalton chipped in, rushing for 432 yards and 8 TDs. Speaking of Dalton, he obviously returns. He threw for 2242 yards and a 11-5 TD-INT ratio. Not the greatest numbers, but TCU is a running team. Their run to pass ratio last year was 1.73-1.
What makes the TCU offense dangerous is that many players are dual threats. Normally when we hear this, we think of a Running Back that can catch the ball out of the backfield (Marshall Faulk, LaDainian Tomlinson), but at TCU, its the opposite. They use their receivers to motion to the backfield, and run the ball with them, (the style is a lot like Illinois', but they run the ball with more receivers than just one, as Illinois does with just Benn). For example, WR Ryan Christian returns this year. He caught 30 balls for 321 yards, and ran the ball 91 times for 386 yards. Jeremy Kerley caught 11 balls for 95 yards, and ran the ball 25 times for 143 yards. This poses a lot of problems for defenses. Then, TCU has a good "true" WR in Jimmy Young. He cause 59 balls for 988 yards last year. Just think of the idea of TCU's offense. Its an offense that has a good wide receiver, a stable of running backs, a QB who is a threat to run, and WRs who can motion to the backfield and run the ball as well. Its dangerous. Despite the fact that they finished 72nd in the nation in pass offense last year, they averaged 33 pts/game (21st in nation), and 24th in yds/game. They had the 12th best running game in the nation. I would imagine that the new coordinators are not going to change things up that much. The offensive line only returns 2 starters, but OT Marshall Newhouse is a great player.
Defense:
But we all know that TCU means defense. Last year, they had the #2 scoring defense, allowing only 11.3 pts/game, and the #1 total defense, allowing 217 yards a game. According to AthlonSports, the Horned Frogs have two unbelievable statistics. 1) they led the nation in total defense 3/9 years since Patterson took over, and 2) they are 52-1 in games where they let up less than 17 points. The one loss was last year, to Utah, 13-10. DE Jerry Hughes is the star of the defense. He will be a first round selection on draft day. He led the nation last year in sacks, tallying 15. Compare that to 1st round selections this year - Everette Brown 13.5, Brian Orakpo 11.5, and Aaron Maybin 12, and you can see why scouts are so high on Hughes. None of the other front six members return (they run a 4-2-5), something that can be a problem. However, its time that you put faith in Patterson and his ability to reload on defense every year. They return 3/5 starters in the secondary, but without an effective pass rush, they wont be as effective as they were last year (11th best pass defense in the nation). They cant count on Hughes alone to get pressure on the QB. Rafael Priest and Nick Sanders are the stars of the secondary.
Its hard to imagine that the defense may be the weakness of a TCU team, but until the front 6 finds some replacements, they are. It may not take long. They may come out with just as much talent and speed as they had last year, take down Virginia the first week, and have everyone say, "oh shit, TCU is gonna be dangerous again this year". More likely than not, their rush defense will be good, its just gonna be hard to duplicate their #1 in the nation rush defense they had last year. Until then, they have a few things working in their favor. 1) they have a capable offense that likes to rush the ball, and will thus keep the other offense off the field. 2) they had the 10th best turnover ratio last year, with an even +1.00/game. That could improve even more with the maturation of QB Dalton. With TCU, bet on a good rush game, a better offense than weve seen in the past, and a dominating defense, even if its not right away. We could know right away with TCU, as their September is testing:
Final Schedule:
9/12: @ Virginia ---- Win
9/19: Texas State ---- Win
9/26: @ Clemson ----- Win
10/3: SMU ---- Win
10/10: @ Air Force ---- Win
10/17: Colorado St. ----- Win
10/24: @ BYU ---- Win
10/31: UNLV --- Win
11/7: @ San Diego St --- Win
11/14: Utah --- Win
11/21: @ Wyoming --- Win
11/28: New Mexico ---- Win
12-0 (8-0)
So yea, I have TCU as this year's newest installment of an undefeated non-BCS team. A couple of things though: 1) the trip to Clemson is going to be very difficult. I hate Clemson, they always underachieve, I dont have them in the top 25, but they can still be a tough team to play at home. 2) BYU has the most favorable schedule inside the MWC. The Cougars play Oklahoma non-conference, but they get Utah and TCU at home in-conference. Utah has the least favorable, having to travel to both, and TCU splits them. BYU underachieved last year, got destroyed by both TCU and Utah, and plays a tough non-conf schedule this year, but you cant count them out of the MWC race, especially with the favorable schedule. In the long run, I simply think that TCU is the best team of the three, and will beat them both. The 3 tough games for TCU are @ Clemson, @ BYU, and home against Utah, but all of them are winnable.
No comments:
Post a Comment