Florida State tied for the Atlantic Division championship last year, but their head to head loss to Boston College meant they would not go to the ACC championship game. They took their frustration out on Wisconsin in the Champs Sports Bowl, blasting them 42-13, and finishing the season 9-4 (5-3). I wouldnt count on the recent allegations against the program and Bobby Bowden as being a distraction. The question is: will this be another step in the right direction to return the program to dominance, or will FSU continue to be mediocre as it has been the last few years? Lets see:
Offense:
It seems that since Chris Weinke left, the program has never established a solid Quarterback. At least this year, the Seminoles know who their QB will be going into the season. That is Junior Christian Ponder. He is anything but the second coming of Charlie Ward and Chris Weinke though; as evidenced by his 15-14 TD-INT ratio. He does pose a small threat to run though, as he tallied up 430 yards rushing last year. A whole new crop of skill position players will need to be implemented. RB Jermaine Thomas is the leading returnee from the backfield. He only rushed for 482 yards last year, but that was on only 69 carries! Thats a 7.0 yd/rush average, which is huge. Junior D'Vontrey Richardson averaged 7.3 yd/carry last year himself, and the two backs may provide a nice 1-2 punch. There are no Peter Warricks on this team. The leading returnee for receivers is now Sophomore Taiwan Easterling, who caught 30 balls for 322 yards last year. Someone must step up.
The best news about the offense is that it returns all five offensive linemen. The line is lead by Guard Rodney Hudson. These linemen are obviously responsible for opening holes for Thomas and Richardson. If they can, those two can be very explosive, and very efficient.
I have been critical of FSU's play calling in the past. It seems like for no reason whatsoever, Offensive Coordinator Jimbo Fisher will just call a bomb, and it will be either incomplete, or worse yet, intercepted. The team needs to be a running team this year, at least until a TRUE wide receiver steps up. The fact is, the Seminoles have not had a real good #1 wide receiver in the past few years. Thats okay, not every team has one. What isn't okay is Fisher's stubborness (is that a word?) to refuse that the passing game wasn't working, and run the ball more. This year, he needs to run the ball more often. Just look at the numbers. You have two guys averaging more than 7 yards a game on the ground, no true WRs, a QB with a 15-14 TD-INT ratio, and all 5 of your linemen back! You can be a three year old and know that this should be a running football team. Whether Fisher will call the plays as such remains to be seen........
Defense:
While the offense has struggled through Fisher's play-calling the last few years, the defense has kept Florida State as a nationally ranked team. (Fun irrelevant fact: according to Rivals, former FSU LB Ernie Sims was the #1 recruit in 2003. Reggie Bush was #2 that year. The other #1's they have listed, from 2002 onwards are: Vince Young, Sims, Adrian Peterson, Derrick Williams, Percy Harvin, Jimmy Clausen, Terrelle Pryor, this year's Bryce Brown [RB headed to Tennessee], and next year they have OL Seantrel Henderson #1, uncommitted. That is quite the illustrious list.) Anyway, the defense has kept the Seminoles head's afloat. Last year they finished 6th in the nation in pass defense, and 26th in scoring defense. Unfortunately, the Seminoles have lost Everette Brown to the NFL, and Myron Rolle to Oxford to become a Rhodes Scholar. The rest of the secondary returns, as well as LB Dekoda Watson. It is a defense that will reload, and can continue to be very effective. The team finished 4th in the nation in sacks last year, but expect that number to drop as they lost 3/4 linemen, including aforementioned Brown.
The schedule doesnt favor the Seminoles this year. They dont have the typical non-conference cakewalk that we've come to expect from so many big name teams. Also, many of the key conference games are on the road. If the Seminoles can play as good of defense as they did last year, theyll find themselves back in a bowl game. If they run the ball well on top of that, they can win the ACC. Im buying the talent that FSU has. They always have talent, and are always capable of putting up numbers. Still, Im a pessimist, and I know that they won't come through and fall short, just as they have the last few years:
Final Prediction:
9/7 Miami --- Win
9/12 Jacksonville State --- Win
9/19 @ BYU --- Win
9/26 South Florida ---- Win
10/3 @ Boston College ---- Win
10/10 Georgia Tech --- Loss
10/22 @ North Carolina --- Loss
10/31 N.C. State --- Loss
11/7 @ Clemson ---- Win
11/14 @ Wake Forest --- Win
11/21 Maryland --- Win
11/28 @ Florida --- Loss
8-4 (5-3)
I mean seriously, can you think of more swing games in a schedule? They could lose to Miami. They could lose to BYU. They could lose any road game they play in the ACC. They could beat GTech and NCState at home, but Im high on those other teams. I expect the ACC to play out similarly to the way it did last year. All teams are about equal. That being said, the first team to put a real run together will win their division. 5-3 could win the division again this year, any one of these swing games for FSU could mean going from playing in the ACC championship, to 3rd place in their division, and a repeat visit to the Champs Sports Bowl.
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