As you can tell, there are a lot of good conferences this year. Anytime a conference that features Boise State, probably the best non-BCS is ranked 9th nationally, you know there is pretty good depth. It should come as no surprise, as we see teams get closer and closer every year. Even though back in the old days, non-BCS conferences could win a title (BYU 1984), the separation between the top and bottom was large. That is not a 100% fair comparison as many teams used to be independents, but, you get the idea. Football is approaching what occurs in college basketball, where anyone can be a cinderella. While this may not necessarily mean that every team is capable of making the BCS, every team is getting good recruits, good facilities, good coaches, and good gameplans that allow them to compete and spring upsets. When we look back on the history of this, maybe we will circle Utah making the BCS in 04, Boise State beating Oklahoma in 2006-07, or Appalachian State beating Michigan. Whatever it is, its happening. On with the WAC........
Idaho has struggled, well, pretty much forever. They won 2 games last year, and gave up an average of 42 pts/game, 3rd worst in the nation. QB Nathan Enderlee returns from a 2,000 yd campaign, and that may be the best news for the Vandals. They won 1 game 2 years ago, 2 games last year,.....is 3 wins in their future? Looking at their schedule, probably not. Set the over/under at 2.5 and bet the under.
New Mexico State didnt fare much better last year. In fact, they lost to Idaho, but they did win 3 games, against Nevada, UTEP, and Alcorn State. The running game averaged 54 yds/game, 2nd worst in the nation. Surprisingly, the pass offense averaged over 300 yd/game, 10th in the nation. However, there is a new coach for the Aggies; DeWayne Walker. He is the formed Defensive Coordinator for UCLA, and coached the Bruins in the 2007 Las Vegas Bowl in which they lost to BYU 17-16. In addition to his defensive knowledge, he is allegedly focused on running the ball more. This could help, as the Aggies have NO returning quarterbacks. They are relying on JUCO transfer Jeff Fleming. The defense allowed 35 pts/game last year. If Walker get the defense to improve, and improve the running game/become more balanced, the Aggies could improve. Still, bet on 3 wins.
Utah State won 3 games last year, beating aforementioned Idaho, NMSU, and Hawaii. Their non conference schedule featured Utah and Oregon, both in which they were blown out. QB Diondre Borell showed a lot of potential, playing in only half of the team's games, but still managing to throw for 1,000+ yards and rush for 600. He is a good fit for the spread offense. The defense was bad, giving up 35 pts/game and over 400 yds/game. Utah State is expected to score points this season, and itll be up to the defense to make sure the offense's efforts don't go for naught. I expect 5 wins.
San Jose State finished 6-6 but was not invited to a bowl game. The Spartans boasted the 21st best total defense in the nation, and 10th best pass defense. It was the offense that kept them from competing with the big names in the WAC. They averaged only 282 yds/game, and 18 pts/game. No matter how good your defense is, you will not win many games with those numbers. The key will be the offensive line. Can they protect the QB and open up running lanes? They return all 5 starters, for better or worse. If they can do a decent job, and the defense keeps up the good work, the Spartans will go bowling. THey visit the Coliseum Week 1, host Utah Week2, and go to Stanford Week 3....ouch. Even with an improved team, that could be a 0-3 start. Because of this, expect 5-6 wins.
Louisiana Tech broke out last year, finishing 8-5, beating N. Illinois in the Independence Bowl. They controlled both sides of the line last year, finishing 27th in the nation in rush offense, and 13th in the nation in rush defense. Expect the defense to be equally efficient this year. All of the offensive linemen return...meaning they can continue to dominate on the ground. If they want to compete for a WAC title, they will need to be able to move the ball through the air. Again, the return of all the linemen should help.
Hawaii finished 7-7 in their first season sans June Jones, ultimately losing to Notre Dame in the Hawaii Bowl. They lose 9 starters from their defense that was efficient last year. THe passing numbers fell after the departure of Jones and Colt Brennan, but was still the strength of their team. The rush offense didnt really exist, as they averaged only 94 yd/game. QB Greg Alexander only started the final 6 games of the year, but had a TD-INT ratio of 14-5, and threw for 1895 yards. He could be in store for a big season. Bet on a lot of high scoring games for the Warriors, and another .500 record.
Fresno State was one of the most disappointing teams last year. Billed as the next "BCS buster", the Bulldogs finished 7-6, losing to Colorado State in the New Mexico Bowl. QB Tom Brandstater is gone, and the Bulldogs do not have a returning player that has completed any passes. They return nine starters on defense, and that should improve their rush defense, which ranked 108th in the nation last year, allowing over 200 yd/game. The offense will focus on running the ball early in the season, and often. If the defense can improve and rebound from their injuries, the whole team will improve. THe schedule is not easy; they travel to Wisconsin, Cincinnati, and Illinois non-conference. Bet on 6-7 wins
Nevada finished 7-6 and lost to Maryland in the Humanitarian Bowl. They return nearly all of their weapons on offense. The headliner, of course, is QB Colin Kaepernick. As a Sophomore last year, Kaepernick threw for 2800 yds, and rushed for 1100 yds. On top of this dual threat, RB Vai Taua returns, who rushed for over 1500 yds last year. It should come as no surprise that this unusual, "Pistol Offense" (where the QB is in a short shotgun, and the RB lines up behind him) finished 3rd in the nation in rushing, and 5th overall in total yardage. The rush defense was just as effective last year, allowing only 88 yd/game, 6th best in the nation. Unfortunately the pass defense finished dead last. This does not bode well for them against opponents such as Notre Dame or Mizzou. IT must improve. If it does, and everyone stays healthy, by the end of the year, the Wolfpack can be a serious contender to Boise State for WAC supremacy.
Look for an in-depth Boise State preview in the top 25 rankings, soon to come!
FInal Predictions.
1. Boise State
2. Nevada
3. Louisiana Tech
4. San Jose State
5. Hawaii
6. Fresno State
7. Utah State
8. New Mexico State
9. Idaho
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