Why am I not in charge of ESPN Classic or other?

Why am I not in charge of ESPN Classic/ESPNU/some channel that shows classic college football?  I dont get it.  I realized this today when I was thinking about the Boise State vs ORegon game this Thursday.  Can I really be expected to give a thorough preview?  I saw Boise State like 3 times last year, Oregon even less times.  So what I said to myself was, "I wish they had last years game on ESPNU this week".  It doesnt seem like that extravagant of a request, since ESPNU has been showing games from 2008 ALL SUMMER.  Yet, this game has been excluded.  So I went through ESPNUs schedule for the next week, and there is nothing.  All of Monday and Tuesday is something called coaches spotlight.  Dont worry, Ill watch it and let you know how it is.  I can see it being really good, unless it is a repeat over and over (its on all day).  

So then I check ESPN Classic.  In the past, Classic has shown games from previous years of games that were to be played in the week.  So for example, for this week, they would show old FSU Miami games, last years Oregon Boise game, Rutgers Cinci maybe, and whatever good games of teams that are playing.  This makes more sense once conference starts, and the teams have 80 previous encounters or whatever.

Again, no Boise Oregon 08!   There is a lot of college football on though.  Which I like.  The games you could probably guess.  There is some good and some bad.  From now til Thursday Night, you have:

2002 Nebraska Mississippi Independence Bowl (I have no recollection of this game.  I can place it, its a year after Nebraska was in the title game.  It was a year before Miss played Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl.  Eli Manning was of course on Miss.  I even went to a Nebraska game this year - loss to Colorado, and I dont remember this game.

2004 Oklahoma LSU Title Game - this game sucks, but Ill enjoy watching SGB lose a game he was favored in, (and shouldnt have been in).

1983 Sugar Bowl  Pitt UGA  - Good game, but Ive seen it 1000 times.

1979 Sugar Bowl Penn State Bama  - I dont think I have ever seen this, maybe parts.

2003 Fiesta Bowl Ohio State Miami -- I honestly think this is an over rated game.  I mainly think this cause they fucked Miami big time.  How could you say a game is classic when a team gets so obviously screwed?  THat and I dont like Ohio State.  IVe seen this game 1000 times.

1998 Virginia Tech Miami - This is an okay game.  Its pre Vick, and not the season in which they go to the title game.

1996 NW USC Rose Bowl -- Pretty good game.  Keyshawn Johnson was obviously unstoppable.

1988 Oklahoma OKie State --- Never seen it, but looking forward to it.  Barry Sanders obviously is the main attraction.

2008 Oklahoma Texas - Obviously wrote a whole post about this game already.

1997 Sugar Bowl Florida FSU  --- Terrible Game.  Florida bombed it every play, and it worked.

1991 Miami FSU --- Wide Right I.  Definite classic.  Which brings me to this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PR3SXPfO-Qk&feature=PlayList&p=6D6569A4EF988344&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=8

One of the best things Ive seen on youtube.  Its a ripoff of the 1986 Game 6 World Series to RBI baseball, but rules anyway.  I love Keith Jackson.  If they played that song after the missed it to the right in the stadium, that would be awesome.

So that is 11 games.  With no rhyme or reason.  Those are the best 11 games they came up with?  Theres some title games, some bowl games, some regular season games.  If you could pick 11 games from all time to watch - would you pick any of those?  How many?  Not to mention, they show the SAME games over and over.

There are some games that I would love to see again, or have never seen and would like to see.....

Where is ND Miami 88?  ND Penn State 92?  Where is Alabama Miami 92 SUgar Bowl?  Where is the Michigan Alabama Orange Bowl.  If I had to rank the best BCS games --- id put Michigan Bama Orange Bowl #3 --- behind 2005 National Title (which gets a little boost because of the fact it was for the title), and 2005 Rose Bowl (whatever year was Michigan Texas). This ranking puts them right ahead of maybe Boise Oklahoma.

Its fun, I might do this soon, to rank all the BCS games.  THe ones I would rank as the worst are probably, in no order:

Utah Pitt 05 (that is in order, that was the worst), UGA Hawaii 08, Oklahoma Wazzu 03, Colorado Oregon 02, Florida Maryland 02, probably LSU Illinois 02 and even the title game of 02 - Nebraska Miami.   It is undeniable that 01-02 was the worst year of BCS games.  Not even close.  Not one of them was good.  

I never saw the 07 Orange Bowl betewen Louisville and Wake Forest.  Some of the early BCS games are kinda fuzzy ---- I dont really remember Syracuse Florida 98, and for some reason I dont remember Miami FSU 04 Orange Bowl.  I dont know why.  Maybe Ill rank the 47 games sometime soon.  

BUt back to my point, why do they play this shittiest stuff on classic?  

Where is Penn State Miami 86?  Where is any game from 1994 other than Colorado Michigan?  Where is any game from 1995?  Where is the Nebraska FSU 1993 title game?  How many times have you seen any of these games?  Where is the Earthquake Game?  Instead, I have to watch part 1 and part 2 from youtube:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHRl9jrD0FI

How come there are no Michigan ND 1987-1993 games featured?   Where is the game of the century - ND FSU 1993?  Where is the ND MSU game with Charlie Rogers and Arnaz Battle providing late fireworks (02?).  Where is ND Nebraska where Crouch scores the game winner?  Where is Nebraska Oklahoma 01 with the throwback play to Crouch?  

Where is Ohio State Michigan State 98?  Where is Ohio State Purdue 02?  Where is Northwestern Michigan whatever year it was whatever, 55-45?  (02?).  Where is Purdue Georgia Capital one Bowl?  Where are those Iowa Michigan games from the early 2000s?  Where is Penn State Minnesota 99? (This one is actually kinda on often).  

Seriously, where the fuck is Arizona State Ohio State Rose Bowl.  This could be a top 5-10 game of our lifetime, and Ive seen it maybe 3-4 times.  Not to mention, you get the absolute greatest Musburger of all time:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1HtofWTGGk

Just seriously take 10 mins out of your life and watch those highlights.  You get Musburger.  You get Vermeil.  The national championship is on the line for the Sun Devils.  If that lateral on the blocked field goal wasnt forward, that would have won the title for ASU. That would have been one of the greatest plays ever.  Snake Plummer was so cool under pressure.  Burger had the Sun Devils, which leads to the absolute greatest announcing moment of all time.  I wont ruin it if you never heard it - 6:17 - 6:27.

I kinda hate these youtubes, cause fanboys of a team post them.  So this fag from OSU posted this, and you get biased highlight footage.  

Musburger sounds more heartbroken that Plummer looks.

Ill leave it at that for today.

Where 

LVSC index

The Las Vegas Sports Consultants Index - POwer Rankings are finally up.  

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/story.cfm/story/895090

I use this as a holy grail of everything.  That is, its a pretty accurate ranking methodology, and it sets spreads.  So for example, Florida has an index of 121.4, and Oklahoma 118.4.  That means if they played in Pasadena for the tile right now, Florida should be a 3 point favorite (121.4-118.4).  Generally, home field is worth 5 points.  So if they played in Gainesville, Florida would be favored by 8, and if they played in Norman, Oklahoma would be favored by 2.  THis is just a guideline.  Sooooo....in our hypothetical title game again, in Pasadena, if Florida was less than a 3 point favorite, you should take them.  If they were more, you should take Oklahoma.  LVSC is just saying that on a neutral field, Florida is 3 points better than Oklahoma.  

So lets try to apply this to Week 1 games. 

Boise State is rated behind Oregon, and would be about a 3 point favorite.  IN reality, they are a 5 point favorite.  So its pretty close.  Remember, that 5 point addition to a home field is just a benchmark.  In Boise States case, it might actually be more, since they have not lost at home in a few years.  It is about right on.  When this happens, I would say that you might get some value in taking Oregon +5, but it doesnt mean that they are a lock to cover, will cover, or will even lose by less than 21...it just means there is a LITTLE value there.  

Im imaging that these rankings take into account the injury to VT RB Darren Evans.   Since his injury, the spread has gone up to Alabama -7.  Again, Bama is about 5 points higher on the index rating, so very close (remember this game is on a neutral field, which is what the index is based on).  So same thing, you might get some value in taking Virginia Tech, but inconclusive overall. 

Ok State should be favored by 7, and they are favored 6.  Again, right on.  Cant wait to watch that game on DVR.

You could also look ahead and see that depending what happens, USC and OSU will be a pick em. 

THe obvious limitation to this is that it only ranks 30 teams.  However, sometimes you can get a grasp on a spread no matter what.  E.G.   Rutgers is ranked.  Cinci isnt.  Rutgers is AT LEAST 0.5 points better than Cinci (as the lowest team ranked is 0.5 below), and Rutgers is at home that week.  So, they should be at least a 5.5 favorite.  Rutgers could be a good pick Week 1.  

This doesnt work when we want to measure the value in the Notre Dame Nevada game, as we have no idea where Nevada is ranked.  All we can say is, ND should be at least favored by 9, but since they are favored by 14, we can't argue any which way.  

Other than that, there always figures to be some interesting - different teams on the list.  What jumps out at me of course is Illinois.  I said earlier that they should give Penn State trouble this year.  Well, if that game was played tomorrow, they would be favored over Penn State (its in Champaign this year).  The #1 rule of betting is that you dont know anything that Vegas doesnt know...think about DeNiro in Casino.  Dont try to figure out some angle that they havent thought of.  So, even though I have seen every Illinois game since 2004, Im imagining that they have as well, or know more about them than I do.  That being said, it is hard to believe that they have them ranked higher than UGA, Boise, or Virginia Tech.  

LVSC does not think highly of Michigan State, which means that a ND -3.5 vs the Spartans price tag looks VERY attractive.  

Thats all I see for right now.  You can play around with future matchups and that. 

Thoughts and rest of the top 25

Yea, I get upset when the preview says 1983 BYU-UCLA on ESPN Classic, and then I turn it on, and its the Little League World Series.  True, I got a Musburger buzz.  Within 25 seconds he made some joke about a kids age, then clarified that he was only joking and that the mother did provide a birth certificate.  Amazing that this week hell be there, next week hell be in Atlanta, 2 weeks hell be in Columbus.

Ive become busy. I hope to keep writing on this blog once the season starts.  In fact, I thought that the blog would become better once the season did start.  Right now I cant really tell you anything more than what you can read in a magazine preview.  

Speaking of which, one of the few people I like on ESPN.com is Bruce Feldman. He wrote a book 3 years ago about recruiting, and Ole Miss is specified in it.  He wrote about how he thought they were building and would be good very soon (obviously was right).  THen you log onto ESPN, and you have to read Pat Forde (who I dont like) write an article about Ole Miss and how HE thinks theyll be good.  Like, thats some newsflash.  Your colleague writes a book three years ago about a team, and then you write an article on the same subject, after the fact.  Nice foresight Pat!   What do you think Feldman thinks of this?   Did scientists go up to Einstein years after his Theory of Relativity and say "hey, Al, I think I figured out this theory."  Or "did you ever hear about this Albert?".  What an ass, but I can't really blame him.  Wouldn't ESPN just ask Feldman to write the article on Ole Miss?

So, going off what I said earlier, you should know that the final 4 teams in my countdown are USC, Alabama, Texas, and Florida, in that order.  I don't really feel like writing an in-depth preview like I did with the other teams, but will mention some brief things about each team.  If you don't know who is on each team, or who they are playing, or whatever at this point, then you probably shouldn't be reading my blog.  Anyway:

4. USC

I ultimately gave the edge to Alabama over USC because the Tide return more of their defense.  I think USC's offense could be just as good as the years they had Leinart-Bush-White.  THe obvious question is at QB, and it is still unanswered.  As of today, Aaron Corp returned to practice.  He was the frontrunner, but Barkley will ultimately be a stud.  I dont know who will start, but I'm sure he will have earned it - (more on this later).  THey have an extraordinary amount of talent on the offensive side.  RBs Stafon Johnson, Joe McKnight, and CJ Gable all return, and all split time last year.  There was actually word of moving McKnight to cornerback.  They also have WRs Damien Williams, Ronald Johnson, and according to AthlonSports, the best Offensive Line in the nation.  If Sanchez returned, many people would be saying that it would be the best offense in the nation.  Could it still be?

Well, I dont know.......   how big of a role does the QB actually play in an offense.  The first instinctive answer would be "a ton, are you kidding?"  But think about the Patriots last year.  Did Cassell have a good year?  Were the Pats good?   Yes to both, but not as good probably as Brady and not as good as Pats 2007.  Pats 2007 to Pats 2008 is an unfair comparison, and so is Pats to Trojans, but you get the idea.  Whoever ends up being the QB will be surrounded with tons of talent.  Whenever you have a good line protecting you, a stable of backs to hand off to, and talented receivers to throw to, you'll be okay.  THe problem is is that they travel to the Horseshoe on Sept. 12th.  That will be an extremely difficult test.  It'll be the second start, the first road start for whichever QB, and it should be interesting to see what USC comes up with.  Last year's game was close for a while before the defense took over, something that needs to rebuilt this year.

The only other obvious flaw with USC is that they need to rebuild their defense.  They lost however many players to the NFL draft in 08, and whoever they put in should be good, but how good how quickly?  Can they replace Mauluga, Cushing, and Matthews?  Prob not.  Will they have to?  Eventually, if they want to win more than a Pac-10 title.  Despite being nationally significant every year since 01, the Trojans have not won the national title in five years.  The past 4 years in which they didnt win the title has been a mix of problems.  In 05 they lost to Texas, and really blew that game.  In 06, they would have been in the title game if they didnt lose 13-9 to UCLA --- the offenses fault right?  Well, they also lost 33-31 earlier that year to Oregon State, so that would indicate the defense was at fault.  In 07, they lost to Stanford and Oregon (both Ill blame on the defense), and last year they got run all over by Oregon State (defenses fault).  So oddly enough, the offense has, for the most part, done its part.  

Safety Taylor Mays needs to be mentioned.  I would take him #1 overall in the NFL draft.  Hes 6'3" 230 lbs, and runs a 4.3 40.  That is linebacker speed and CB speed, placed at safety.  He doesn't make as many big plays as Tennessee safety Eric Berry, but is a bigger hitter.  SS Josh Pinkard also returns.

So why so much faith in the defense and the quarterback position?  Well, USC, and probably all of the top programs, have such competition amongst positions.  DO you really think that Corp or Barkley will suck?  I mean, odds are, more likely than not, theyll be good.  That is based on nothing, I know, and if they suck, Ill be the first to admit it, but in the past 10 years, has USC shown any signs of recruiting and ultimately playing a bad player?  

Think about Rudy.  Yeah, the Notre Dame Rudy.  We all love Rudy.  I get chills every time I watch the part where the assistant coach gives the wanna-bes the speech of how none of them will ever dress, and will be used as tackling dummies and run the oppositions plays, and then they hit the ropes and the music plays.  If you don't like Rudy, you are an idiot.  

Anyway, think about what Rudy brought to the table.  Intensity in practice.  What happens?  He tackles Vince Vaughn.  Vaughn gets upset.  Coach Parseghian yells at Vaughn, and says something along the lines of  "if you had half the heart of Ruettiger's, then you would be All-American, instead, you just got demoted to third team offense".  

There are two points to this story.  One:  Vaughn was expendable.  ND, USC of this decade, and most major programs this decade have such an embarrassment of riches, that if the heralded recruit has an attitude problem, or if for any reason isnt living up to potential, they just sit him.  You don't wanna work hard or aren't filling your potential, then we will put someone else in that is just as good as you.

Two, Ruettiger could never really move up.  He was limited by his size.  Despite having the biggest heart and fire in him, he was, as Fortune says, "five foot nothing, 100 and nothing".  So, all of his shortcomings could not be made up for. At the top programs, such as USC, everyone is a freak athlete.  Well, not everyone, but there is more competition.  Im not saying that anyone on USC or any other program has Ruettiger's psyche, I'm just saying that the more competition, the better.  Any single week that you are slacking, there is someone behind you that is just as big, just as physical, and if they are outworking you, they will play instead of you.  Whoever ND's defensive ends were never were threatened by being overtaken by Rudy on shear size alone.  

That is the case at USC though.  Imagine that you have 30 all americans in high school.   Say 30/100 of the best defensive players in the nation, and that could be being generous.  Then, say 6 of those are safeties, and are going to sit behind Pinkard and Mays.  So now, you have 24 people competing for 9 positions.  Doesn't that sound like something that will produce good results?  Not only that, but dont keep up the good work?  Play like shit against San Jose State, etc?  Then someone else will play.  That is how you get to be better, the best, and fulfill your highest potential.

The same thing is in play at QB.  BIll Simmons has talked about the spirit of competition many times.  He talks about it in reference to Kobe, Lebron, etc, all being on the USA Olympic team.  Well, this is different because the QBs are on the same team.  BUT..................say Sanchez returned.  He would kinda be the chosen one/projected to be the starter/the favorite, etc.   He probably would not be pushed as much as the 2 QBs who are competing now.  I would make a Tebow/McCoy/Bradford comparison here, but I think that those guys have enough fire under their ass to motivate themselves (Tebow especially).  I mean, there is no way that anyone can compete and take the job from Tebow.  So QB X would become lackadaisical, and accept his position.  This isn't the case at USC for ANY position.  The best player will play.

On the flip side, there are times in college, and more often the pros, where prima donna, cry baby player with tons of talent plays despite not being the best.  You ever watch the Cubs or hear of Alfonso Soriano?  Or, for a football case, Martez Wilson for Illinois......   He was rated top 20 by most places coming out of High School, top 5 some places.  He played on Special Teams fresh year, OLB Soph year.  He has been anything but spectacular.  Is he really being pushed?  By nature, he is the best athlete on Illinois' defense.  He is not really facing a threat to lose his job.  He can coast and still play.  He will not achieve his full potential until he lights a fire under himself (I doubt he can), or someone else does.

Right now, picking every game, I take USC to win every game.  Overall, they probably lose a couple, but still win the PAc-10.  They travel to Columbus, South Bend, Eugene, and Berkeley.  Ouch.  They shouldn't lose at home, or any other games.  10-2 shoudl be the worst they go.  

3.  Alabama

As Musburger said, Alabama is going to use Julio Jones in tons of new, inventive ways.  I really can't wait to see what they come up with.  (Bama is up to -7 now that VT RB Evans is out....I wonder if Burger got that at -4.5...knowing his level of intelligence he probably did..................................he might have even been in on this "injury" of Evans.)  Anyway, the combination of this freak athlete Jones (who is built like Owens), and Saban should come up with tons of great packages.  They need to find a new QB, RB, and offensive line.  

Bama is kinda like the opposite of USC, in that, they return almost all of their defense.  Nose Tackle Terrance Cody is a future first round pick, LB Rolando McClain is a future first rounder, and CB Javier Arenas is, you guessed it, a future first rounder.  The only piece they really lose or are going to miss is S Rashad Johnson.  He led the team in INTs last year.    I read somewhere that Cody, despite being 6'5" 356 Lbs, can dunk a Basketball.  That is one of the most ridiculous things I have ever heard.  The point is is that the defense is going to be awesome.  If they can get past VT, they have a couple more games to get the offense figured out before they host Arkansas 9/26.

I would say that the under in the opener is a lock, but it could be the situation where the defense is TOO good.  THat is, they pin a team inside the 1, get a punt and return it to the other teams 20.  Now, under most conditions, neither team will be able to drive the field, but only 20 yards?  That, or theres a sack-fumble, pick6, anything.  There are instances where defenses were too good to make an under.  

Most notable instance of this is the 2006 Orange Bowl between Penn State and Florida State.  Not only their defenses being too good, the game went to 3Ots.  It was one of the worst losses in gambling I ever had....including:  Monday Night Football Colts vs Bucs (I wanna say this was 03?), where TB was up 21 with 4 mins left, then lost, aided by a leaping call,  UCONN -2 vs Duke in 04 FF, where Duhon hit a halfcourt 3 at the buzzer to lose by 1, and Auburn -7 in the 05 Sugar Bowl where they were winning by 16 with like 7 mins left.  They then let VT go right down the field, and then bomb it with 230 left for 80 yd TD and win 16-14.  THat was especially painful because I just had my tonsils out that morning, and couldnt even move as I watched it.  

I know you find it hard to imagine I was on the losing end of all these games, as some of them are historically bad, but I was.   To get in a better mood, Ill talk about some of my "luckier" covers:

Arizona +2 in the Elite Eight vs Illinois.  While they should have covered, as they were winning the whole game, I kinda bet on Arizona as a hedge.  If they won, Id be pissed, but win $$$$.  If they lost, it would have been worth whatever I bet for Illinois to make the FF.  Somehow, after all the commotion that we all know about now, Illinois won by 1, which made it a win-win.  

Hmmmmm, thats all I can remember.  Ill need to think about this more.  You really only remember your bad losses, never the good ones.

'Bama though, they go to Ole Miss and host LSU.  Ill say they win both.  They dont play UGA or Florida.  Theyll probably go undefeated and then lose to Florida in the SEC title game, same as last year.

2.  Texas

Texas is very balanced.   They have McCoy, RB Cody Johnson, who should be a battering ram, Jordan Shipley, and 3 linemen returning.  They also have 7 returning starters on defense, featuring DE Sergio Kindle.  I can't believe I would ever like Texas, and I don't, but compared to Oklahoma, theyre the 85 Bears/96 BUlls/92 Blackhawks rolled into one.  Well, not really, but theyre cooler than Oklahoma.  

Ill take them to be the runners-up to.......

1.  Florida

If you don't know who is on this team, then shame on you.

A quick note though.  Think about how remarkable it is that they return 11 starters on defense.  There isn't another team in the nation that returns 11 starters on either side of the ball.  Thats 120 teams, 2 sides, 240 total.  So out of 240, theres only 1 that returns 11 people.  And it happens to be the national champions, and its a unit that finished 4th in scoring defense, and 9th in total defense.  That is probably unprecedented.  If Ohio returned 11 starters on offense, no one would raise an eyebrow, but when the champions return everyone on their already stout defense, well then, yeah, they should be #1.  If that weren't enough, they return 6 starters on offense, including Tebow.  

Their toughest games should be their rival UGA in Jacksonville, and a trip to Death Valley.  They could lose either.  In reality, I dont see them losing period.  If they lost just one game, as they did last year, they would still probably win the SEC East, then the title, and be invited to the title game in Pasadena (just like last year).  First, lets look at the SEC East.  Compare them to UGA.  Say they lost to UGA.  Looking at UGAs schedule, we know that it is difficult.  UGA could beat Florida, and still not win the SEC east (unlikely, but possible).  I dont really see any way that Florida doesnt win the SEC east.  At that point, it comes down to one game (unless you are Oklahoma, who could routinely lose their conf title game and make the championship, or somehow win some tiebreaker over teams you lost to and make the title game), the SEC title game.  They figure to play Miss, Bama, or LSU.  THey win that, which they should be favored in, and theyll advance to the championship game.  What I am saying is, Florida is kinda already in a final four situation.  They need to win the SEC title game, and the national championship to repeat.  That is true of anyone of course, (again, other than OK), but they should advance to that "final four" situation rather easily.

Thats it.  

Ill talk more about Oregon boise state next week, hopefully.   NC State losing LB Nate Irving for the season really hurts, and knocks them out of my top 25.  Ill put Oregon State in as their replacement.  That is a tough game to pick now.  

Like I said, Ill be busy.....but I should still find time to preview some games, write recaps of some games, blabber about funny things I see through the course of a Saturday/weekend, etc.  

Random THoughts II

I keep procrastinating.  I know this.  You know who the top 5 teams are.  I know them.  YOu know what I will say about them.  Did you hear about this guy Tebow?   BUt because of this, Im a little more apt to procrastinating.  Its like, I feel like I may be telling you something you dont know when I talk about Kansas or Michigan State, but not if I talk about Texas or Alabama.  So, guess what

RANDOM THOUGHTS PART II:

In no particular order.

1) Who do you think drinks the Miller High LIfe that is in the garbage can of the McFlys in the end of Back to the Future.  THe first obvious answer would be the mom.  She originally is drinking cheap vodka in the original 1985.  Now, it would be that she moved up to the high life (this is definitely intended by Zemeckis).  BUt, I would argue that if she has moved up, is now fit, thin, playing tennis, etc....that she wouldnt be drinking at all.   SO scratch her off the list.   George?  Prob not.   Dave?  I dont get Dave.  Originally, he works at a burger joint or something.  Do you really think hes 22+ in age?  It seems like originally that he would be in community college/not in college and working at this burger place.  But then in the new 1985, hes wearing a suit and is successful.  Why would he be living at home if he is employed at a good place?  That, and he must be 22+.  He must have a degree if he is going to the office every day.  I cant really see him kicking back and enjoying some High Lifes.   They could have had a party since they are all popular now, but there would probably be more beer than just one.   Weird.

2)  I have been watching a lot of Family Ties.  It is honestly one of the funniest shows I have ever seen.  I know that online, its hard to discern between sarcasm and honesty, well, know I am being honest.  It is funny.  I have a teenage crush on Mallory.  If I ever date a girl that is 7.1428% (1/14th) as hot as Meredith Baxter-Birney.  I started watching this in that I have to psyche myself up to watch MadMen because it is a little slow.  The Wire was not slow.

Season 3 of The Wire was the closest thing to perfection, tv or movie, that I have ever seen.  

SPOILERS AHEAD

It is.  YOu have the Avon vs Stringer dichotomy.   STringer was my favorite character.  You get Avon's talk to him "maybe your too dumb for that outside world, and too weak for this right here" or something along those lines.  Then String tells him that he killed D'Angelo and slams Avon and yells in his face.  BEyond intense.  The second best scene in the whole series.  The first best is also in season III wehn Bunk meets Omar on the bench and talks about how it once was.  Its kinda out of place, theres no doubt, but its too poetic to be ignored.  Great acting, great everything.  On top of this, String gets killed, Bunny Colvin emerges, and you have your Hamsterdam situation.

Would hamsterdam really cut down on crime?  I dont know.   I understand it was Bunny's "paper bag" equivalent to the beer bottle that they can do this to drugs.  Well, I think it would work, but also make things bad too.  It seems plausible that this happened.  Season 5 I didnt really like because the McNulty being a fake serial killer was kinda too far fetched for me.  Season 3 was just right.  And then, you get Bubbles walking with his new protege, collecting aluminum, when they run into Bunny.  Bubbles tells Bunny about how the area used to be (dramatic irony, because we know that Bunny knows, but Bubbles doesnt know that), and all Bunny can say, after hes stripped of his job, forced to retire, forced to retire at a lower pension level, says "how did you feel about that?"  

Part of you wants to say, say it was a good thing Bubbles.  BUt that would be way too weak.  He says exactly what you know hes gonna say:  "it was what it was".

How perfect of an ending was that?   I get chills just thinking about it.  Normally I dont like ambiguous/open ended films/tv shows.  I think its a cop out.  I want the writer/director to make a stand, but this wire was perfect.  For example, I dont like the series finale of The Sopranos where we see Tony eating onion rings while listening to Journey.  I mean, yeah, I can imagine what happens (probably gets whacked), but that was kinda upsetting.    Is The Wire the greatest show of all time?  Maybe.  But season 3 is definitely the top 3 seasons of all time.

3)  I was thinking about what teams' winning pct of games that I attended was, and I think that Notre Dame has the highest pct.   ND is 4-1 in games I attended.  Not only that, but big games.  The last time they beat USC, I was there.  I was there in 02 when they beat Michigan.  I saw them lose to MSU in 05 (prob best game of theirs I was at), 05 they beat Syracuse, and 06 beating Penn State.  That is obviously an .800 winning pct.

The Cubs I think I am .0000.  Its the Bluto GPA equivalent, only instead of "zero point zero", I am "point zero."  The White Sox; I have seen too many games to count.  Illinois football is below .500.  But what about Illinois Basketball?

It would be close.   I know they went undefeated at home my freshman year.  On top of that, they won in the sweet 16 vs UW Milwaukee, and Elite8 vs Zona which I was at.  So thats nice.  Then,  I know sophomore year, they lost their streak to Penn State.   BUT, I wasnt at that game.  CanMan and some of his roomates were at school, and I sold my tickets.  So they have a 1.000 win pct through 2 years.  

Junior year they lost to Maryland.  I was there.  I can still see Rich McBride turning it over in a crucial spot.  After that, they lost twice more at home, but I dont think I was at either.  I know I was not at Jan 6 game vs Ohio State (the year they made it to the finals), because that was winter break and you dont get those tickets.  They lost to #3 Wisconsin on Jan. 20, and I dont think that was included either.  So I am X-1 in the whole 3 years.  

Senior year, I couldn't tell you what I was at and what I wasnt.  I honestly only went to maybe half the games.  They lsot a ton of games at home, but again, I wasnt at MANY of them.  The worst home loss in all 4 years came to Indiana in double OT.  It was the worst game ever.  Illinois sucked, Indy sucked, they kept playing, it was horrible.  Pruitt missed 4 FTs when one make would have won the game.  Homo Eric Gordon banks in an NBA 3 to tie the game.  They lose.  Crushing.  Worst overall game was the title game in 05 of course.  This was worst game I saw in person.  Only good that came out of it was that my friend Brad and I, who went ot the game, then saw Kenny Battle in the bar.  So good even came out of that.

So if I had to guess, Id say Illinois Basketball wins, but ND football is a close 2nd.

4)  Edward Norton might be the best actor of my lifetime in which the qualifications are that all of your work must be during my life (1985 - ).  Therefore, DeNiro, while he has made good films since 85, is disqualified since he was in stuff pre-1985.  Without too much research, Ill take Norton.  He is unbelievable in Fight Club.   GReat in The People vs Larry Flynt.  Awesome in Rounders.  And perfect in American History X.  The fact that he didnt win best actor for AH-X befuddles me.  

How do you act this well:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hEtN0-vF90

How do you act this well:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_vYxupqL2s&feature=related

The answer is, you dont, unless you are the best.

Not taking anything away from DeNiro, but his character gets repetitive.  That, and is he cool cause the movies are cool, or are the movies cool cause of him?  LIke, I would think that Godfather II is awesome if someone else plays Vito.  But, he wins best actor for that role.  Does that mean him learning Sicilian and dominating the role is diminished?  No, but its like, it wasnt entirely unique.

In Taxi Driver and The Deer Hunter hes either a vietnam war guy, a Post Traumatic Stress Disorder veteran, or both.  He plays them well (he wins best actor for Deer Hunter).  But then you get Raging BUll, King of Comedy, GoodFellas, Untouchables, Casino, Cape Fear.  What is he in all of them?  Italian.  All with Scorsese sans Untouchables.  It turns into a kind of a one trick pony.

Look at Norton though.  Hes a lawyer in Larry Flynt.  Hes a degenerate gambler in Rounders.  Hes a nazi in AH-X.  He is some sort of a mid life crisis-existentialist crisis, split personality disorder fuck up in Fight Club.  Hes great.

The best actor of all time in my opinion is Dustin Hoffman.   Look at his roles.  If he isn't in Kramer vs Kramer, it doesnt win best picture, and I probably never watch it.  Hes a single father raising a 5?  year old kid.  Hes awesome in it.  Totally believable.  Merryl Streep is great too (probably best actress of last 30 years), and the two of them just kill it.  Replace them with actor and actress X and Y, and its just some movie.  Replace Deniro as Mickey in Goodfellas and I bet the movie is still awesome.

But the best performance in any movie ever is Hoffman as Rain Man / Raymond Babbit in Rain Man.  Do I need to describe this any further?

5)  Danny Larusso is actually a really cool character.  I mean, hes an ass to his mom, which I dont like.  Hes a cry-baby to Myagai.  I dont like that.  But put yourself in his position.  YOu move from (I believe Minnesota) to Cali.  This theme would be copied in Beverly Hills 90210 if you look at Brenda and Brandon Walsh.  But he moves, meets a cool kid in the complex, and goes out right away.  He gets beat up by a senior, Johnny, but meets Elizabeth Shue immediately.  She wants him right away.  He is in Cali for 24 hours, and is already macking on the hottest babe at the High School.  Thats smooth.  

Then, nobody likes him but Shue.  He trains with Myagi, keeps his head up, gets a cool classic car, and then wins the karate tournament.  Thats quite an eventful few months.  He is the new big man on campus.

Why didn't Shue's career take off.  Shes hot.  Shes hot in this movie.  Shes hot in her  limited roles in Back to the Future II/III.  Then, she disappears, only to come back and win best actress for Leaving Las Vegas (where shes also hot).  She could have been big.

Its weird who wins best actor/actress though.  Its like, you kinda have to be lucky.  Marino is top 5 QB of all time and has no Super Bowls, but Dilfer has one.  But for actor/actress, you still need to be really talented.  Its still about some luck though.  I dont know why Norton didnt win for AH-X.  There are some other screw jobs too.

I dont think that if you watched Fast Times at Ridgemont High in 1981, or now, youd see that there are 3 future best actor winners.   Penn, multiple times, Whitaker, and Cage in a non speaking role.  I doubt you sat there in 1981 and said, "That fucking Whitaker is gonna be big."  Or "Hell be great as the Last King of Scotland".  You cant predict some shit that happens.

More to come, maybe?

Ill try to get back to the college football

Random Thoughts - Non Football Kinda

Okay, so I have been on like a 72 hour bender, and unable to post anything constructive on the blog.  Anything related to college football that is.  But, in a rare change of pace, I will post everything that I have observed in the past few days, and I hope that it will be just as enjoyable as the rest of my blog.  Actually, I hope it will be more enjoyable, because the rest of my blog seems to be lacking in fan support.  (I appreciate those who do follow it).  

I dont know if this is cool or not, but I have been retiring to the bathroom every fifteen minutes for the past few days, and every time, I write down notes of something to write about.  Some notes are lost.  Some are illegible.  Some are legible.  Some are legible and non-sensical.  You only get the legible, sensical, thoughts that I can write in a blog without offending anybody (a pitfall of not hanging out with me - you get the G rated version of my PG-13 rated life).  

Without further adieu.......

Ive been watching a lot of old school hip hop lately.  The top 100 hip hop videos of all time on vh1 got me hooked.  Im hooked on "Regulators" by Warren G, "Fuck the World" by 2pac.  Both of those are videos NOT on the top 100.  Somehow, on the 2pac Greatest hits double cd, fuck the world is not featured.  I dont get it.  Just type it in on youtube, and listen.  Tell me it doesnt instantly become one of your top 50 favorite songs.    Those are my pump up songs that I listen to while I stretch before I go running every day.  A song I came across today is "real compton city g'z" by Eazy E.............it is located here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btH4e0-WQAo

Truth be told, I never like Eazy E.  Why?  I dont know.  Dre never liked him.  Well, Not never.  They were of course in NWA together, but when they broke up, tensions arose.   They split, Dre made it big, Eazy not so big, and Eazy died of Aids.  Dre forgave him.  If Dre forgave him, so could I.  But, in "The Chronic" he talked shit about Easy'E  throughout.  Especially in my favorite Dre song: Dre Day, located here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTgPUiZkYOQ

Now if you know me, and you were over to my crib in 2007-2008, you know I had this song on DVR.  I would seriously watch it at least 7-9 times a day.  In it, Dre shoots Easy - E.  How could I possibly like Eazy-E when I idolize Dre, and hes killing Eazy?

However, the Eazy-E song "Real compton G's" brought something new to my attention.  

Nothing about Hip Hop.

Just something about wearing a Raiders Hat.

Im just thinking about how awesome it would be if the Raiders (or the Rams, but preferably the Raiders) were in LA still.  For those of you who dont know, I relocated to LA.  I got USC.  I guess USC is supposed to be the pro team in the area (with UCLA building), and San Diego is the team you watch on Sunday's everyday, but I think that sucks.  LA is the second biggest city in the nation, and they dont have a football team?

But think about this......think about if Oakland Raiders re-became the LA Raiders again tonight.  That is, I woke up tomorrow, stole the LA Times from my neighbors doorstop, and it said, "Al Davis moves Raiders back to LA"..........would I buy season tickets???????

IN less than a heartbeat I would.

Think about the Raiders now.

Imagine that season tickets were $420 dollars for 8 games.  That is $54 dollars a game.  That is about reasonable.   Now......do the Raiders sell out the Oakland Coliseum every game?  Lets see...   according to this, Oakland averaged 4th to last in the league in attendance  (why is Denver and SF not applicable?  they dont have new stadiums or anything?)

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/attendance?year=2008

BUt, the point is, they averaged 57,850 people a game.  The LA Coliseum holds 93,000 people.   So, would there be more people at the LA games as opposed to the Oakland games?  Im not really sure.  For the sake of the argument, lets say they are the same.  So, 57,850 / 93.000, that means, the LA coliseum is 62% full.   So what does that mean?  It means I can sit in the front row of the upper deck (not really an upper deck, but just halfway up) on the 50 yard line, and no one would complain.  Now, I know that saying that 3 out of 8 of LA Raiders home games would be against Denver, KC, and San Diego, but look at their home schedule over all.

San Diego, Denver, Philly, NY Jets, KC, Cinci, Wash, Baltimore.

Not the absolute best home schedule, but would you pay $54 a game for this?   I know that the Bears games, it is $65 a game to sit in the nose bleeds in the endzone section.  NOw imagine that you are sitting in the prime seating on the 50 yard line.  It is a Sunday afternoon, it is a perfect 80 degree LA afternoon, and fuck the Raiders, you get to see a good team play against them.   I would pay the money.

On top of this.  I am cheating a bit.  If you drove to Soldier Field, you would have to pay AT LEAST $20 for parking, and then sit in the lot for 2 hours to get out.  I have parking for USC that I can park on campus anytime I want (for the low low price of 400 dollars a semester), and thus would be available to me for every Raiders game.  To park on campus for a USC game by the way is $25 dollars, and I therefore get $150 worth if I go to all 6 USC home games, so I get my money's worth.   But, your talking that you can drive 30 minutes to the USC campus (it would be 45 mins + to drive to Soldier Field), free parking, get drunk, watch a pro game in a prime seating situation, drive home in 30 mins (it would take 2 hours plus at Soldier), and then you would be home.  Let alone, your game would be the 3 PM CST game, so you would be there at 1 PM PST, and could watch the first half of the Bears game before you left.   Your telling me it would be worth $54?

Hey, I dont mean to be ragging on the Bears.  I dont like the Raiders.  I dont like the Chargers.  I dont really like anybody in the NFL.  IM just saying, that if the Raiders were in LA, I would buy season tix.  Why dont I buy season tix to the BEars when I was in Chicago?  Wel.........for all the reasons I Mentioned. (more money, the commute, the bad seats, etc).

K-Dawg (not his real name, but one of my best friends of all time, and will be known as this moniker for the rest of the blog), his brother went to U of Illinois when the Bears played in Champaign while they renovated Soldier Field.   I can't imagine how awesome this would be.  I need to talk to him about this.  From my Freshman dorm, if I leaned my head way out the window of the 13th floor, then I could see the field.  Would I watch games this way?  No, but I would walk 2 blocks to the tailgate area, grab some food and beer, then walk back to my dorm and watch the Bears game be played out 1/4 of a mile away from me.   This would all be on Sunday too, and would be played out on the day after I got to see Ron Turner go 2-10.  (Now, coincidentally, or as Mike Patrick would say 'ironically' a coach of Da Bears)

So imagine that NFL team X was playing on your college campus.  Your already paying $25 + to see your college team.   Wouldnt you pay $50+ to see pro team X?   Get this......Im 100% serious....... I have never been to a Bears game..     You think  Iwould pay $50/game to see the Bears in Champaign or the Raiders in LA?  Your damn right I would.

To compare.  I can buy LA Clippers season tickets for $400.  Is that a better deal?   Well.....kinda.    $400 / 41 games is about $10 a game.  Figure that the stadium for the Clippers is the same - 62% full (that is being really generous),   would it be worth 10 bucks even to go see Clippers vs Spurs and sit front row of the upper deck?  Maybe.  What about Clippers vs Grizzlies?  Def Not.

Now, USC is about 2 miles southwest of downtown, where the Staples Center is.  I would have to at least take a  bus on the days where I have school.  What about on Saturdays?  You think I would sacrifice Saturday Night to drive 30 mins to downtown to watch Clippers vs Kings>?????  Am I Bill Simmons?  (unfortunately, no).     I would look at the sheet of tickets, and say, "Fuck it, at the worst Ill watch it on tv".   I would never say that about Raiders Tickets.   

That is about the end of the discussion.  

----------------------------------------------------

Luckily for me, I bought the Criterion Collection DVD of Dazed and Confused.  Dude, you get everything with this compilation.  Please ask me about it for more in depth details.   I will stick with just the bare bones movie though.  Who do you think had the best day out of all the characters in the movie????

I would originally say Don Dawson.  I say this cause hes probably my favorite character.   Hes cool.  I use his "nah....but maybe Ill see you later on 33% of chicks I meet".   He is everywhere.  He is getting high, drinking, breaking mailboxes, has the hottest girlfriend, etc.

BUt here is the answer.

Its Mitch.

Hands down.

First of all, if you watch the behind the scenes....Wiley Wiggins (Mitch) is actually pretty cool.

But, more importantly, his character has not only grown on me, but its become the best.

He has such a great future ahead of him.  Imagine being 15.  You get your ass whooped.  True.  BUt then Randall Pink Floyd takes you home.  He says put some ice on your ass.  WOOODERSON PICKS YOU UP!>!>!>!!>!>!   You go to the Emporium.   You buy Beer for Melvin when your 15.  You smoke for the first time in your life.  You organize a paint pour on O'Bannion.  You go to the moontower.  You hook up with Julie, a Sophomore.  Then you get home, after your sister, and you just crash, not even listening to your mom.  You put on Slow Ride, and you say, "I Did it.   Fuck it, next four years, bring it on"  Its the future.  The future is uncertain for all characters........but Mitch is the only one who has the most time to waste, which is what it is all about.   

Obviously the best scene is when 'Fox on the RUn" is being played, and Dawson gets out of O'Bannions car, and walks up to Wooderson.   O'Bannion says, "Slater you fucking hippie gimmie drugs man", to which Slater says "get some from your mother man"....and then....

Welll....if you dont know what happens next, your not a true fan.   A true fan would know how that convo ends, and then what Wooderson, Pink, Mitch, and Dawson talk about outside of the Emporium...,   Did I say best scene of Dazed and Confused?  I meant best scene of all time....

--------------------------------

Another best scene of all time goes out to John Hughes.  Rest his soul.   There were three movies that I totally loved as a young person.  A young person as in, the first memories of your life.   That is, 8-10 years old.  They were Back to the Future, A New Hope, and Ferris Buellers Day Off.   

Side note, me and the CanMan (again not his name, but will be known as such), had this Spanish teacher 2 years in a row.  We got introuble pretty much every day.   but, one day, we had to translate these movies she brought in from Spanish into English.  She brought movies in in Spanish, and we had to translate them.   The movies she brought in were "Road Trip" and "FBDO" (Ferris).  She says "were gonna watch the end when Ferris is running home".  I yell out "I just lost the damn deal with the Vermont people".

She gives me this dirty ass look.  I thought I was doomed for a 3-6 detention.

Instead she cries, dejected "how do you know the lines?"

See, our project was to translate the lines of the movie.  Unfortunately for her, I knew them already.  I dont know if I should be bragging about this, but I am,  I ruined her project.  She wasnt upset that I blurted out vulgarities, she was upset I beat her.

Coincidentally.  In first semester of Physics Senior Year, I for whatever reason forgot what Sloan Peterson's name was (I have no idea why, I hate myself for this).  DUring a lab experiment, I yell out across the room, "Yo CanMan, what is Ferris BUellers GF's name in real life????"   He responds without hesitation "Mia Sara".

What was the teachers reaction?

The same as in Spanish.

Was she upset I disrupted class?  no.  Was she upset I yelled?  no.   Was she upset I corresponded with CanMan when I was prohibited from doing so?  no.   She says

"that movie came out before you were born....how do you know that?"

There must be something nostalgic amongst female high school teachers when it comes to FBDO.  They probably want Broderick.

I dont know what CanMan said to that, but I can say, its because we live and breathe.

BUT>>>>>>>>>>Getting back to where I was 20 mins ago, the best scene has to be when they drive downtown..  "Big city downtown" is the approximate lyrics to this.  The city is too cool.  If those of you who know why I like this scene know why, then you know, if you dont, then talk to me, its kinda confidential.  When I meet people out here, they ask me where Im from.  I say Chicago.   

It gets to be repetitive.  Dazed and Confused is my favorite movie.  Jordan is the game.  My accent is kinda like the SuperFans' from Saturday Night Live, and if you have every seen FBDO, or the Blues Brothers, that is Chicago.  I have no problem talking about this scene from FBDO though.  Speeding off in a Ferrari into downtown and parking in Italian Village for the day is fun.  

Its a great movie, a great scene, a cool dude, a hot chick, and a great writer/director who will be missed.

I had about 3 more thoughts, and I cant think of them.  THis may be my only totally, non college football post in this blog, so enjoy it.

Number 5

5.  Oklahoma Sooners

In my rough drafts, I had Oklahoma ranked everywhere from 3 to 7.  I couldnt put them in the top 2, I couldnt rank them behind LSU or Penn State, and I just ultimately decided to put them 5th.  Heres the truth about Oklahoma.  Are they a good team?  Yes, they are.  As much as I talk shit about Oklahoma, the fact of the matter is, they are good.  Are they at the same time overrated?  Yes.  They have been overrated every year of the past 8 years in fact.  The only year in our lifetime they weren't overrated was SGB's 2nd year, the year 2000 where they went undefeated and won the championship.  Can they beat 99% of teams on raw talent alone?  Yes.  But were not talking about 99% of the teams.  Now we are at the point where we are in the top 1% of teams (top 4% if you wanna get technical, but you get my drift).  They will NOT win against Florida, USC, or Texas by simply showing up the way they can beat Iowa State by simply showing up.  

I can not understand the love affair that the media has with Oklahoma.  I want to compare Oklahoma and Ohio State.  Now, Ohio State is also adored by the media, but last year, there was a huge out-lash against the Buckeyes, and for the whole Big10, because Ohio State lost two straight title games.  They didn't view it as an accomplishment that Ohio State made the title two years in a row, but rather as a negative thing that they were 0-2.  Whatever, that is fine, Florida and LSU were both better than Ohio State in those title games and deserved to win.  However......once Ohio State lost to USC last year, their season was OVER.  Even if they had beaten Penn State, who was undefeated at the time...they would have no chance of getting back into the title game.   Oklahoma, on the other hand, of course did have a second chance.  They lost to a 11-1 Texas team, somehow jumped them, and didn't have their season ruined by losing a game.  How come the second that Oklahoma lost to Texas, the media didnt write them off for the entire season?  

I won't argue that Ohio State played as tough of a schedule as Oklahoma did, because they didn't.  However, Ohio State was partially written off because of a head to head loss to another contender (USC).  Oklahoma was in the same boat.. they lost to Texas.  Why did it become even remotely possible that Oklahoma could jump Texas?

And beyond that, what really aggravates me, is that Oklahoma is 0-5 in their last 5 BCS games, yet no one says one thing about that, or punishes them for that record.  Ohio State is 3-3 in their last 6 BCS games, which includes a BCS championship.  Yet, there is this consensus that if Ohio State loses, they are punished even more so because they lost 2 title games in a row, but if Oklahoma loses, its okay, even though they have lost 5 BCS games in a row, and oh by the way, are now 0-3 in their last 3 title games -- one of them the biggest blow out of the decade, 55-19 to USC.

Since 2000, Oklahoma is 102-18.  They have one national title.  They have 5 Big12 championships.  They have 7 BCS bowl appearances, and are 2-5.  Overall, they are 1-3 in the title game.  

Since 2001 (since Tressel took over in 01), they are 85-29.  They have one national title.  They have 5 Big10 titles.  They have 6 BCS bowl appearances, and are 3-3.  Overall, they are 1-2 in the title game.

Looks pretty similar right?  So why the hell does Oklahoma get a pass over Ohio State?  Why is Oklahoma the media's darling?  Why can they do no wrong?  Why is Small Game Bob known as Big Game Bob?  These are the questions that keep me up at night.

And if you know me, you know that I dont like Ohio State either, and this is by no means an endorsement or campaign for them.  Its just the facts jack.

After I let some steam off of my chest, lets get back to how they look this year:

OFFENSE:

The offense will not be as productive in 2009 as it was in 08, but I guess there is nowhere to go but down.  Heisman winner Sam Bradford returns, and is only a Junior this year - something I think most people forget.  I wont rattle off all the stats of him as most of you know them.  

In the backfield, Oklahoma returns two 1,000 yard rushers from last year, which is very impressive.  Chris Brown rushed for 1220 yards, and DeMarco Murray rushed for 1002 yards.  Murray has suffered from a strained hamstring early in camp, and this is the sort of thing that can be a lingering injury.  That being said, he played most of 2008 through injuries.  THis is real, real solid rushing attack that doesn't get any respect.  When people talk about Oklahoma, they talk about Bradford, period.  Well, he wouldnt be as good if it weren't for his offensive line (which well talk about in a minute), and his team's ability to run the ball.  

In their loss to Texas, the two combined for 14 carries for 35 yards.  THat isnt going to get the job done.  Murray didnt play in the title game, but Brown rushed for 110 yards.  Im telling you, Oklahoma certainly played well enough to win that title game, but SGB was coaching.

Oklahoma loses their main receiver Juaquin Iglesias.  They lose their #3 receiver Manny Johnson.  Their big man is back - that is TE Jermaine Grisham.  The guy is an absolute beast - coming in at 6'6 258.  Along with that size, he caught 66 passes for 957 yards and 14 TDs.  He is being projected as a top 10 pick in the NFL draft next year.  He is like Antonio Gates, only bigger.  Its scary.

WR Ryan Broyles is the leading receiver out of the wide receivers, and figures to be the #1 guy.  He caught 46 passes for 687 yards last year, so he has some experience.  The receiving corps does not figure to be as talented as last year, and new faces will need to step in.

The offensive line is nearly all gone.  All that returns is Trent Williams.  He is good, and is projected to be a first round draft pick, but it can't be just him.  There figures to be a freshman and a sophomore starting on the line.  Now, you figure that if these guys are going to Oklahoma, that they arent scrubs, buttttt, again, were talking the top 1% of teams here.  Will they be good enough to protect Bradford from Texas' Defensive Line?  

Im just gonna go out on a limb right now and say NO.  THe offensive line for Oklahoma last year was incredible.  How do you have a heisman winner, and 2 1,000 yard rushers?  Well, Oklahoma allowed the 3rd fewest sacks in the nation last year (behind Air Force and Navy who never throw).  He got sacked on average less than once per game.  He was sacked three time vs Texas, and was hurried all game.  He also threw 2 of his 8 ints in this game.  So 25% of his sacks came in one game, and 25% of his INTs came in one game.   Did he still have a good game?  Hell yeah he did, he threw for nearly 400 yards and 5 INTs.  BUT, what happened in the Texas game?  They lost.

If the offensive line does not work at all, then Oklahoma could lose 3+ games.  If it works pretty well, then I still don't see them beating Texas, and even Okie State could provide trouble to them.  I don't see it working as well as last year, and overall, I don't see Oklahoma being as good as last year.  It seems impossible at this point.

DEFENSE:

That being said, I think the defense will improve.  I mean, it seems silly to be sitting here, and putting the blame of the Texas loss on the offensive line and how Bradford was sacked a few times, when the team gave up 45 points.  The defense finished 58th in the nation in scoring, and 99th in pass defense.  THey lose safeties Nic Harris and Lendy Holmes, but return everyone else.  The star of the defense is DT Gerald McCoy, who figures to be another 1st round draft pick.  MLB Ryan Reynolds went down with an injury last year, in the Texas game, and never fully recovered.  

The defense did start playing a little better near the end of the season.  Kinda.  They still allowed 41 points to Okie State, and limited the Gators to 24 in the title game, but couldn't come up with a big stop when they needed it.  FLorida isnt like all the other powderpuff teams in the Big12, in that they were gonna throw and put up 50 points on Oklahoma anyway.  When they got the ball in the 4th quarter, ran it down Oklahoma's throat, and drained all the clock....well, that was just as impressive as putting 50 points on a team.  

In a nutshell, expect the defense to be better, and the offense to be worse.  Can the defense improve enough to make up for any sort of setback the offense comes across?  I again say no.  I see them losing to Texas, and probably losing in a big upset somewhere along the line.  Even if the o-line plays at a good level, it can't play at the same level.  This will hurt the running game.  This will hurt the passing game - which is already hurt by their two top receivers leaving.  And, after all that, you have SGB at the helm.

FINAL:

9/5   BYU (at Cowboy Stadium)   ------- Win

9/12  Idaho State         -------      Win

9/19  Tulsa               -----      Win

10/3  @ Miami        ----    Win

10/10  Baylor         ---- Win

10/17  Texas (in Dallas) ---- Loss

10/24 @ Kansas     -----   Win

10/31  Kansas St     ----- Win

11/7   @ Nebraska     ---- Win

11/14  Texas A&M   ----   Win

11/21  @ Texas Tech  ---- Win

11/28  Okie State     ----  Win

11-1   (7-1)

Maybe 11-1 will be good enough to get them into the title game again, but I sure hope not.  Going to Kansas and Nebraska will not be an easy task at all.  The Bedlam game against the Cowboys is always fun, and the Miami game should be interesting as well.  Bank on another BCS game for SGB, maybe against Alabama?  and another loss.

  

Week 1 Spreads

The week 1 spreads are out!  Find them here:

http://www.thegreek.com/sports/home.asp

Im sure that Musburger has moved at least 15 of those 2-3 points already, and they are all subject to moving even more.  Lets look at a few of them, and how they compared to the early ones I got at the Golden Nugget a few weeks ago:

NC State -3.5  vs S. Carolina

I like NC State in this game.  Pretty simple.  NC State needs to get off to a good start this year, and S. Carolina figures to be down.  The first week of games is so hard to pick.  I think by week 7 it will be pretty clear that NC State is better than S. Carolina, but early on, it could be closer.  It could also be a bargain at 3.5 though.  I still feel confident in the Wolfpack.

Boise State -5.5 vs Oregon

Like I mentioned in the article on Boise State, they have not lost at home in a few years.  That is part of the reason we see such a high number here.  In general, the rule of thumb for home and away when it comes to spreads is that it is a 5 point swing.  So, for example, thegreek.com, where these spreads come from, basically have Boise as 0.5 points better than Oregon.  Since it is at Boise, they are -5.5.  If it were at Oregon, Oregon would be favored by 4.5.  Get it?  That is usually the case and just a quick way to think of it.  Remember that Boise beat Oregon last year in Eugene.  I keep flipping on this game, and will probably end up leaning towards Boise winning, but still, 5.5 is a lot of points.  

Navy +20 @ Ohio State

Akron +27 @ Penn State

W. Michigan +12.5 @ Michigan   (would it really be that shocking if the Broncos won at this point)???

I would probably take all 3 underdogs there if I had to.  IN reality, if I were betting with real money, I would pass on all of the games.

Notre Dame -14.5 vs Nevada

This number is a little lower than I saw at the Nugget - 17.  Seems a little more accurate too.  The game should be high scoring.  The o/u of 57.5 seems a little low --- theyre saying the game will be 35-21 ND, and I see it being a little more than that.  Nevada had the worst pass defense last year.  Nevada had one of the best rush attacks last year, and their ability to run the ball will be a huge determinant to whether or not they cover, and if it goes over.  Only one game of Nevada's last year didnt go over 57.5 combined points -- a week 2 loss to Texas Tech 19-35.  ND of course had some lower scoring games.  Id take Nevada +14.5.

Oklahoma State -5.5 vs UGA

This is more than what I posted as well.  Maybe everyone is pounding on the Cowboys right now.  If thats the case, UGA would be a nice pick week one.  Regardless, Ill take UGA +5.5 right now.

BYU +21 vs Oklahoma in Arlington

I dont know what to say about this game really.  It is really hard to bet against Oklahoma, even though I dont like them.  But 21 points?  Again, gun to my head, Ill take BYU plus the points, but would I be shocked if SGB runs up the score and the final is 63-21?  no.

Illinois -6.5 Mizzou in St Louis

Again, a higher number.  People must be thinking like I am, and realize this is the best opportunity Illinois has to beat Mizzou in a long time.  6.5 is a ton of points for a team that went 5-7 last year, and for a team that lost to Mizzou in back to back years.  I fully expect Illinois' offense to be in full gear, and put up plenty of points on Mizzou, just as they have the last two years (42 in 08, 34 in 07).  But the question is, will Illinois be able to stop Mizzou enough to win, let alone by 7?  Even though Mizzou's offense loses some weapons, Illinois' defense does not figure to be very formidable.  I will obviously be rooting for ILL here, but Mizzou +6.5 is the pick.

Baylor +2 @ Wake Forest

I told you how I like Baylor.  I like them in this game.  WF may have a tough time slowing down Baylor, as they replace manyof their defensive stars.

Minnesota -7 @ Syracuse

This spread is surprisingly low.  Syracuse, who has been the laughing stock of the laughing stock of conferences, goes against a returning bowl team, who figures to be improving by the day.....   I think this game is a trap.  After seeing this spread, I had to go research Syracuse's team.  They return 14 starters, but plan on starting a freshman QB.  If Minnesota wants to compete in the Big10 and advance to a New Years Day bowl, they damn well better beat Syracuse by more than 7.  Even still, theres something strange about that number.  I would stay away.

Maryland +21 @ California

well, maryland won this game last year, but was that because the game was played at 9 AM?   In all seriousness though, this is a pretty high spread.  I like Cal - I think they can be very formidable, but I think Maryland returns enough to cover 21 points.   

San Jose State +35 @ USC

This is a ridiculous spread.  San Jose State should cover 35.

C. Michigan +12.5 @ Arizona

This is a tough game for Arizona to open up a rebuilding year.  I wouldnt be shocked if the Chippewas pulled off the upset.

Rutgers -5.5 vs Cinci  (Monday Night)

Hard to believe that the defending champs of a league can return 7 players on offense, and be underdogs week 1 the next year.  But thats the case.  I took Rutgers to win the title and win this game, but 5.5 is a lot of points.  Hard not to take Cinci in this case.  So much so that Cinci could become a public underdog.  If thats the case, Rutgers becomes a very nice pick.

(You never want to bet on a public underdog.  Ever.)

Miami +4 @ FSU (Monday Night)

This line seems just about right.  IN the long run, Miami may end up being better than FSU.  If Miami wants to be in the competition for an ACC title, winning this game will be humungous.  Remember, their first four games are astonishingly hard.  Winning one would be a huge accomplishment.  Might as well make it the first one right?  FSU doesnt play an easy schedule either.  Again, using our 5 point to the home team logic, Vegas believes that Miami is a better than FSU, and would win if they played on a neutral field.  It will be interesting to see where the money falls on this one.  Right now, Ill take Miami plus the points. 

Which leaves us the big one.

Virginia Tech +4.5 Alabama (in ATL)

The spread is the same as it was at the Nugget.  I have already spent some time dissecting this game, and I dont know if I can make a pick right now.  Again, it seems like a trap, and it will be interesting to see how the money falls.  If it is overwhelmingly on Alabama, VT could be a good pick.  However, I think Alabama is a better team.  Also, as far as the spread goes, bettors could have a sour taste in their mouth regarding Alabama's last two games of the year.  If I had to pick today,  I would take Alabama, but not be overly confident.

Remember that all these games are my initial reactions.  Ill officially pick all these games, and more, once the season is closer.

Number 6

6. LSU Tigers

I know that this contradicts my earlier conference rankings post.  In it, I had LSU winning the SEC West, with Alabama taking 2nd.  Well, to be fair, that was my first article, and that was written 2 months ago.  So, I just want everyone to know that I do realize this, and I have simply changed my mind.  

I fully expect LSU to return to prominence this year.   Last year was a tough year for them as they struggled defensively, and never found a QB they were comfortable with.  Both problems should be fixed this year.  While their ass-whooping of Georgia Tech in the Peach Bowl was one of the more surprising performances of the bowl season, it was also the best.  I expect to see more of that in the 2009 season.

OFFENSE:

LSU finally has their QB....or do they?   QB Jordan Jefferson didnt start until the third to last game last year, and was very successful in those 3 games, despite going 1-2 overall.  He is a threat to run, but his arm leaves something to be desired.  That is where true Freshman QB Russell Shepard, the #3 ranked player in the nation by ESPN (#7 by Rivals).  Shepard is supposed to be a similar type player as Jefferson, and it will be interesting if he ever pushes for playing time.   LSU came upon hard times offensively last year, mainly because they never found a quarterback.  QB Ryan Perriloux figured to be the starter, but he was kicked off the team before the season started.  (Upon arriving in LSU, he guaranteed he would win 4 Heismans).  Andrew Hatch started the season, and was quickly replaced by Jarrett Lee.  Lee, (who they still have) turned it over way too many times.  Thus, Jefferson came in, and figures to be the starter to start the season.  He has only played 3 games.  So he has some experience over Shepard, but not much.  I don't think LSU wants to fall into the same pattern as last year by playing musical chairs with the QBs.  I think that if Shepard ends up replacing Jefferson, it will be for the reason that he is an exceptional player, and showing it in practice, more than Jefferson struggling, as was the case for replacements with LSU last year.

I want to go on the record and say that RB Charles Scott is my favorite player in college football.  He is 5'11", 230 lbs, and has some quickness.  He rushed for 1174 yards and 18 TDs last year.  He reminds me a little bit of T.J. Duckett at MSU.  He isn't quite as big as Duckett, but he is faster, and can be equally productive this season as Duckett was.  

Speaking of Duckett, remember this game?  I never heard of it being referred as "clockgate", but I like it:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_Michigan_vs._Michigan_State_football_game

RB Keiland Williams proved to be an effective backup last year.  He rushed for 417 yards on 83 attempts.  They have not used him very often for the passing or rushing game, but LSU also returns track superstar Trindon Holliday.  He will still be the Kick and Punt returner, but could figure to be used more in the running game to provide a foil to the size of Scott and Williams.

WR Brandon LaFell could have easily left for the NFL last year, but decided to return to college.  He led the SEC with 63 catches and 929 yards receiving last year.  That is pretty impressive considering the fact that LSU never really had a QB.  Other than LaFell, the Tigers need to find some weapons at receiver.  Their third leading WR from last year was their TE, Richard Dickson, who returns.  Wide Receivers Terrance Tolliver and Chris Mitchell return, and are experienced, but could ultimately be supplanted by the young, incoming freshman talent that LSU has.  WR Rueben Randle was ranked #2 in the nation overall by Rivals.com last year.  

LSU also figures to have a very strong offensive line.  LT Ciron Black definitely could have been a first round pick in the NFL draft last year, and barring something drastic, he figures to be a top 10 pick next year.  He, along with returning starters Lyle Hitt and Jor Barksdale, figure to be very strong, and extremely helpful to Scott, and to the maturation of Jefferson.  

The offense should be a run first offense.  They have a proven RB in Scott, and have solid backups.  They also have a strong offensive line.  WR Brandon LaFell is a very strong option at WR, but they will need a solid second option to prevent defenses from focusing solely on him.  Will receivers be able to emerge as Jefferson continues to develop, or will Jefferson be unable to develop because of a lack of receivers?  I think that a solid running game and offensive line solves all problems.  Eventually, LSU will have a ton of talent on the field when they are on offense.

DEFENSE:

LSU certainly has some holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball.  The defensive line alone loses Tyson Jackson and Ricky Jean-Francois.  DE Rahim Allen figures to be the next big thing in Baton Rouge.  He earned All SEC honors last year with 8 sacks, and wasn't even a starter.  The linebacking corps figures to be entirely seniors.  OLB Harry Coleman is a converted safety, and provides a ton of speed for his position.  

What hurt LSU last year was their pass defense.  They ranked 73rd in the nation in this category, which is very un-LSU like.  As bad as the offense was last year, they did score 38 points in a loss to Georgia, and 30 points in a loss to Arkansas.  LSU was down in a major way last year, and still could have been 10-3 if not for the bad pass defense (they would have lost to Florida, Ole Miss, either way, and they gave Alabama a good game - lost in OT).  They return 3/4 starters in the secondary, but it is unclear whether or not they will be the starters this year.  Patrick Patterson and Chad Jones are expected to step into the starting role, and could provide a nice boost that was missing last year for the Tigers.

As always, LSU will be loaded with talent.  I fully expect the RB, WR, Offensive Line, LB positions to be very good.  If they come up competent at the other positions, (QB, DL, Secondary), they will be back in the BCS.  Jefferson doesn't need to re-write the record books for the offense to be successful.  He needs to simply provide a threat to run, and not turn the ball over (he only threw 1 pick last year in his 3 starts).  Defensively, the linemen always seem to reload and be productive, and I feel that the new talent in the secondary will be good enough.  They figure to have a ton of speed on defense, something that always helps.  They are a year away from competing with Florida.  As compared to Alabama; it is a tough decision.  I like Alabama's defense better (better than just about anybody), but I think I actually like LSU's offense better.  Alabama will have a new QB, a new RB, and more replacements to make on the offensive line.  I guess in the end, I chose defense over offense.

Final Predictions:

9/5   @ Washington   ---- Win

9/12 Vanderbilt     -----  Win

9/19 UL - Lafayette ----- Win

9/26 @ Mississippi St. --- Win

10/3 @ Georgia       ----- Win

10/10 Florida         ----- Loss

10/24  Auburn        ---- Win

10/31  Tulane           ---- Win

11/7  @ Alabama    ---- Loss

11/14 Louisiana Tech  --- Win

11/21 @ Ole Miss     ---- Win

11/28 Arkansas        ----- Win

Of course, that is not an easy schedule at all.  Having to visit Athens, Oxford, and Tuscaloosa in one season is hard to ask of anyone.  Then, they also host Florida and their annual rival/good game Arkansas, to whom they have lost two in a row.  Losing 4 games again this year would not be surprising, but at this point in time, I have them ranked ahead of Georgia, Mississippi, and Arkansas, so I therefore took them to win those games.  The November 7th showdown in Tuscaloosa could be for the SEC West title.

10-2  (6-2)

Number 7

7.  Penn State Nittany Lions

Overall, Penn State was a really good football team last year.  They finished in the top 15 in total offense, scoring offense, total defense, and scoring defense.  They probably played their best game against Oregon State, and their worst game in the Rose Bowl.  If not for a misstep against Iowa (which well look at closer), they would have been in the national championship game.  They lose a lot of weapons on both sides of the ball this year, and as a result, they figure to take a step back.  However, they still are the favorites in the Big10, and could put together another run at the national title.

OFFENSE:

Its hard to believe that last year was QB Darryl Clark's first year.  He threw for 2592 yards, 19-6 TD-INT ratio, and rushed for 282 yards and 10 scores.  He is very efficient, and although they lose receivers, he figures to improve this year. 

PSU is known as a running team though, and they got their man.  RB Evan Royster rushed for 1236 yards and 12 touchdowns.  He has the potential to be one of the stronger running backs in the nation, if the offensive line holds up.

The two huge negatives to PSU is that they lose nearly all of their receivers, and nearly all of their linemen.  You cant really put into words how big it is to lose someone like Derrick Williams.  While his stats might not have been record breaking, he was a guy that they threw it to, ran it with, and returned kicks and punts.  He will be sorely missed.  They lose their leading receiver as well - Deon Butler, and third leading receiver, Jordan Norwood.  All three of them will be playing on Sundays this year.  That is a ridiculous amount of talent to have to replace.  Its hard to say whether or not any of the receivers they have will be any good, as they really have not seen much of the field.  

But the bigger concern is the loss of nearly all of their offensive line.  While the two linemen they return are good, especially Center Stefen Wisniewski, the other three linemen were 2008 All Big-Ten selections.  As we all know, offenses run on the strength of their linemen.  As well see later, PSU will have a while to find the linemen they need as they play a pretty easy schedule to begin to the season, but if they are unable to find some stable play, the running game, the passing game, and the whole offense will fail.

DEFENSE:

Its amazing that a defense can lose Aaron Maybin and Maurice Evans and still figure to be in pretty good shape.  They lose those two ends, but return their two defensive tackles: Ollie Ogbu and Jared Odrick.    The linebacking corps could be the best in the nation.  Two years ago, Sean Lee tallied 138 tackles, and won the Bednarik Award for the nations top linebacker.  Last year, he injured his knee early, and missed the entire season.  He will be back this year, and although he may be a little rusty, and might have lost a step, he figures to be a huge contributor.  In his absence last year, Navarro Bowman stepped up big time.  He is only a junior this year, and last year he recorded 106 tackles, 16.5 for a loss.    Both men could be competing for All-American honors.  The secondary might need some help, as it loses all four starters.  They will be young, and the linebackers will need to carry them to start the year.  

Overall, PSU loses 7 first team all Big10 players from last year.  That is a lot.  They return 3: Clark, Bowman, and Odrick.  Royster was 2nd team behind Shonn Greene and Javon Ringer, but figures to be the best back in the league this year.

Last year was really a missed opportunity for the Nittany Lions.  You can see that they were really talented on both sides of the ball, more so than every team they played, and they should have won every game.

Lets take a closer look at how they lost the game to Iowa.

PSU received the ball to begin, and had an initial rough start.  Clark was sacked and fumbled on the third play of the game, although PSU recovered at their own 1.  They punted, Iowa scored 3 plays later, and just like that, it was 7-0 Iowa.  PSU gets the ball, and runs the ball down Iowa's throat.  They run it down to the Iowa 2 yard line, passing for only 7 of the 76 yards on the drive.  Then, they stall.  Iowa holds them to a field goal.  Missed opportunity #1.

Iowa gets the ball, goes 3 and out.  Penn State gets the ball, runs it up their ass, again.  They go 75 yards, throwing the ball only twice for 10 yards.  This time, they finish off the drive.  They lead 10-7.  

Iowa gets the ball again, only runs 6 plays, and punts.  Penn State gets it at their 8 yard line, and they run it up their ass, again.  It is not until they cross mid-field that Clark connects on back to back passes to Williams and Butler for 16 and 13 yards.  They get 1st and 10 at Iowa's 14, get a holding penalty, and eventually have to settle for a field goal.  Missed Opportunity #2.  Its 13-7 PSU.  This drive ends with 1 minute left in the half, and Iowa does nothing.

Look back at what I just described to you.  I omitted nothing.  Penn State is kicking Iowa's ass.  This game could very easily be 21-0.  But instead, they only lead by 6.  Iowa has 55 total yards, 25 of which came on their first, short, drive.  Penn State has over 200.  This is what happened:

Forget for a moment about how the game started.  It was bad for PSU, no doubt, but they could live with that.  What championship teams do is finish off drives.  They could have easily had 21 points.  They have 13.  While 13 is better than 3, 7, 9, etc, it isnt as good as 14, 17, 21, etc.  Thats not brain surgery.  Good teams finish off drives.  So when PSU got a 1st and Goal from the 2, that would be an example of a drive that you need to get a TD out of.  PSU didnt even turn the ball over.  Their fumble on the first drive that set up a punt out of their own endzone could be considered like a half turnover.  So a team that has 4 times as many yards as the other with 0-0.5 turnovers should be winning by more than 6 points.  

Think back to the national championship game.  (Read the Texas vs Oklahoma post for details).  What did Oklahoma do?  They left points on the board.  Its kinda different, but essentially the same thing with PSU vs Iowa.  While Oklahoma opted to go for it a couple of times on 4th down, and scored 0 points instead of 6, PSU didn't punch the ball in, and scored 13 instead of 21, or any number in-between.  Those decisions by Small Game Bob cost Oklahoma the title, and the inability to finish off these drives cost PSU a shot at the title.  

2nd Half:

Iowa gets the ball.  On the 4th play, Ricky Stanzi throws an interception.  Penn State now has a first down on Iowas 30.  Again.  This is where teams that are champions finish.  When you have a foot on a throat, you step on it.  When you have a knife to the throat, you cut it.  You punch the ball in, and remove all doubt that you are in control.  They get to first and 10 from the 12, and cant move it anymore.  They settle for a field goal, and it is now 16-7.   Missed Opportunity #3.

Iowa gets the ball, and for the first time, they move the ball.  Surprisingly, they do it through the air.  They go 72 yards, only 9 on the ground.  On a 3rd and 13, Stanzi hooks up with Johnson-Koulianos for a 27 yard touchdown.  Its now 16-7 Penn State.  Iowa just got more yards in 5 minutes than they did in the first 35 minutes of the game.  They are also within 2, and have all the momentum.  Not to mention, do national championship teams give up touchdowns on 3rd and 13's?

PSU gets the ball, goes 3 and out.  Iowa gets the ball, and Stanzi fumbles on his own 28 yard line.   This time, PSU does finish.  4 runs, 28 yards, TD.  Simple.  Its 23-14 PSU.  It also starts the 4th quarter.

Iowa gets the ball and does nothing.  They punt the ball to the Penn State 11.  So situation.  Penn State is up 9.  They are on the road.  There is 13 minutes left in the game.  They have the ball on their own 11.  They have run for about 150 yards so far this game.  Iowa has about 150 yards total, half which came on one drive.  What do you do?

I run the ball 3 times.  The way I have been running, I expect to get a first down.  If I dont, I take off 2 minutes, I punt, and I play defense.  What does Penn State do?  They run it once, then throw it twice.  I simply do not understand this play call, and I say this is part #2 of why they lost (part #1 is the points they left on the board in the first half).  ANYBODY would be wise to run the ball here, let alone a team that is successful by running the ball.  Its not like PSU is Texas Tech and they don't know what running the ball means.  They ran the ball the whole frigging game, and now theyre gonna get cute and pass?  When I described a drive above, I included the fact that they started on their own 8, ran the ball, and didnt pass until they crossed mid-field.  Why not do the same thing?  Why were they scared to run the ball in their own territory (I Imagine this HAS to be the reason they threw, I can't think of any other).  They punt.

Iowa gets the ball, and off of a big 3rd down conversion, they get rolling, and score a TD.  Now its 23-21.  That was the worst case scenario.  Now, think back again how PSU decided to throw the ball twice.

Even if they ran it twice, like I said, they take off 2 minutes, probably pick up more than 0 yards (which is what they got by throwing the ball), and then punt.  If they then give up a touchdown, theyre still winning, and guess what??  They gave up a touchdown anyway!  And, now, whats worse, is there is more time left on the clock.  All of this will come back to bite Penn State in the ass.  

PSU gets the ball with 9 mins left.  They originally go 3 and out running the ball 3 plays in a row.  They get bailed out on a roughing the punter.  They advance the ball down to Iowa's 24.  They get called for a holding penalty and now face a 3rd and 24 from the Iowa 37.  There is 4 minutes left.  What do you do here?

Well, I probably run the ball.  I run the ball, and either take 40 seconds off the clock, or make Iowa use a time out.  If I get 10 yards rushing, I can attempt a field goal so that I lead by 5 instead of 2.  If I run and dont get any yards, I can punt.  When I punt, the worst case is that its a touchback and Iowa gets it at the 20, more likely I will pin them within the 15 yard line.  Taking 40 seconds off to get it below 4 mins, punting to the 10 yard line sounds pretty good right about now.

Well we know what they do do.  They opt to throw.  Clark throws blindly over the middle, Iowa picks it off, returns it to the 29.  Now they have more time, and 9 more yards than the worst case that would have happened if you ran the ball.  Nice job Paterno.  Make this part #3 of why they lost.  

Then we know what happens.  PSU gets a pass interference on 3rd and 15.  They let Iowa convert a 3rd and 10.  They let Iowa convert a 3rd and 6.  Iowa kicks a field goal as time expires to win.

How many different ways did Penn State lose that game?  Well we looked at them.  Remember, through all of this, they lost by 1 point.  

1) They scored 16 points in 4 red zone trips.

2) They opted to throw the ball twice instead of run it twice and punt, costing them close to a MINIMUM of 1:30 in game time.  If they pick up a first down running, they probably win at that point.  Is 1:30 a lot of time, considering Iowa scored with 1 second left?  I think so.

3) They threw the ball again on the 3rd and 24, and it was picked off.  Again, they could have ran and ran off 40 seconds.  Is 40 seconds a lot of time, considering Iowa scored with 1 second left?  I think so.

4) They didn't come up big on pass defense.  PLain and simple.  If you want to win a national championship, you dont let Iowa drive on you with 4 mins left in the game.  You dont let them throw on you when youre winning 16-7.  

I would like to give credit to Iowa, cause it looks like Penn State lost the game more than Iowa won it, and for the most part they did.  But Stanzi played his best game, they came up big on the 1st and Goal from the 2 on the defense, and won.  I don't lose any sleep over it - due to the fact that I hate both teams, but PSU should have won this game.

What it boils down to, is that I dont think PSU had a killer instinct in them.  They certainly didn't have it in this game.  Against Ohio State, the game kinda fell in their lap.  They played great on defense against OSU.  OSU played great on defense against PSU.  The game was up for grabs, and was leaning towards Ohio State when Pryor fumbled.  I will credit PSU by seizing that moment.  After recovering the fumble, they did go down the field and score, and that was the only time we really saw a glimpse of a killer instinct.  All other games were blowouts and they didn't need to exhibit a killer instinct.  The only other time I can think of an instance is when Illinois cut the game to 7, and Derrick Williams returned the ensuing kickoff for a TD (hard to believe with Ron Zook being such a special teams wizard --- he was special teams coach for Florida and the New Orleans Saints).   When push came to shove, PSU was 1-1 on the season, those games being Ohio State and Iowa.  

I dont know what this is a result of.  Is it Clark?  I would say no - I think Clark is a great player and a good leader.  Is it the fact that Joe Paterno sits his old ass in the booth instead of being on the sidelines?  Id say you're getting warmer.  I don't understand how this relationship works.  There needs to be some sort of a leader/coach that isnt a player on the sidelines to keep things in check, motivate, put things into perspective, etc.  As a player, sometimes you get caught up in the moment, and don't even realize all the circumstances that are going on.  When you watch on tv, you can say, thats easy, that was dumb, why did he do that..... but it is a lot different when you're playing for a title, on the road in front of 60,000 people.  As a player, you need that voice of reason sometimes to just say "heres whats going on, relax, were in good shape, we need to do this," etc.  

For example.  If PSU so decided to throw the ball on 3rd and 24, then a nice thing for a coach to say would be "take a sack if you have to, intentionally ground the ball if you have to, just whatever you do, dont throw the ball blindly over the middle and get it intercepted".  That would have been nice.  That might have saved the game for Penn State..  

Again, you assume at this point that the players realize all these things, but sometimes, they dont.  If you asked Clark prior to the game this very question, he would answer it right.  If you ask him after the game, he would answer it right.  But at that one moment, whatever happened happened.  Something kicked in where he felt the need to heave it over the middle and get it picked.  He needed that voice of reason.  That same voice of reason would have been helpful on all those drives where they left points on the board.

Final Predictions:

9/5   Akron     ----    Win

9/12 Syracuse ---- Win

9/19 Temple   ----  Win

9/26 Iowa       ---- Win

10/3  @Illinois ---- Win

10/10 E. Illinois ---- Win

10/17 Minnesota  --- Win

10/24 @ Michigan --- Win

10/31 @ Northwestern -- Win

11/7   Ohio State        ---- Win

11/14 Indiana         ---- Win

11/21 @ Michigan St.  --- Win

12-0  (8-0)

This schedule just sucks.   Look at the beginning of it.  It's pathetic, embarrassing, abhorrent, insert any other word that Gordon Ramsey uses to describe people's cooking.  But thats what it is.  They play 8 home games, 4 road games.  They get Ohio State at home.  I said that this year, they will need to replace the offensive line, the receivers, and the secondary.  Well, they get 3 bye weeks pretty much to start the year and find those players.  That is a luxury that few teams have.  Comparing them directly to Ohio State;   I like Penn State's Linebackers, QB, RB better.  I like OSU's lines better, as well as their secondary.  Their receivers are a wash, as neither team has a real proven receiver.  I know, it seems like sacrilegious behavior to take a team that has no proven offensive line, or defensive ends, over a team that is pretty solid on both lines, but I figure that Penn State could have it figured out by the time they need to have it figured out by.  If they do replace both lines effectively, they could run the table.  One game that I actually think they will have trouble with is at Illinois.  This will be their first test, it will be their first road game, and Illinois is a team that figures to be able to throw the ball this year.  They could put up big numbers through the air against PSU if the secondary isnt figured out by week 5.  Remember that Illinois beat Penn State as well the last time they played in Champaign. 

Heres another example though, of a team that I don't think will ultimately go undefeated, but probably will be favored in every single game.  Depending how the Illini play against Mizzou and Ohio State, Illinois could be favored at home vs PSU, PSU should be favored over OSU at home, unless the Buckeyes are really tearing it up, and the last game in East Lansing figures to be a low spread as well.  No matter how you slice it, Penn State figures to be the frontrunner for the Big10 title, and could threaten to run the table again.