I know that this contradicts my earlier conference rankings post. In it, I had LSU winning the SEC West, with Alabama taking 2nd. Well, to be fair, that was my first article, and that was written 2 months ago. So, I just want everyone to know that I do realize this, and I have simply changed my mind.
I fully expect LSU to return to prominence this year. Last year was a tough year for them as they struggled defensively, and never found a QB they were comfortable with. Both problems should be fixed this year. While their ass-whooping of Georgia Tech in the Peach Bowl was one of the more surprising performances of the bowl season, it was also the best. I expect to see more of that in the 2009 season.
OFFENSE:
LSU finally has their QB....or do they? QB Jordan Jefferson didnt start until the third to last game last year, and was very successful in those 3 games, despite going 1-2 overall. He is a threat to run, but his arm leaves something to be desired. That is where true Freshman QB Russell Shepard, the #3 ranked player in the nation by ESPN (#7 by Rivals). Shepard is supposed to be a similar type player as Jefferson, and it will be interesting if he ever pushes for playing time. LSU came upon hard times offensively last year, mainly because they never found a quarterback. QB Ryan Perriloux figured to be the starter, but he was kicked off the team before the season started. (Upon arriving in LSU, he guaranteed he would win 4 Heismans). Andrew Hatch started the season, and was quickly replaced by Jarrett Lee. Lee, (who they still have) turned it over way too many times. Thus, Jefferson came in, and figures to be the starter to start the season. He has only played 3 games. So he has some experience over Shepard, but not much. I don't think LSU wants to fall into the same pattern as last year by playing musical chairs with the QBs. I think that if Shepard ends up replacing Jefferson, it will be for the reason that he is an exceptional player, and showing it in practice, more than Jefferson struggling, as was the case for replacements with LSU last year.
I want to go on the record and say that RB Charles Scott is my favorite player in college football. He is 5'11", 230 lbs, and has some quickness. He rushed for 1174 yards and 18 TDs last year. He reminds me a little bit of T.J. Duckett at MSU. He isn't quite as big as Duckett, but he is faster, and can be equally productive this season as Duckett was.
Speaking of Duckett, remember this game? I never heard of it being referred as "clockgate", but I like it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_Michigan_vs._Michigan_State_football_game
RB Keiland Williams proved to be an effective backup last year. He rushed for 417 yards on 83 attempts. They have not used him very often for the passing or rushing game, but LSU also returns track superstar Trindon Holliday. He will still be the Kick and Punt returner, but could figure to be used more in the running game to provide a foil to the size of Scott and Williams.
WR Brandon LaFell could have easily left for the NFL last year, but decided to return to college. He led the SEC with 63 catches and 929 yards receiving last year. That is pretty impressive considering the fact that LSU never really had a QB. Other than LaFell, the Tigers need to find some weapons at receiver. Their third leading WR from last year was their TE, Richard Dickson, who returns. Wide Receivers Terrance Tolliver and Chris Mitchell return, and are experienced, but could ultimately be supplanted by the young, incoming freshman talent that LSU has. WR Rueben Randle was ranked #2 in the nation overall by Rivals.com last year.
LSU also figures to have a very strong offensive line. LT Ciron Black definitely could have been a first round pick in the NFL draft last year, and barring something drastic, he figures to be a top 10 pick next year. He, along with returning starters Lyle Hitt and Jor Barksdale, figure to be very strong, and extremely helpful to Scott, and to the maturation of Jefferson.
The offense should be a run first offense. They have a proven RB in Scott, and have solid backups. They also have a strong offensive line. WR Brandon LaFell is a very strong option at WR, but they will need a solid second option to prevent defenses from focusing solely on him. Will receivers be able to emerge as Jefferson continues to develop, or will Jefferson be unable to develop because of a lack of receivers? I think that a solid running game and offensive line solves all problems. Eventually, LSU will have a ton of talent on the field when they are on offense.
DEFENSE:
LSU certainly has some holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball. The defensive line alone loses Tyson Jackson and Ricky Jean-Francois. DE Rahim Allen figures to be the next big thing in Baton Rouge. He earned All SEC honors last year with 8 sacks, and wasn't even a starter. The linebacking corps figures to be entirely seniors. OLB Harry Coleman is a converted safety, and provides a ton of speed for his position.
What hurt LSU last year was their pass defense. They ranked 73rd in the nation in this category, which is very un-LSU like. As bad as the offense was last year, they did score 38 points in a loss to Georgia, and 30 points in a loss to Arkansas. LSU was down in a major way last year, and still could have been 10-3 if not for the bad pass defense (they would have lost to Florida, Ole Miss, either way, and they gave Alabama a good game - lost in OT). They return 3/4 starters in the secondary, but it is unclear whether or not they will be the starters this year. Patrick Patterson and Chad Jones are expected to step into the starting role, and could provide a nice boost that was missing last year for the Tigers.
As always, LSU will be loaded with talent. I fully expect the RB, WR, Offensive Line, LB positions to be very good. If they come up competent at the other positions, (QB, DL, Secondary), they will be back in the BCS. Jefferson doesn't need to re-write the record books for the offense to be successful. He needs to simply provide a threat to run, and not turn the ball over (he only threw 1 pick last year in his 3 starts). Defensively, the linemen always seem to reload and be productive, and I feel that the new talent in the secondary will be good enough. They figure to have a ton of speed on defense, something that always helps. They are a year away from competing with Florida. As compared to Alabama; it is a tough decision. I like Alabama's defense better (better than just about anybody), but I think I actually like LSU's offense better. Alabama will have a new QB, a new RB, and more replacements to make on the offensive line. I guess in the end, I chose defense over offense.
Final Predictions:
9/5 @ Washington ---- Win
9/12 Vanderbilt ----- Win
9/19 UL - Lafayette ----- Win
9/26 @ Mississippi St. --- Win
10/3 @ Georgia ----- Win
10/10 Florida ----- Loss
10/24 Auburn ---- Win
10/31 Tulane ---- Win
11/7 @ Alabama ---- Loss
11/14 Louisiana Tech --- Win
11/21 @ Ole Miss ---- Win
11/28 Arkansas ----- Win
Of course, that is not an easy schedule at all. Having to visit Athens, Oxford, and Tuscaloosa in one season is hard to ask of anyone. Then, they also host Florida and their annual rival/good game Arkansas, to whom they have lost two in a row. Losing 4 games again this year would not be surprising, but at this point in time, I have them ranked ahead of Georgia, Mississippi, and Arkansas, so I therefore took them to win those games. The November 7th showdown in Tuscaloosa could be for the SEC West title.
10-2 (6-2)
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