It didn't take Houston Nutt long did it? In one year, he implemented his offense (now called the Wild Rebel instead of Wild Hog), went 9-4, beat Florida, and won the Cotton Bowl. Whats next for year 2? The sky is the limit for the Rebels this year.
OFFENSE:
We all heard about the controversy regarding the Jevan Snead All-SEC vote. The truth is is that hes not as good as Tebow (nobody is), but he is good. He is only a Junior and is projected to be a top 10 NFL pick when he decides to come out. He threw for 2672 yards and a 26-13 TD-INT ratio last year. The INT total is too high, and is one of the reasons that the Rebels lost 4 games last year (more on this later). The only games he didnt throw a pick in were against Auburn, Louisiana-Monroe, and Memphis --- he threw 2 against Samford. With a full year of the offense under his belt, and another year of experience, he should produce over 3000 yards, and be closer to 30 TDs, and less than 10 INTs.
The running game was effective, as you would expect under Nutt. The team averaged 186.5 yards on the ground last year, good for 28th in the nation. It's an attack that comes at you from all angles. They return the 4 leading rushers from last year. RB Condra Eason rushed for 647 yards, Brandon Bolden ran for 542 yards, and Derrick Davis rushed for 244 yards. The most interesting player on the team is WR/RB Dexter McCluster. He led the team in rushing last year with 655 yards, but also caught 44 passes for 625 yards. He is the piece that makes the offense go, and is a matchup problem for defenses. He combined for 180 yards in the Cotton Bowl. They lose their best WR Mike Wallace, but they also return WR Shay Hodge, who caught 44 balls for 725 yards.
But perhaps the best part of the offense was LT Michael Oher. He of course is gone, taken in the first round of the draft. The offensive line is a concern for Ole Miss. The key to running the WildRebel is the same key to running the ball in any other situation. You need to block up front to be successful. Arkansas had McFadden and Jones, and Miami Dolphins have Williams and Brown, but they both also have/had a very good offensive line. Miami could line up in I-Formation and be just as successful. Now, this is not to say that the WildRebel doesn't cause any sort of confusion, it does. That being said, if the offensive line fails, so will the formation. The line only returns 2 starters, and features 2 sophomores. The #1 key to their season will be how this offensive line performs.
DEFENSE:
Ole Miss won their final 6 games. Going forwards, they allowed 21 to Arkansas, 7 to Auburn, 0 to Louisiana-Monroe, 13 to LSU, 0 to Mississippi State, and 34 to Texas Tech (which was TT's 2nd lowest total of the year.) Needless to say, the defense stepped up big. A big reason they beat Florida was the performance of their rush defense. The team allowed only 85 yards/game in the ground, 4th best in the nation. They only allowed 19 pts/game, which was good for 20th in the nation. They return 9 starters to this side of the ball. The main piece that theyre losing is DT Peria Jerry, who was taken by Atlanta 24th overall. The Rebels averaged 3 sacks a game, which was good for 4th in the nation, but a big part of that was Jerry, who had 7. The good news is that they get DE Greg Hardy back. Hardy only played in spots last year, but still tallied 8.5 sacks. He was just recently cleared to play, and it is uncertain how far away he is from being 100%, but he will be in a Rebel uniform.
The secondary had some trouble last year, but 3 starters are back. CB Marshay Greene won Defensive Player of the Cotton Bowl, and improved throughout the year. Ive heard good things about MLB Jonathan Cornell and OLB transfer from Auburn Patrick Trahan. The defense figures to be really good again this year despite losing Jerry.
Looking at Ole Miss' results from last year is a little confusing. They won their final 6 games and finished 9-4. They played a close game against Alabama but ultimately lost. They beat Florida. Yet their other three losses were Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina. All those teams were bowl teams last year, so they aren't the most embarrassing losses, but, those are the types of games you need to win if you want to be a BCS team. One could argue that the team improved throughout the year, and they just weren't as strong in the beginning of the season when these losses occurred, and that certainly is a possibility, but lets look at something else;
They lost 30-28 to Wake Forest. Ole Miss turned the ball over 3 times, WF once. Ole Miss scored to take a 28-27 lead with 61 seconds left. They kicked a touchback. They then let Riley Skinner go down the field on them and let WF kick a FG with 8 seconds left. They lost.
They lost 23-17 to Vanderbilt. The score was 17-14 Ole Miss after the First Quarter. That is, Ole Miss didn't score for the final three quarters. They turned the ball over SIX times, 4 picks from Snead in what was unquestionably the worst game of the year for him. Vanderbilt turned it over twice.
They lost 31-24 to South Carolina. Again, Ole Miss was winning 14-3 after the first quarter. Again, they had 3 turnovers, S. Carolina had 1. They let Chris Smelley throw for 327 yards against them. This was the week after they beat Florida. Florida combined for 325 yards the week before. Apparently Smelley > Florida.
They lost 24-20 to Alabama. This game they were just outmatched. They fell behind 24-3 and made a spirited comeback. They did turn the ball over 3 times to Alabama's 2. They did have the ball with 3 mins left, down 4, but they fell short.
So, over the course of the whole year, they had a -2 turnover margin, which 72nd in the nation. In the 4 losses, their turnover margin was -9. You cant win when you turn it over that often. They also had a 3rd and Goal from the 1 against Vanderbilt in which they came away with no points. There is just something intangible about Ole Miss that kept them from winning games (the tangible thing would be they turned the ball over too much, but there were more factors than that). I know it seems like a dumb statement since they did beat Florida by 1, stopping Tebow on a 4th down, but that really was the lone exception. Arkansas was the only other close game Ole Miss really played. They won 23-21, and they were winning 20-7 going into the 4th quarter of the game. I just dont think they have that indefinable quality that makes teams champions. I could be wrong, but something about them rubs me the wrong way.
The 2nd biggest win of the season came against TT in the Cotton Bowl. Ole Miss turned the ball over 3 times, including a first quarter INT for a TD for Snead. They did bounce back from an early 14-0 hole, I will credit them with that. Ole Miss ran for over 200 yards in this game and TT had no chance of stopping them.
Now, a kinda Ole Miss specific, but more of a general overall rant before the final schedule. Schedules can only take you so far. In general, the best team wins. There is a huge thing every time schedules come out, and I myself get caught up looking at them. I look where they play each other, which teams in the conference they dont play, what order do they play them in, etc. Over the course of a season, the best team usually ends up on top. You never really look at a team and say, theyre only there because of their schedule. Thats not to say you cant schedule your way to 6 wins or a bowl or something like that. Schedules could make the difference between 4th and 7th in a conference, but usually not the difference between 1st and 4th. So that being said, Ole Miss plays an easy schedule. They might win the SEC west, but if they do so, itll be because they're the best team, not because they don't play Florida and have an easier schedule. It sounds kinda dumb, but it should make sense. Ole Miss isn't better than Alabama just because they play in Oxford this year. If they are better, we will see that throughout the year.
Final:
9/6 @ Memphis -------- Win
9/19 SE Louisiana --------- Win
9/24 @ S. Carolina ---------- Win
10/3 @ Vanderbilt --------- Win
10/10 Alabama ---------- Loss
10/17 UAB --------- Win
10/24 Arkansas --------- Win
10/31 @ Auburn -------- Win
11/7 N. Arizona -------- Win
11/14 Tennessee --------- Win
11/21 LSU --------- Loss
11/28 @ Miss. St. --------- Win
The beginning of that schedule is really screwy. They play on a Sunday to start. Then they have a week off. Then they play on a Thursday quickly against S. Carolina. That game could be trouble for Ole Miss.
10-2 (6-2)
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