Since 2001, Boise State has failed to win 10 games just once; in 2005 they won 9. Now, critics will say that they dont play in a major conference, (they say that because theyre right), but nonetheless, Boise has been willing to go out and play big name teams. Last year, they traveled to Oregon, and won. Two years ago, they traveled to Washington, and lost. In their undefeated 2006 season, they hosted Oregon State, and traveled to Utah, obviously winning both. They opened their 2005 season with 2 tough road games, @ UGA, and @ Oregon State, losing both. In 2004, they hosted both Oregon State and BYU, winning both. In 2003 they traveled to Oregon State and lost, and in 2002 they traveled to Arkansas and lost. As you can see, they have increased their difficulty of non conference games, (although this year may be a step back), and have improved against those teams. The most interesting stat is that Boise State is only 3-4 in their bowl games since 2002. Now, they're 1-0 in the biggest bowl game they've ever played, but they have lost to TCU, E. Carolina, Louisville (in a great Liberty Bowl), and Boston College over the years. Those teams are all established as historically good football teams. You need to be consistently good to garner the acclaim that you're looking for. Like they say, you have to earn respect. Well, beating Oklahoma was a great first step, but these next 2-3 years I say will be crucial for Boise State for years to come.
Sidenote: I realize that Oklahoma hasnt won a big game in 5 years, and that they should therefore garner no respect based on what I've written above. Well guess what? I dont respect Oklahoma, so the story checks out.
OFFENSE:
QB Kellen Moore has the potential to be a better QB than his predecessor, Jared Zabransky. (Is it still your predecessor if he doesnt come immediately before you?) Moore is only a sophomore, but he lit it up as a Freshman. He threw for 3486 yards, and a 25-10 TD-INT ratio. On top of that, probably the best game of his was at Oregon, in only his third start. He didnt play that well against TCU's top defense in the Poinsettia Bowl, but no one really was. As is the case with all Freshmen QBs, they throw a lot of picks. Moore was no exception, but expect the number to drop this year.
They lose leading rusher Ian Johnson, but Johnson's activity was reduced last year, which gave the opportunity for other RBs to get some experience. Junior Jeremy Avery returns with 614 yards rushing, as does D.J. Harper, who rushed for 265 yards. They lost a big name early when Junior WR Jeremy Childs decided to leave early for the NFL. Last heard, he signed a free agent contract with San Diego Super Chargers. But, Austin Pettis returns, who caught 49 balls for 567 yards and 9 touchdowns. I have heard that both TEs are dangerous threats; Kyle Efaw and Tommy Gallarda.
The offensive line returns three starters, and is full of sophomores and juniors. As always, the offense will be dependent on their success.
DEFENSE:
The defense was the strength of the team last year, and figures to be so again this year. They allowed only 12.6 pts/game last year, 3rd best in the nation. CB Kyle Wilson has the chance to be a top 10 NFL draft pick if he plays like he did last year. They also return CB Brandyn Thompson and S Jeron Johnson, for 3/5 starters in the secondary (they run a 4-2-5). On the line, they return DE Ryan Winterswyk and DE Byron Hout, who are both very productive.
They have no returning linebackers, but a stable of young talent that will be competing for the only 2 spots. First of all I like the 4-2-5 defense, and when you have quality safeties like the Broncos do, you can give offenses a lot of different looks. As far as linebackers go, this will increase the competition in camp for playing time. They will figure out who the two best linebackers are and put them in there, but more than 2 will likely see playing time. They ranked 25th in turnover differential last year.
Heres the deal with Boise State. They have 2 seniors projected to start on their team. That is fullback Richie Brockel, and CB Kyle Wilson. A 10 win season again for Boise State would be a great success. Of course, they want more than that. They should be upset that they went 12-0 last year and had to go to the Poinsettia Bowl, and that they were run all over by TCU in the Bowl. I do want to say that that was a great matchup and a great move by the bowl committee getting those two teams to match up. But, Boise State always has their eyes on making the BCS. To get there, they probably need to go undefeated. Well, they host Oregon not just week 1, but day 1, Thursday Sept. 3rd. It will be the hardest game for Boise State. If they win, they should be in the top 10 going into week 2, and be favored in every single game for the rest of the year (theyre favored over Oregon as well).
Here is why the next few years can play a big role in the history of Boise State football. Until 2001, Boise State played in the Big West, which still exists but for basketball only. They are obviously now in the WAC, and although they have been very successful since joining the WAC, it is still a relatively short time period. Before the Oklahoma win, they were known as a good team, but of course were missing that big thing to put on their resume. Now they have it. They must continue to have success. If they win 10+ games this year, they can put themselves in a position that next year or two years that they can have a legitimate shot for the national title. It kinda goes back to what I was writing about with Utah.
Boise State only has 2 seniors on their team. I have them preseason #12. AthlonSports has them preseason #12. Phil Steele has them 12, Espn.com 14, etc, you get the idea. They are ranked very highly. If they have a successful season this year, and then return 20 starters next year, will they get that top 10 preseason ranking? If so, it fits one of the hypotheticals I outlined in my article entitled "hypotheticals". Im getting way ahead of myself, but you can see where Boise State will continue to be something to talk about. First they need to have a good year this year, then they would need to go undefeated next year with all the talent they have coming back to be considered for the national championship, but those are both very possible. We already know from previous articles that 2008 BYU was the highest ranked non-BCS school preseason. Boise St. has a chance to pass them this year. Next year, they figure to be ranked even higher.
They weren't the first non-BCS team to win a BCS game (Utah in 04), but their win was bigger than Utah's. They will set the precedent with preseason rankings, and really testing the national championship picture. Ill repeat it, if Utah were ranked 12th preseason last year, as Boise State is this year, and then they had the season they did, would they have gotten into the title game? They were not ranked at all preseason last year. It is a first hump, that is a major one, that these non-BCS teams need to get over. In the coming years, Boise State will already be over this hump before the season starts. It also opens up the possibilities of going 11-1, and making a BCS game - where as prior to now, all non-BCS teams that have gone to a BCS game have been undefeated.
But back to this year, again, their major test comes the first day of the season. They beat Oregon last year in Eugene, but I think that Boise St. had a little more talent last year. Their offense will be interesting to watch this year. While Moore has one more year of experience, they lose their leading rusher and receiver. The defense should be very good again, and I am really looking forward to the game against Oregon. Since 2002, guess how many times Boise State has lost at home. If you guessed zero, you would be right. Oregon may be more talented than Boise to begin the year, but it is tough to argue with that home field advantage. If Boise gets over the hump against Oregon, look for them to be in the BCS again this year. If they don't, still count on 10 wins, and great things to come in the near future.
Final
9/3 Oregon ----- Loss
9/12 Miami (OH) ---- Win
9/18 @ Fresno St. ---- Win
9/26 @ Bowling Green -- Win
10/3 UC Davis ----- Win
10/14 @ Tulsa ----- Win
10/24 @ Hawaii ---- Win
10/31 San Jose St. ---- Win
11/6 @ Louisiana Tech -- Win
11/14 Idaho ---- Win
11/20 @ Utah St. -- Win
11/27 Nevada ---- Win
12/5 New Mexico St. ---- Win
12-1 (8-0)
That isnt really the easiest schedule. First off, they play 13 games. Second, they go to Tulsa, which is another non-BCS team looking to compete with the big boys, and that game should be really good. That will probably end up being Boise's 2nd hardest game behind Oregon, and then their 3rd hardest will be against Nevada. PLaying 6 road games is not easy. They play 4/5 on the road in that stretch between September and October. That is tough for any team. Should be another entertaining season for the Broncos
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