Utah went 12-0 last year. They were not selected to play in the title game, and instead it was 12-1 Oklahoma and 12-1 Florida. What will it take to get a team like Utah into the title game under the current BCS rules? BYU was actually considered the favorite to go undefeated and be the next "BCS buster" (i hate myself more and more every time i use this term). But my point is, if you go back to the preseason ranks, BYU was #16, Utah was #29. Lets look at the other undefeated non-BCS teams from the past years...you know who they are.
2008 Utah: Preseason #29, At Time of Bowl #6, Final, #2
2007 Hawaii: Preseason #23, At Time of Bowl #12, Final #19
2006 Boise St: Preseason #31, At Time of Bowl #8, Final #5
2004 Utah: Preseason #20, At Time of Bowl #5, Final #5
So none of the teams were that highly regarded in the preseason. 2004 Utah was the highest of the 4 teams, and they had 0 shot that year, as 4 other teams went undefeated: (#1 USC, #2 OK, #3 Auburn, and #11 Boise State). Boise State was #30 preseason that year (what do you want from them, they only won 25 combined games the 2 years previously!!!! ) So they won 12 games in 2002, 13 games in 2003, and then went undefeated in 2004, and were only ranked 11th come bowl time! What more do you need to do to earn respect? Well, they then went out and beat Oklahoma in 2007 and things kinda changed. That is why I have the hypothetical.
What if a non-BCS team started preseason top 15, then went undefeated....would they make the top 2, or would they still be passed over for another BCS team? What about top 10? What about even top 5!?!
There is really no way to answer this, but getting back to the point I was trying to make earlier. BYU was preseason #16 last year, which is the highest preseason rank of a non-BCS team since 2002. What if they went undefeated last year? Would they have made it over Oklahoma (#2)? Your guess is as good as mine, but I would bet pretty confidently that they would not.
So I ask again, what if a team was ranked preseason #8? They then went undefeated, would they be considered over one one-loss team? What about two one-loss teams? WHAT ABOUT a 2-LOSS team? LSU won the title in 2007-08 with 2 losses! Now, that year was especially crazy, and the only 1 loss teams were #1 Ohio State, and #8 Kansas (who didnt even win their division). Oh, but wait. That was the year Hawaii went undefeated. Hawaii went undefeated and was ranked #11 going into the bowl, and LSU lost twice and finished #2. This could be because Hawaii was preseason #23...LSU was preseason #2. (That could be another hypothetical....would LSU have been chosen in that BCS game if they were say, #10 preseason? I again would bet on NO). So, this slighting of Hawaii could be because of preseason ranking, or could be because of what we all know....
Those teams will never get enough respect. Sometimes deservedly so, sometimes not. Unfortunately, we sometimes don't know until its too late. Boise State won 25 games in 2 years, and still wasn't ranked preseason the next year. They then went 11-0, and lost in the Liberty Bowl. Hawaii went 12-0, and still got very little respect. That was well-founded, as they got the shit knocked out of them by Georgia. Their schedule featured 0 ranked teams, and there were a few close calls. They then got beat up by Georgia, and everyone kinda breathed a sigh of relief, because otherwise it would have been back to back years that a non-BCS team beat a well known, prestigious, classic team from a BCS conference, went undefeated, and didn't get a shot at the title. Everyone exhaled, and went back to thinking that Boise State was against the norm, an apparition, and wouldn't happen again...
Then Utah happened. This team still didn't get enough respect from the voters. They finished 6th, (6th might as well be 86th, if its not 1 or 2, it doesnt mean shit), and they went and demolished Alabama. Then everyone watching that game that went and doubled down on Alabama -10 and was making jokes about Utah all through the Christmas Holiday watched on and looked like Butt-Head when he sees a shitty video on tv. The game was over in 10 mins. Alabama was 12-0, lost to Florida in the SEC championship in a close game, and came out and got demolished. So, would it be safe to say that everyone disrespected Utah?
Yes. But the point is again, we had Hawaii in our minds now. The point is, you put a team like Hawaii in the title game, they get their ass kicked, and everyone says, "you idiots, I told you THOSE teams couldnt compete". Unfortunately, that ruins the party for all the other teams. At the same time, lets say TCU went undefeated this year. It would be just as illogical to say: "TCU should be in the title game, cause Utah beat Alabama last year, and Boise State beat Oklahoma in 2007". Isnt that dumb? Its just as dumb as saying "they shouldnt be in the title game cause Hawaii lost to UGA in 2008". It shouldnt have anything to do with it, but it does. I think even if a non-BCS team were a preseason top 10, that they would not get invited to a title game even if there were two one loss teams.
But listen to this. Last year, all 6 of the BCS conferences had a team ranked in the preseason top 10. If any of those teams went undefeated, and there were less than or equal to one other undefeated team, that team would be in the national championship. Not that shocking. In addition to that, if Penn State beat Iowa last year and finished undefeated, they would be invited. Now, many people were starting to argue this before the ultimately lost. They were preseason #23, and played in a BCS conference. However, many felt the Big10 was weak based on the fact that Ohio State had lost the previous 2 national championship games (extremely idiotic logic). They began to argue whether or not Penn State would make it over teams like Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, USC, etc., and they never had to reach a conclusion. Believe me, Penn State would have made the championship.
But, this year, the Big East is going to face something interesting. They are in the BCS. They have been considered the weakest conference in the BCS' history. I have no Big East teams in my top 25 preseason rankings. Mark Schlabach of ESPN has 0 teams in the top 25. AthlonSports has 1 team, Cincinnati, ranked #18. So they win, they get to compete in the experiment. I was going to say, lets say in the official preseason AP poll. no Big East teams are ranked, but hell with it, say Cincinnati is ranked #18. Then they go undefeated. Say USC, Florida, Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas, Penn State, and every other team has 1 loss. Does Cincinnati make the national championship game? Again your guess is as good as mine.
Many consider the Mountain West to be stronger than the Big East. But, the Big East is in the BCS, and the Mountain West isnt. Are these teams protected? Its not guaranteed that a team if they go undefeated and there are 1 or less undefeated teams that they will make the championship is it? They can pick whoever they want. Not knowing all the particulars (like who each of the big name teams lost to, by how much, how well theyre playing come December, etc....) and if someone put a gun to my head and asked, does Cinci get in? I would say no. Do I think that would be right or just? No
I dont think Utah got a fair deal last year. I dont think Cinci would be getting a fair deal either if that happened. Now, sit down and face the idea that Cinci could go undefeated. It would not be the most shocking thing in the history of the world. They play @ Rutgers, @ Ore State, @ Miami (OH), @ S. Florida, @ Cuse, @ Pitt, and home against SE Mizzou St, Fresno St, Lville, Conn, W. Virginia, Illinois. Now I know I said a lot needs to go right to go undefeated, and thats true. This isnt the easy schedule, but it isnt the hardest either. There are no games that they stand very little chance (like when they played Oklahoma last year). They may be underdogs in as many as 3-4 games (@ S. Florida, @ Pitt, @ Ore State), but COULD win all 12 games. Now, how does that schedule compare to Florida, Oklahoma, Texas. How does it compare to 2008 Utah's?
Well, I predict that 0 of Cinci's opponents will be ranked preseason. Oregon State has a chance and will be close, and we already made the assumption that the other Big East teams wont be. W. Virginia might be close, S. Florida might be close, Pitt might be close, but Ill bet on the fact that none of them are. So they play in a conference with 0 pre season ranked teams. Then, non conference they play SE Mizzou St, @ Ore State, @ Miami OH, and Illinois. Thats a division II team, a bowl team, not a bowl team from the MAC, and not a bowl team from the Big10 respectively.
Look at Utah's schedule preseason last year. (I am only doing preseason for one reason. I know things can change, but we dont know how they will yet. For all we know, Illinois could be 9-1 when they play Cinci, be ranked in the top 10, and then a Cinci win would be enormous......we dont know). Anyway, Utah's preseason opponents included #16 preseason ranked BYU, Michigan received votes (hard to believe), and Oregon State received votes as well. So not the strongest pre-season schedule either, but theoretically, BYU was the best team of either schedule combined. (TCU received no votes preseason. IN all the infinite wisdom of the AP voters, not fucking one voted TCU in the top 25. TCU went 11-2 and finished 7th in the AP poll, yet not one voter had the foresight to put them in the top 25......so it shows you what all these rankings really mean.) Utah didnt make it, why should Cincinnati?
Thats me playing devils advocate though. My opinion is that if you go undefeated, you should have a shot at playing for the title. If Cinci goes undefeated this year, and theres 1 or less undefeated teams, Cinci should be in there. Utah should have been in there too. Would Cinci get invited? Its a good question.
So I leave with the question I came in with? What does it take for a non-BCS team to make the title game under the current BCS rules?
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