Conference Rankings

11. Sun Belt

So we've come to the end of our conference rankings section.  We can see growth already.  First off, from now on, such as when I do 1-25 rankings, Ill remember to go in reverse order, so that when people read it, its in descending order.  But forget about all that right now.  Halfway through writing conference rankings I thought "this is stupid, this is pointless, I just want to get to the Top 25."  Then as I sat down to write the Sun Belt preview I said "Im glad I did this.  I might not talk about any team from the Sun Belt for the rest of the year until whoever plays in the game, and I am glad I get to talk about them now."  Youre not gonna turn on ESPN tomorrow and see Mark May analyzing Arkansas State no matter what they do this year (also, shame on me for having this blog for about a month, and having 15 posts, and not one disparaging remark about May.....hes one of the top 5 reasons I wanted to start a blog).  The Sun Belt welcomes the 120th team to the nation this year, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.  Despite this conference being at the bottom of the barrel for the past years, the conference managed to produce two bowl teams last year, a sign of improvement.

Lets start with Western Kentucky.  I have never seen them play.  My source for statistics doesnt have them listed, as they were not division 1, FBS, whatever the hell last year.  I will let you know this:  They went 2-10 last year, with their two wins vs division 2 opponents, Eastern Kentucky and Murray State.  Most, not all, but most of their schedule featured Sun Belt opponents, to which they lost all their games.  Their first assignment as a Division 1 team? Go to Rocky Top.  (I can see it now, Tennessee blows em out, Lane Kiffen is heralded as the savior, and then Florida beats Tennessee by about 50).  This year, WKU plays 0 division 2 teams, but still count on them to get 1-2 wins.

NOrth Texas, despite having been around for years, and for one time having a reputable program, matched Western Kentucky's ineptness on the field.  They finished 1-11.  Their one win? You guessed it, versus Western Kentucky.  If youre keeping score, WKU and N. Texas combined to beat 0 Division I teams last year.   They werent very competitive either.  They allowed 77 points to Rice.  In fact, they allowed 47 pts/game, good for dead last in the nation.  Forty-Seven!!!  Their offense averaged 20 pts/game, so its not hard to figure out how they only won 1 game.  The QB, Riley Dodge, is the coaches son (coach is Todd).  I think we know how this story is gonna end.....expect 1-2 wins.

Louisiana Monroe finished 4-8, but were at least competitive at points.  They lost to Arkansas by 1, FAU by 1, and Middle Tennessee State by 3.  The offensive line returns four starters, but dual threat QB Kinsom Lancaster is gone.  Look for RB Frank Goodin to break 1000 yards this year (738 last year), as he gets the majority of carries as a junior, and while the new QB settles in.  The defense wasnt good last year, but they return 9 starters.  If they can improve, maybe they swing a couple of those close games to their favor.  Still, expect 3-5 wins.

Florida International became a big surprise last year, finishing 5-7.  Three of these losses were to Iowa, S. Florida, and Kansas (again, playing tough teams helps......maybe FIU woulda been bowl eligible if they played worse teams, but they wouldnt be as good, if that makes sense).  THey figure to improve this year.  QB Paul McCall returns; he passed for 2300 yards last year.  His favorite target, WR T.Y. Hilton, who tallied 1,000+ yards receiving.  The team averaged over 200 yards passing a game, and should figure to improve.  Watch for transfer TE Dudley LaPorte, coming in from Utah.  The defense got the job done last year, but they lose a lot of players.  If they can get the ball to the offense, FIU has a great chance to become bowl eligible.  Unfortunately, they travel to Florida, Alabama, Rutgers, and host Toledo.  Don't worry, theyre probably making 600,000 + to travel to Florida and Alabama,......each.  Count on 5-6 wins.

Middle Tennessee State just missed becoming bowl eligible last year, finishing 5-7.  Their offense figures to be formidable as well, returning 10 starters.  The offensive line only gave up 15 sacks last year.  Michael Carmichael returns on the defense, who can be a star, but the rest of the defense has holes.  They performed well, but need to replace many people.  They are very similar to FIU...... potentially good offense, with a defense that needs to step up.  Again, MTSU plays Clemson, Mississippi State, and Maryland non-conference.  Expect 5-6 wins.

Louisiana Lafayette finished 6-6, but didnt get invited to a bowl game.  This was unfortunate, since they went 5-2 in the conference and finished second.  The offense was the best in the conference, led by a rushing attack that finished 7th in the nation.  Unfortunately, they lose their QB, leading RB, and leading WR....never good.  The defense was not good last year, but returns many starters.  Will the roles be reversed this year?  I can tell you that if the offense takes a while to find their players, and the defense doesnt play well again, they wont win 6 games again.  They also play LSU and Nebraska non conference.  Count on 5-6 wins.

Arkansas State also went 6-6, and also was uninvited.  They too had a strong rushing attack, finishing 18th in the nation.  However, they return QB Corey Leonard, who passed for over 2,000 yards, and 1,000 yard rusher Reggie Arnold.  DE Alex Carrington returns on that side of the ball, he had 10.5 sacks last year.  They had the #1 rush defense in the conference, and the #2 pass defense in the conference.  Combine all these elements, and its surprising the Red Wolves (?)  didnt compete for the Sun Belt title last year.  Expect them to this year.  They play Nebraska and Iowa this year.  Expect 6-8 wins.  (Chalk up another team that changed their name from Indians to something dumb).

Florida Atlantic went bowling for the 2nd straight year last year.  The program is headed in the right direction under Howard Schnellenberger.  Theyll be happy to have QB Rusty Smith back, who threw for 3200 yds last year.  They had the #1 pass offense in the conference, but only turned that into 24 pts/game.  The defense loses 8 starters.  They lose all three linebackers.  Maybe the replacements will be better.  If not, look for another bowl, but not a title...expect 6-7 wins.

Troy finished 8-5 and won the Sun Belt.  They won because they had the #1 rush, pass, and scoring defense in the Sun Belt.  The team averaged over 3 sacks a game, good for third in the nation.  They return two beasts at linebacker:  Boris Lee and Bear Woods.  Both men tallied over 100 tackles last year.  The team also returns their leading QB, RB and WR.  THeyre the clear cut favorite in the Sun Belt.  

Final Predictions:  What is interesting is that these Sun Belt teams play some brutal non-conference schedules.....and I dont really blame them.  On one hand, it hurts their chances to getting to 6-7 wins to become bowl eligible, on the other hand, they get a ton of money to go to big name schools.  Since for most of them, there is nowhere to go but up, you might as well go all the way up and take your drubbing and collect your paycheck, (if you are North Texas, why would you go to Tulane and lose to them when you can go to Alabama, lose, and get more money?)  Why dont they play division 2 teams you ask?  Well I would imagine its because they in turn would have to offer them money to come visit....money they dont have.  If you were Little Sisters of the Poor, same thing....why go to La-Lafayette and lose when you can go to Ohio State, lose, and get more money.  Also, like I said, I think playing a tough non conference schedule helps theseteams in the long run, and none of them have a legitimate shot at going 12-0 and making the BCS anyway:

1. Troy

2. Arkansas State

3. FAU

4. Middle Tennessee

5. FIU

6. Louisiana Lafayette

7. Louisiana Monroe

8. North Texas

9. Western Kentucky