Since Jeff Tedford took over in 2002, the Golden Bears have not had a losing season. In the previous five years, the Bears won just 12 games combined. This turnaround started off as a minor miracle, and has led to Cal becoming a minor dynasty. The Bears are 5-1 in Bowl Games under Tedford (they werent invited to a bowl game in 2002 because of academic issues from a previous administration), and shared a conference title in 2006. They put their stamp on the program with a triple overtime win over USC in 2003. Still, there is one thing that is on every Bears' fans mind: no Rose Bowl since 1959.
OFFENSE:
RB Jahvid Best is the leading returner in rushing yards in the nation. He rushed for 1580 yards and 15 TDs, and posted an 8.1 yd/carry average. Ill ignore the fact that he rushed for 311 yards and 4 TDs against Washington, because he didnt even play against Arizona State due to injury. He is the real deal. The only concerning note is that he only rushed for 30 yards against USC, 25 yards against Maryland, and 93 against Oregon. The first two of those games the Bears lost. Another positive is that he was only a sophomore last year. I would not be surprised if he came closer to 2000 yards this year rushing. If he isn't the best RB in the nation, hes in the top 3.
The team never found out who their QB was last year, and now they have Kevin Riley by default (Nate Longshore graduated). As the old adage goes, if you have 2 QBs, you really have none. It was a flip a coin type system with the two last year. Sometimes they would both play in a game, sometimes it would be just Riley, sometimes it would be just Longshore. Riley only threw for 1300 yards last year, (in obvious limited duty), but did have a 14-6 TD-INT ratio. However, what is concerning is that he only completed 50.7% of his passes.
There is no DeSean Jackson on this team. The leading Bears receiver, Nyan Boateng, caught 29 balls for 439 yards. The best threat though is probably TE Cameron Morrah, who caught 27 balls, 8 for TDs. Its a chicken or the egg type problem that Cal has. Are the WRs struggling because they cant find a consistent QB, or can they not find a consistent QB because the WRs are below average? Ill take the easy way out and say that its never that clear cut, and its probably a mix of both. Its actually pretty remarkable that Best was as effective as he was last year without a threat from the passing game. Returning their three leading WRs and having a clear cut QB going into the Spring and Summer can only help their passing game. You dont expect the Bears to put up gaudy numbers through the air, but they dont have to with Best. All they have to do is not turn it over through the air, and establish a average balance to keep the defense on their toes. They only return two linemen, and the line is projected to be full of Sophomores and Juniors.
DEFENSE:
The defense played really well last year --- in the games that they won. In their four losses, they allowed: 35 points to Maryland, 42 to Arizona, 17 to USC, and 34 to Oregon State. All of those are high point totals, except for USC of course. And in each game, the offense played well enough to win. The highest point total that Cal allowed in a win was 31 against Michigan St, the first week. Their next highest was 20, against UCLA. That is pretty impressive. Their most impressive outing probably came against Oregon, when they won 26-16. This game is coming up in a few days on ESPNU and Ill watch it for you guys. The defense is led by CB Syd'Quan Thompson. In fact, they return all of their secondary, and all of their defensive line. The problem is they only return 1 of their 4 linebackers, (they run a 3-4), but they should be alright. Cal finished 14th in the nation in sacks last year. They return their man sack men - Defensive Ends Tyson Alualu and Cameron Jordan.
The team also finished 7th in the nation in turnover margin last year. They were on average +1.15 per game. Think about the team that I just described to you. They have the best RB in the nation. They finished top 15 in sacks and have their whole D-Line back. According to Athlon Sports, they have the 4th best secondary, and they finished 7th in the nation in turnover margin. On top of that, they have the 1st Team All American Punter - Bryan Anger. Does that sound like a team that can win some ball games? You bet your ass it does. The team will not be much different from last year; that is, their focus will be on running the ball, playing defense, not shooting themselves in the foot, and having sound special teams. Just the fundamentals, nothing fancy. There is just one huge roadblock in the way - USC. The 2003 win I mentioned earlier is the only time that Cal has beaten USC in the Tedford era. That doesnt mean they havent come close.... they are 1-6 against USC and the 6 losses are by a combined 65 points. Will this be the year that they get over the hump? Well, for starters, they have USC in Berkeley. Also, it has become a conception that USC will be down this year, and that this is the year to go get em. But beating USC, and winning the Pac10 overall means that they have to establish some sort of passing game. I think the pieces are there otherwise. Their defense will be good, they can run the ball, and they have good special teams. If they can establish any sort of passing game, they, along with Oregon and USC, will make the Pac-10 very fun, and very competitive this year.
Final Predictions:
9/5 Maryland ........... Win
9/12 E. Washington .... Win
9/19 @ Minnesota .... Win
9/26 @ Oregon ....... Loss
10/3 USC ....... Loss
10/17 @ UCLA ....... Win
10/24 Washington St. ... Win
10/31 @ Arizona St. ..... Win
11/7 Oregon State ..... Win
11/14 Arizona ..... Win
11/21 @ Stanford ..... Win
12/5 @ Washington .... Win
10 -2 (6-2)
There were some grumblings from Berekley when the times of some games were released. Among them, they discovered that they play Minnesota at 9:00 AM PST. Last year, they played Maryland at Noon EST/9:00 PST, and looked asleep during the first three quarters. They blame their loss on this fact. Whether or not its true, I can't really say. I know that playing in high school, it was a lot harder to play on a Saturday afternoon than on a Friday night, so maybe there is some sort of truth to it. The game should also be interesting because it will only be the second game in Minnesota's new stadium. If they worry too much about it being 9 AM back in Berkley, they will probably lose. It really shouldnt matter that much. They were particularly upset though because Arizona is playing in Iowa that same day, and their game is on at 230 CST / 1230 PST.
Other than that, Cal may know if theyre in the drivers seat or dead in the water by the time the MLB playoffs begin. As you can see, they play Oregon and USC back to back to start the Pac10 Season. No wins is no good, a split is possible, and a sweep would be phenomenal.
No comments:
Post a Comment