This selection will probably raise the most eyebrows. The rest of my top 25 contains the usual suspects, although it is jumbled up from the other publications you've been reading. However, many people dont have NC State on the map anywhere near the top 25. Youre probably saying "H, how could you have a team that finished 6-7, and last place in their division last year as a preseason top 25 team?" Well, there are obviously a few reasons, all of which Ill go into. I normally dont throw out dumb, irrelevant statistics like the one Im about to, and Im hesitant to do so, but here it is. The first two years at Boston College Tom O' Brien went 4-7 and 4-7. In the third year he went 8-4. The first two years at NC State, O'Brien has gone 5-7 and 6-7. Even more importantly, I like the way the Wolfpack finished last year. They started 2-6 before winning 4 straight games, and ultimately lost to Rutgers in the Papa Johns Bowl.
Offense:
The #1 reason I like the Wolfpack this year is QB Russell Wilson. Last year, he threw for 1,955 yards and 17 touchdowns. You're probably saying "whats so special about that?" Well, that is special for the following 4 reasons: 1) He only started 9 games, 2) He also rushed for 394 yards, 3) he threw only 1 interception all year (in his first game), 4) he was a freshman last year. All those are just huge signs that he will be someone very special in the years to come. A 17-1 TD-INT ratio as a freshman?!? That is outstanding. In six of his nine starts, he threw 2 or more TDs.
They need to find a more consistent ground attack to be really explosive on offense. Once Wilson became QB, the running game did improve (they averaged less than 100 yards on the ground the first half of the season, and over 150 yards a game in the 2nd half of the season.) Last year they featured a 1-2 punch at RB; Andre Brown and Jamelle Eugene. Brown is gone, and was the leading rusher of the two. Eugene has not shown the potential to be a breakaway, take it to the house threat. His longest rush of the year was 53 yards, and his 2nd longest was 18. He averaged 4.65 yd/carry. He did only get 95 carries last year, and itll be interesting to see how many carries he gets this year, and if that will affect his production. They will need another RB in addition to Eugene and the contribution they get from Wilson.
Leading Wide Receiver Owen Spencer returns, and he could be in store for a big season. He only caught 31 balls last year, but they went for 691 yards and 5 touchdowns. Get him the ball more! He had 1 catch against Wake Forest, 1 catch against E. Carolina, 2 catches against Clemson. He only caught more than 3 passes once last year, when he caught 5 against William & Mary. He has a nice counterpart in Jarvis Williams as well. He only caught 26 balls, and they went for 432 yards and 4 touchdowns. Now that they have a full season of experience under their belt working with Wilson, they will both increase their production this season.
The weak part of the offense last year was the line. They allowed over 2 sacks a game, good for 83rd in the nation. They return 3 starters though. Keep Wilson upright, and open a few holes for Eugene, and the offense will be very productive. This offense has the chance to be very well balanced and effective. Wilson is a threat to run, and Eugene can catch passes himself out of the backfield. They are efficient offense that doesnt put up huge amounts of yardage or points, but they dont turn the ball over, and they move the ball well enough to win.
Defense:
N.C. State returns five of their front seven. This includes LB Nate Irving. LB Ray Michael is also productive, and teams will have a very tough time running the ball against the Wolfpack. The secondary is another story though. Their pass defense finished 96th in the nation last year. This is something that needs to improve immediately. Their total defense finished 83rd in the nation, but they only allowed 26 pts/game, even with the bad pass defense. If they improve it, the defense will be very solid, and the team will be solid all around.
The bottom line is this. The Wolfpack can beat anybody in the ACC. They shouldnt be afraid of anyone. In fact, they finished 4-4 last year, and the winner of their division, BC, went 5-3, so its anyone's division again this year. The schedule is a little concerning, as they have to go to BC, FSU, and Va. Tech, but anything is possible. It is imperative that they get off to a good start. They play the first game of the year again this year, with a 7 PM ET Thursday night vs S. Carolina. I expect them to win that game. This team has not achieved a double digit win season since 2002. While that may be a little high for them this year, I expect them to be fully competitive in the ACC, and that they ultimately win their division. They probably aren't the most talented team in the league, but they play good, smart, sound football.
Final Predictions:
9/3 S. Carolina ---- Win
9/12 Murray State --- Win
9/19 Gardner-Webb ---- Win
9/26 Pittsburgh ---- Win
10/3 @ Wake Forest ---- Win
10/10 Duke --- Win
10/17 @ Boston College -- Win
10/31 @ Florida State --- Win
11/7 Maryland --- Win
11/14 Clemson --- Win
11/21 @ Va. Tech --- Loss
11/28 North Carolina --- Loss
10-2 (6-2)
On second look, it isnt the worst schedule ever. Theyll need to beat S. Carolina and Pitt. Also, they dont have to play Georgia Tech, and they do get UNC at home (who they beat last year), and Clemson at home. They also get S.Carolina and Pitt at home, and dont go on the road until October.
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