Picks for Week 1

So Ill try and give what I think my best bets are for this weeks games.  Week 1 is very difficult, but there is some value to be had, its just hard to find.  Think of all the movement there will be from now until December.

Last year, Alabama and Penn State were ranked in the 20s.  Utah wasn't ranked.

Wisconsin, W. Virginia, Clemson were ranked in the top 10.

Even when teams do well, it doesn't mean it starts right away.  Oregon State looked like absolute shit against Stanford the first Thursday of the year.  They went on to beat USC and win 9 games for the 2nd straight year.  Mississippi lost to Wake Forest, and went on to beat Florida and win the Cotton Bowl.  There is really no way of judging it right now, or even next week.  Teams that are "sleepers" usually pull one big upset in week 4-6, and then get hot, and win all of their remaining games or all of their games minus one.  

If I really had to make a prediction of who those teams would be, Id pick someone like Arkansas, Stanford, or Baylor.

So, that being said, that means nothing for week 1.  Baylor could be 7-5 when the season ends, but they could lose to Wake Forest by 30 on Saturday.  Its difficult to diagnose.

That being said, here is my best chance to diagnose.

Keep in mind, there are no public underdog.  In a previous post, I forewarned about the dangers of a public underdog.  What is that?  Well that means that although a team is an underdog, a majority of people are taking them WITH THE SPREAD.  It is not a good thing to be.  I cant run the numbers now, but if you want, go back to last year, see all the times a team was underdogged but received a majority of bets on them, and won.  I would say its less than 25%.  How do you know what team receives the most money?  Right here:

http://contests.covers.com/Handicapping/consensusPick/daily-consensus-picks.aspx?sport=2&date=9/5/2009&select_type=0

It really is remarkable.  Remember, you arent betting on Penn State to beat Akron.....you are betting on them to win by 27.  Even with that in mind, 80% of the world thinks Penn State will win by 4 touchdowns or more!  It is ridiculous.  So as you can see, the favorite with the least amount of confidence in the public is California -21, with 51% of the vote.  Actually, Boise State has a 50.44% vote, but they are listed on Thursdays games.  That is about as close as it can get to split action.  

Think about this fact.  If you take one thing from this article, take this:

Any team, any spread, this week, the favorite got more people to bet on them than the underdog.

That is really remarkable.  Texas -41.5?   They still got 75% of the world to bet on them!  There is just some natural tendency for people to bet on the favorite.  I guess it is because usually they are the better team.  What people forget is that you are then laying points.  Yeah, Texas is better than La-Monroe, but 42 points better?  But it is hard to believe that every favorite gets more action.

But Vegas likes this.  The more people that bet on a losing team, the more money they win.  In the long run, Vegas makes money, otherwise it wouldn't exist.  It takes an overwhelming amount of confidence to even break the 50% mark, and have an underdog receive more action than a favorite.  That is why, when it does happen, you should be weary.

It is also interesting that only 6 home teams are underdogs.  2 of them are Washington and Washington State.  Another is Syracuse.  You get the idea.  It is rather tough to be an underdog at home, but will be more abundant once conference play starts.

Looking at percentages is one of many things that I look at when betting games.  I cant reveal them all because a) it would take too long, b) my enemy CanMan reads this blog, and I am in a direct competition with him betting on games this year.  I cant reveal my secrets.  

If I were in Las Vegas this weekend, this is who I would bet on:

Louisiana Tech +13.5  @ Auburn

Miami +6.5 @ Florida State

Ohio +3.5 vs UConn

Memphis +17 vs Ole Miss

And thats about it.

The games I would seriously consider betting on, and if I were drunk/hot/won at something else I would take:

W. Michigan +13 @ Michigan

Nevada +14 @ Notre Dame

Washington +17.5 vs LSU

Syracuse +6.5 vs Minnesota   (Would have to be real drunk).

So I clearly like all underdogs.  In the big games/games in my pool, I took:

BYU +21.5 vs Oklahoma (@ Cowboys Stadium)

Georgia +5.5 @ Oklahoma State

Alabama -6.5 vs Virginia Tech (@ Georgia Dome)

Oregon +4.5 @ Boise State

So out of all those games, and even ones I wouldnt bet on, I only took one favorite.  But well see.  If I were a betting man, I would take the first four, then the next four would get some consideration, and then the final four I can enjoy without having money on it/the spread is just about right on and I cant for sure decide on either side.

Well see how it turns out.

Enjoy Week 1

Tomorrow is like Christmas Day.  Christmas Day if you wake up, go to class for 12 hours, drive home at midnight, get home, put a brickoven pizza in the oven, and watch DVRed games from 1 - 5 AM.  I love it.