Yea, I get upset when the preview says 1983 BYU-UCLA on ESPN Classic, and then I turn it on, and its the Little League World Series. True, I got a Musburger buzz. Within 25 seconds he made some joke about a kids age, then clarified that he was only joking and that the mother did provide a birth certificate. Amazing that this week hell be there, next week hell be in Atlanta, 2 weeks hell be in Columbus.
Ive become busy. I hope to keep writing on this blog once the season starts. In fact, I thought that the blog would become better once the season did start. Right now I cant really tell you anything more than what you can read in a magazine preview.
Speaking of which, one of the few people I like on ESPN.com is Bruce Feldman. He wrote a book 3 years ago about recruiting, and Ole Miss is specified in it. He wrote about how he thought they were building and would be good very soon (obviously was right). THen you log onto ESPN, and you have to read Pat Forde (who I dont like) write an article about Ole Miss and how HE thinks theyll be good. Like, thats some newsflash. Your colleague writes a book three years ago about a team, and then you write an article on the same subject, after the fact. Nice foresight Pat! What do you think Feldman thinks of this? Did scientists go up to Einstein years after his Theory of Relativity and say "hey, Al, I think I figured out this theory." Or "did you ever hear about this Albert?". What an ass, but I can't really blame him. Wouldn't ESPN just ask Feldman to write the article on Ole Miss?
So, going off what I said earlier, you should know that the final 4 teams in my countdown are USC, Alabama, Texas, and Florida, in that order. I don't really feel like writing an in-depth preview like I did with the other teams, but will mention some brief things about each team. If you don't know who is on each team, or who they are playing, or whatever at this point, then you probably shouldn't be reading my blog. Anyway:
4. USC
I ultimately gave the edge to Alabama over USC because the Tide return more of their defense. I think USC's offense could be just as good as the years they had Leinart-Bush-White. THe obvious question is at QB, and it is still unanswered. As of today, Aaron Corp returned to practice. He was the frontrunner, but Barkley will ultimately be a stud. I dont know who will start, but I'm sure he will have earned it - (more on this later). THey have an extraordinary amount of talent on the offensive side. RBs Stafon Johnson, Joe McKnight, and CJ Gable all return, and all split time last year. There was actually word of moving McKnight to cornerback. They also have WRs Damien Williams, Ronald Johnson, and according to AthlonSports, the best Offensive Line in the nation. If Sanchez returned, many people would be saying that it would be the best offense in the nation. Could it still be?
Well, I dont know....... how big of a role does the QB actually play in an offense. The first instinctive answer would be "a ton, are you kidding?" But think about the Patriots last year. Did Cassell have a good year? Were the Pats good? Yes to both, but not as good probably as Brady and not as good as Pats 2007. Pats 2007 to Pats 2008 is an unfair comparison, and so is Pats to Trojans, but you get the idea. Whoever ends up being the QB will be surrounded with tons of talent. Whenever you have a good line protecting you, a stable of backs to hand off to, and talented receivers to throw to, you'll be okay. THe problem is is that they travel to the Horseshoe on Sept. 12th. That will be an extremely difficult test. It'll be the second start, the first road start for whichever QB, and it should be interesting to see what USC comes up with. Last year's game was close for a while before the defense took over, something that needs to rebuilt this year.
The only other obvious flaw with USC is that they need to rebuild their defense. They lost however many players to the NFL draft in 08, and whoever they put in should be good, but how good how quickly? Can they replace Mauluga, Cushing, and Matthews? Prob not. Will they have to? Eventually, if they want to win more than a Pac-10 title. Despite being nationally significant every year since 01, the Trojans have not won the national title in five years. The past 4 years in which they didnt win the title has been a mix of problems. In 05 they lost to Texas, and really blew that game. In 06, they would have been in the title game if they didnt lose 13-9 to UCLA --- the offenses fault right? Well, they also lost 33-31 earlier that year to Oregon State, so that would indicate the defense was at fault. In 07, they lost to Stanford and Oregon (both Ill blame on the defense), and last year they got run all over by Oregon State (defenses fault). So oddly enough, the offense has, for the most part, done its part.
Safety Taylor Mays needs to be mentioned. I would take him #1 overall in the NFL draft. Hes 6'3" 230 lbs, and runs a 4.3 40. That is linebacker speed and CB speed, placed at safety. He doesn't make as many big plays as Tennessee safety Eric Berry, but is a bigger hitter. SS Josh Pinkard also returns.
So why so much faith in the defense and the quarterback position? Well, USC, and probably all of the top programs, have such competition amongst positions. DO you really think that Corp or Barkley will suck? I mean, odds are, more likely than not, theyll be good. That is based on nothing, I know, and if they suck, Ill be the first to admit it, but in the past 10 years, has USC shown any signs of recruiting and ultimately playing a bad player?
Think about Rudy. Yeah, the Notre Dame Rudy. We all love Rudy. I get chills every time I watch the part where the assistant coach gives the wanna-bes the speech of how none of them will ever dress, and will be used as tackling dummies and run the oppositions plays, and then they hit the ropes and the music plays. If you don't like Rudy, you are an idiot.
Anyway, think about what Rudy brought to the table. Intensity in practice. What happens? He tackles Vince Vaughn. Vaughn gets upset. Coach Parseghian yells at Vaughn, and says something along the lines of "if you had half the heart of Ruettiger's, then you would be All-American, instead, you just got demoted to third team offense".
There are two points to this story. One: Vaughn was expendable. ND, USC of this decade, and most major programs this decade have such an embarrassment of riches, that if the heralded recruit has an attitude problem, or if for any reason isnt living up to potential, they just sit him. You don't wanna work hard or aren't filling your potential, then we will put someone else in that is just as good as you.
Two, Ruettiger could never really move up. He was limited by his size. Despite having the biggest heart and fire in him, he was, as Fortune says, "five foot nothing, 100 and nothing". So, all of his shortcomings could not be made up for. At the top programs, such as USC, everyone is a freak athlete. Well, not everyone, but there is more competition. Im not saying that anyone on USC or any other program has Ruettiger's psyche, I'm just saying that the more competition, the better. Any single week that you are slacking, there is someone behind you that is just as big, just as physical, and if they are outworking you, they will play instead of you. Whoever ND's defensive ends were never were threatened by being overtaken by Rudy on shear size alone.
That is the case at USC though. Imagine that you have 30 all americans in high school. Say 30/100 of the best defensive players in the nation, and that could be being generous. Then, say 6 of those are safeties, and are going to sit behind Pinkard and Mays. So now, you have 24 people competing for 9 positions. Doesn't that sound like something that will produce good results? Not only that, but dont keep up the good work? Play like shit against San Jose State, etc? Then someone else will play. That is how you get to be better, the best, and fulfill your highest potential.
The same thing is in play at QB. BIll Simmons has talked about the spirit of competition many times. He talks about it in reference to Kobe, Lebron, etc, all being on the USA Olympic team. Well, this is different because the QBs are on the same team. BUT..................say Sanchez returned. He would kinda be the chosen one/projected to be the starter/the favorite, etc. He probably would not be pushed as much as the 2 QBs who are competing now. I would make a Tebow/McCoy/Bradford comparison here, but I think that those guys have enough fire under their ass to motivate themselves (Tebow especially). I mean, there is no way that anyone can compete and take the job from Tebow. So QB X would become lackadaisical, and accept his position. This isn't the case at USC for ANY position. The best player will play.
On the flip side, there are times in college, and more often the pros, where prima donna, cry baby player with tons of talent plays despite not being the best. You ever watch the Cubs or hear of Alfonso Soriano? Or, for a football case, Martez Wilson for Illinois...... He was rated top 20 by most places coming out of High School, top 5 some places. He played on Special Teams fresh year, OLB Soph year. He has been anything but spectacular. Is he really being pushed? By nature, he is the best athlete on Illinois' defense. He is not really facing a threat to lose his job. He can coast and still play. He will not achieve his full potential until he lights a fire under himself (I doubt he can), or someone else does.
Right now, picking every game, I take USC to win every game. Overall, they probably lose a couple, but still win the PAc-10. They travel to Columbus, South Bend, Eugene, and Berkeley. Ouch. They shouldn't lose at home, or any other games. 10-2 shoudl be the worst they go.
3. Alabama
As Musburger said, Alabama is going to use Julio Jones in tons of new, inventive ways. I really can't wait to see what they come up with. (Bama is up to -7 now that VT RB Evans is out....I wonder if Burger got that at -4.5...knowing his level of intelligence he probably did..................................he might have even been in on this "injury" of Evans.) Anyway, the combination of this freak athlete Jones (who is built like Owens), and Saban should come up with tons of great packages. They need to find a new QB, RB, and offensive line.
Bama is kinda like the opposite of USC, in that, they return almost all of their defense. Nose Tackle Terrance Cody is a future first round pick, LB Rolando McClain is a future first rounder, and CB Javier Arenas is, you guessed it, a future first rounder. The only piece they really lose or are going to miss is S Rashad Johnson. He led the team in INTs last year. I read somewhere that Cody, despite being 6'5" 356 Lbs, can dunk a Basketball. That is one of the most ridiculous things I have ever heard. The point is is that the defense is going to be awesome. If they can get past VT, they have a couple more games to get the offense figured out before they host Arkansas 9/26.
I would say that the under in the opener is a lock, but it could be the situation where the defense is TOO good. THat is, they pin a team inside the 1, get a punt and return it to the other teams 20. Now, under most conditions, neither team will be able to drive the field, but only 20 yards? That, or theres a sack-fumble, pick6, anything. There are instances where defenses were too good to make an under.
Most notable instance of this is the 2006 Orange Bowl between Penn State and Florida State. Not only their defenses being too good, the game went to 3Ots. It was one of the worst losses in gambling I ever had....including: Monday Night Football Colts vs Bucs (I wanna say this was 03?), where TB was up 21 with 4 mins left, then lost, aided by a leaping call, UCONN -2 vs Duke in 04 FF, where Duhon hit a halfcourt 3 at the buzzer to lose by 1, and Auburn -7 in the 05 Sugar Bowl where they were winning by 16 with like 7 mins left. They then let VT go right down the field, and then bomb it with 230 left for 80 yd TD and win 16-14. THat was especially painful because I just had my tonsils out that morning, and couldnt even move as I watched it.
I know you find it hard to imagine I was on the losing end of all these games, as some of them are historically bad, but I was. To get in a better mood, Ill talk about some of my "luckier" covers:
Arizona +2 in the Elite Eight vs Illinois. While they should have covered, as they were winning the whole game, I kinda bet on Arizona as a hedge. If they won, Id be pissed, but win $$$$. If they lost, it would have been worth whatever I bet for Illinois to make the FF. Somehow, after all the commotion that we all know about now, Illinois won by 1, which made it a win-win.
Hmmmmm, thats all I can remember. Ill need to think about this more. You really only remember your bad losses, never the good ones.
'Bama though, they go to Ole Miss and host LSU. Ill say they win both. They dont play UGA or Florida. Theyll probably go undefeated and then lose to Florida in the SEC title game, same as last year.
2. Texas
Texas is very balanced. They have McCoy, RB Cody Johnson, who should be a battering ram, Jordan Shipley, and 3 linemen returning. They also have 7 returning starters on defense, featuring DE Sergio Kindle. I can't believe I would ever like Texas, and I don't, but compared to Oklahoma, theyre the 85 Bears/96 BUlls/92 Blackhawks rolled into one. Well, not really, but theyre cooler than Oklahoma.
Ill take them to be the runners-up to.......
1. Florida
If you don't know who is on this team, then shame on you.
A quick note though. Think about how remarkable it is that they return 11 starters on defense. There isn't another team in the nation that returns 11 starters on either side of the ball. Thats 120 teams, 2 sides, 240 total. So out of 240, theres only 1 that returns 11 people. And it happens to be the national champions, and its a unit that finished 4th in scoring defense, and 9th in total defense. That is probably unprecedented. If Ohio returned 11 starters on offense, no one would raise an eyebrow, but when the champions return everyone on their already stout defense, well then, yeah, they should be #1. If that weren't enough, they return 6 starters on offense, including Tebow.
Their toughest games should be their rival UGA in Jacksonville, and a trip to Death Valley. They could lose either. In reality, I dont see them losing period. If they lost just one game, as they did last year, they would still probably win the SEC East, then the title, and be invited to the title game in Pasadena (just like last year). First, lets look at the SEC East. Compare them to UGA. Say they lost to UGA. Looking at UGAs schedule, we know that it is difficult. UGA could beat Florida, and still not win the SEC east (unlikely, but possible). I dont really see any way that Florida doesnt win the SEC east. At that point, it comes down to one game (unless you are Oklahoma, who could routinely lose their conf title game and make the championship, or somehow win some tiebreaker over teams you lost to and make the title game), the SEC title game. They figure to play Miss, Bama, or LSU. THey win that, which they should be favored in, and theyll advance to the championship game. What I am saying is, Florida is kinda already in a final four situation. They need to win the SEC title game, and the national championship to repeat. That is true of anyone of course, (again, other than OK), but they should advance to that "final four" situation rather easily.
Thats it.
Ill talk more about Oregon boise state next week, hopefully. NC State losing LB Nate Irving for the season really hurts, and knocks them out of my top 25. Ill put Oregon State in as their replacement. That is a tough game to pick now.
Like I said, Ill be busy.....but I should still find time to preview some games, write recaps of some games, blabber about funny things I see through the course of a Saturday/weekend, etc.
