http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/story.cfm/story/895090
I use this as a holy grail of everything. That is, its a pretty accurate ranking methodology, and it sets spreads. So for example, Florida has an index of 121.4, and Oklahoma 118.4. That means if they played in Pasadena for the tile right now, Florida should be a 3 point favorite (121.4-118.4). Generally, home field is worth 5 points. So if they played in Gainesville, Florida would be favored by 8, and if they played in Norman, Oklahoma would be favored by 2. THis is just a guideline. Sooooo....in our hypothetical title game again, in Pasadena, if Florida was less than a 3 point favorite, you should take them. If they were more, you should take Oklahoma. LVSC is just saying that on a neutral field, Florida is 3 points better than Oklahoma.
So lets try to apply this to Week 1 games.
Boise State is rated behind Oregon, and would be about a 3 point favorite. IN reality, they are a 5 point favorite. So its pretty close. Remember, that 5 point addition to a home field is just a benchmark. In Boise States case, it might actually be more, since they have not lost at home in a few years. It is about right on. When this happens, I would say that you might get some value in taking Oregon +5, but it doesnt mean that they are a lock to cover, will cover, or will even lose by less than 21...it just means there is a LITTLE value there.
Im imaging that these rankings take into account the injury to VT RB Darren Evans. Since his injury, the spread has gone up to Alabama -7. Again, Bama is about 5 points higher on the index rating, so very close (remember this game is on a neutral field, which is what the index is based on). So same thing, you might get some value in taking Virginia Tech, but inconclusive overall.
Ok State should be favored by 7, and they are favored 6. Again, right on. Cant wait to watch that game on DVR.
You could also look ahead and see that depending what happens, USC and OSU will be a pick em.
THe obvious limitation to this is that it only ranks 30 teams. However, sometimes you can get a grasp on a spread no matter what. E.G. Rutgers is ranked. Cinci isnt. Rutgers is AT LEAST 0.5 points better than Cinci (as the lowest team ranked is 0.5 below), and Rutgers is at home that week. So, they should be at least a 5.5 favorite. Rutgers could be a good pick Week 1.
This doesnt work when we want to measure the value in the Notre Dame Nevada game, as we have no idea where Nevada is ranked. All we can say is, ND should be at least favored by 9, but since they are favored by 14, we can't argue any which way.
Other than that, there always figures to be some interesting - different teams on the list. What jumps out at me of course is Illinois. I said earlier that they should give Penn State trouble this year. Well, if that game was played tomorrow, they would be favored over Penn State (its in Champaign this year). The #1 rule of betting is that you dont know anything that Vegas doesnt know...think about DeNiro in Casino. Dont try to figure out some angle that they havent thought of. So, even though I have seen every Illinois game since 2004, Im imagining that they have as well, or know more about them than I do. That being said, it is hard to believe that they have them ranked higher than UGA, Boise, or Virginia Tech.
LVSC does not think highly of Michigan State, which means that a ND -3.5 vs the Spartans price tag looks VERY attractive.
Thats all I see for right now. You can play around with future matchups and that.
No comments:
Post a Comment