Overall, Penn State was a really good football team last year. They finished in the top 15 in total offense, scoring offense, total defense, and scoring defense. They probably played their best game against Oregon State, and their worst game in the Rose Bowl. If not for a misstep against Iowa (which well look at closer), they would have been in the national championship game. They lose a lot of weapons on both sides of the ball this year, and as a result, they figure to take a step back. However, they still are the favorites in the Big10, and could put together another run at the national title.
OFFENSE:
Its hard to believe that last year was QB Darryl Clark's first year. He threw for 2592 yards, 19-6 TD-INT ratio, and rushed for 282 yards and 10 scores. He is very efficient, and although they lose receivers, he figures to improve this year.
PSU is known as a running team though, and they got their man. RB Evan Royster rushed for 1236 yards and 12 touchdowns. He has the potential to be one of the stronger running backs in the nation, if the offensive line holds up.
The two huge negatives to PSU is that they lose nearly all of their receivers, and nearly all of their linemen. You cant really put into words how big it is to lose someone like Derrick Williams. While his stats might not have been record breaking, he was a guy that they threw it to, ran it with, and returned kicks and punts. He will be sorely missed. They lose their leading receiver as well - Deon Butler, and third leading receiver, Jordan Norwood. All three of them will be playing on Sundays this year. That is a ridiculous amount of talent to have to replace. Its hard to say whether or not any of the receivers they have will be any good, as they really have not seen much of the field.
But the bigger concern is the loss of nearly all of their offensive line. While the two linemen they return are good, especially Center Stefen Wisniewski, the other three linemen were 2008 All Big-Ten selections. As we all know, offenses run on the strength of their linemen. As well see later, PSU will have a while to find the linemen they need as they play a pretty easy schedule to begin to the season, but if they are unable to find some stable play, the running game, the passing game, and the whole offense will fail.
DEFENSE:
Its amazing that a defense can lose Aaron Maybin and Maurice Evans and still figure to be in pretty good shape. They lose those two ends, but return their two defensive tackles: Ollie Ogbu and Jared Odrick. The linebacking corps could be the best in the nation. Two years ago, Sean Lee tallied 138 tackles, and won the Bednarik Award for the nations top linebacker. Last year, he injured his knee early, and missed the entire season. He will be back this year, and although he may be a little rusty, and might have lost a step, he figures to be a huge contributor. In his absence last year, Navarro Bowman stepped up big time. He is only a junior this year, and last year he recorded 106 tackles, 16.5 for a loss. Both men could be competing for All-American honors. The secondary might need some help, as it loses all four starters. They will be young, and the linebackers will need to carry them to start the year.
Overall, PSU loses 7 first team all Big10 players from last year. That is a lot. They return 3: Clark, Bowman, and Odrick. Royster was 2nd team behind Shonn Greene and Javon Ringer, but figures to be the best back in the league this year.
Last year was really a missed opportunity for the Nittany Lions. You can see that they were really talented on both sides of the ball, more so than every team they played, and they should have won every game.
Lets take a closer look at how they lost the game to Iowa.
PSU received the ball to begin, and had an initial rough start. Clark was sacked and fumbled on the third play of the game, although PSU recovered at their own 1. They punted, Iowa scored 3 plays later, and just like that, it was 7-0 Iowa. PSU gets the ball, and runs the ball down Iowa's throat. They run it down to the Iowa 2 yard line, passing for only 7 of the 76 yards on the drive. Then, they stall. Iowa holds them to a field goal. Missed opportunity #1.
Iowa gets the ball, goes 3 and out. Penn State gets the ball, runs it up their ass, again. They go 75 yards, throwing the ball only twice for 10 yards. This time, they finish off the drive. They lead 10-7.
Iowa gets the ball again, only runs 6 plays, and punts. Penn State gets it at their 8 yard line, and they run it up their ass, again. It is not until they cross mid-field that Clark connects on back to back passes to Williams and Butler for 16 and 13 yards. They get 1st and 10 at Iowa's 14, get a holding penalty, and eventually have to settle for a field goal. Missed Opportunity #2. Its 13-7 PSU. This drive ends with 1 minute left in the half, and Iowa does nothing.
Look back at what I just described to you. I omitted nothing. Penn State is kicking Iowa's ass. This game could very easily be 21-0. But instead, they only lead by 6. Iowa has 55 total yards, 25 of which came on their first, short, drive. Penn State has over 200. This is what happened:
Forget for a moment about how the game started. It was bad for PSU, no doubt, but they could live with that. What championship teams do is finish off drives. They could have easily had 21 points. They have 13. While 13 is better than 3, 7, 9, etc, it isnt as good as 14, 17, 21, etc. Thats not brain surgery. Good teams finish off drives. So when PSU got a 1st and Goal from the 2, that would be an example of a drive that you need to get a TD out of. PSU didnt even turn the ball over. Their fumble on the first drive that set up a punt out of their own endzone could be considered like a half turnover. So a team that has 4 times as many yards as the other with 0-0.5 turnovers should be winning by more than 6 points.
Think back to the national championship game. (Read the Texas vs Oklahoma post for details). What did Oklahoma do? They left points on the board. Its kinda different, but essentially the same thing with PSU vs Iowa. While Oklahoma opted to go for it a couple of times on 4th down, and scored 0 points instead of 6, PSU didn't punch the ball in, and scored 13 instead of 21, or any number in-between. Those decisions by Small Game Bob cost Oklahoma the title, and the inability to finish off these drives cost PSU a shot at the title.
2nd Half:
Iowa gets the ball. On the 4th play, Ricky Stanzi throws an interception. Penn State now has a first down on Iowas 30. Again. This is where teams that are champions finish. When you have a foot on a throat, you step on it. When you have a knife to the throat, you cut it. You punch the ball in, and remove all doubt that you are in control. They get to first and 10 from the 12, and cant move it anymore. They settle for a field goal, and it is now 16-7. Missed Opportunity #3.
Iowa gets the ball, and for the first time, they move the ball. Surprisingly, they do it through the air. They go 72 yards, only 9 on the ground. On a 3rd and 13, Stanzi hooks up with Johnson-Koulianos for a 27 yard touchdown. Its now 16-7 Penn State. Iowa just got more yards in 5 minutes than they did in the first 35 minutes of the game. They are also within 2, and have all the momentum. Not to mention, do national championship teams give up touchdowns on 3rd and 13's?
PSU gets the ball, goes 3 and out. Iowa gets the ball, and Stanzi fumbles on his own 28 yard line. This time, PSU does finish. 4 runs, 28 yards, TD. Simple. Its 23-14 PSU. It also starts the 4th quarter.
Iowa gets the ball and does nothing. They punt the ball to the Penn State 11. So situation. Penn State is up 9. They are on the road. There is 13 minutes left in the game. They have the ball on their own 11. They have run for about 150 yards so far this game. Iowa has about 150 yards total, half which came on one drive. What do you do?
I run the ball 3 times. The way I have been running, I expect to get a first down. If I dont, I take off 2 minutes, I punt, and I play defense. What does Penn State do? They run it once, then throw it twice. I simply do not understand this play call, and I say this is part #2 of why they lost (part #1 is the points they left on the board in the first half). ANYBODY would be wise to run the ball here, let alone a team that is successful by running the ball. Its not like PSU is Texas Tech and they don't know what running the ball means. They ran the ball the whole frigging game, and now theyre gonna get cute and pass? When I described a drive above, I included the fact that they started on their own 8, ran the ball, and didnt pass until they crossed mid-field. Why not do the same thing? Why were they scared to run the ball in their own territory (I Imagine this HAS to be the reason they threw, I can't think of any other). They punt.
Iowa gets the ball, and off of a big 3rd down conversion, they get rolling, and score a TD. Now its 23-21. That was the worst case scenario. Now, think back again how PSU decided to throw the ball twice.
Even if they ran it twice, like I said, they take off 2 minutes, probably pick up more than 0 yards (which is what they got by throwing the ball), and then punt. If they then give up a touchdown, theyre still winning, and guess what?? They gave up a touchdown anyway! And, now, whats worse, is there is more time left on the clock. All of this will come back to bite Penn State in the ass.
PSU gets the ball with 9 mins left. They originally go 3 and out running the ball 3 plays in a row. They get bailed out on a roughing the punter. They advance the ball down to Iowa's 24. They get called for a holding penalty and now face a 3rd and 24 from the Iowa 37. There is 4 minutes left. What do you do here?
Well, I probably run the ball. I run the ball, and either take 40 seconds off the clock, or make Iowa use a time out. If I get 10 yards rushing, I can attempt a field goal so that I lead by 5 instead of 2. If I run and dont get any yards, I can punt. When I punt, the worst case is that its a touchback and Iowa gets it at the 20, more likely I will pin them within the 15 yard line. Taking 40 seconds off to get it below 4 mins, punting to the 10 yard line sounds pretty good right about now.
Well we know what they do do. They opt to throw. Clark throws blindly over the middle, Iowa picks it off, returns it to the 29. Now they have more time, and 9 more yards than the worst case that would have happened if you ran the ball. Nice job Paterno. Make this part #3 of why they lost.
Then we know what happens. PSU gets a pass interference on 3rd and 15. They let Iowa convert a 3rd and 10. They let Iowa convert a 3rd and 6. Iowa kicks a field goal as time expires to win.
How many different ways did Penn State lose that game? Well we looked at them. Remember, through all of this, they lost by 1 point.
1) They scored 16 points in 4 red zone trips.
2) They opted to throw the ball twice instead of run it twice and punt, costing them close to a MINIMUM of 1:30 in game time. If they pick up a first down running, they probably win at that point. Is 1:30 a lot of time, considering Iowa scored with 1 second left? I think so.
3) They threw the ball again on the 3rd and 24, and it was picked off. Again, they could have ran and ran off 40 seconds. Is 40 seconds a lot of time, considering Iowa scored with 1 second left? I think so.
4) They didn't come up big on pass defense. PLain and simple. If you want to win a national championship, you dont let Iowa drive on you with 4 mins left in the game. You dont let them throw on you when youre winning 16-7.
I would like to give credit to Iowa, cause it looks like Penn State lost the game more than Iowa won it, and for the most part they did. But Stanzi played his best game, they came up big on the 1st and Goal from the 2 on the defense, and won. I don't lose any sleep over it - due to the fact that I hate both teams, but PSU should have won this game.
What it boils down to, is that I dont think PSU had a killer instinct in them. They certainly didn't have it in this game. Against Ohio State, the game kinda fell in their lap. They played great on defense against OSU. OSU played great on defense against PSU. The game was up for grabs, and was leaning towards Ohio State when Pryor fumbled. I will credit PSU by seizing that moment. After recovering the fumble, they did go down the field and score, and that was the only time we really saw a glimpse of a killer instinct. All other games were blowouts and they didn't need to exhibit a killer instinct. The only other time I can think of an instance is when Illinois cut the game to 7, and Derrick Williams returned the ensuing kickoff for a TD (hard to believe with Ron Zook being such a special teams wizard --- he was special teams coach for Florida and the New Orleans Saints). When push came to shove, PSU was 1-1 on the season, those games being Ohio State and Iowa.
I dont know what this is a result of. Is it Clark? I would say no - I think Clark is a great player and a good leader. Is it the fact that Joe Paterno sits his old ass in the booth instead of being on the sidelines? Id say you're getting warmer. I don't understand how this relationship works. There needs to be some sort of a leader/coach that isnt a player on the sidelines to keep things in check, motivate, put things into perspective, etc. As a player, sometimes you get caught up in the moment, and don't even realize all the circumstances that are going on. When you watch on tv, you can say, thats easy, that was dumb, why did he do that..... but it is a lot different when you're playing for a title, on the road in front of 60,000 people. As a player, you need that voice of reason sometimes to just say "heres whats going on, relax, were in good shape, we need to do this," etc.
For example. If PSU so decided to throw the ball on 3rd and 24, then a nice thing for a coach to say would be "take a sack if you have to, intentionally ground the ball if you have to, just whatever you do, dont throw the ball blindly over the middle and get it intercepted". That would have been nice. That might have saved the game for Penn State..
Again, you assume at this point that the players realize all these things, but sometimes, they dont. If you asked Clark prior to the game this very question, he would answer it right. If you ask him after the game, he would answer it right. But at that one moment, whatever happened happened. Something kicked in where he felt the need to heave it over the middle and get it picked. He needed that voice of reason. That same voice of reason would have been helpful on all those drives where they left points on the board.
Final Predictions:
9/5 Akron ---- Win
9/12 Syracuse ---- Win
9/19 Temple ---- Win
9/26 Iowa ---- Win
10/3 @Illinois ---- Win
10/10 E. Illinois ---- Win
10/17 Minnesota --- Win
10/24 @ Michigan --- Win
10/31 @ Northwestern -- Win
11/7 Ohio State ---- Win
11/14 Indiana ---- Win
11/21 @ Michigan St. --- Win
12-0 (8-0)
This schedule just sucks. Look at the beginning of it. It's pathetic, embarrassing, abhorrent, insert any other word that Gordon Ramsey uses to describe people's cooking. But thats what it is. They play 8 home games, 4 road games. They get Ohio State at home. I said that this year, they will need to replace the offensive line, the receivers, and the secondary. Well, they get 3 bye weeks pretty much to start the year and find those players. That is a luxury that few teams have. Comparing them directly to Ohio State; I like Penn State's Linebackers, QB, RB better. I like OSU's lines better, as well as their secondary. Their receivers are a wash, as neither team has a real proven receiver. I know, it seems like sacrilegious behavior to take a team that has no proven offensive line, or defensive ends, over a team that is pretty solid on both lines, but I figure that Penn State could have it figured out by the time they need to have it figured out by. If they do replace both lines effectively, they could run the table. One game that I actually think they will have trouble with is at Illinois. This will be their first test, it will be their first road game, and Illinois is a team that figures to be able to throw the ball this year. They could put up big numbers through the air against PSU if the secondary isnt figured out by week 5. Remember that Illinois beat Penn State as well the last time they played in Champaign.
Heres another example though, of a team that I don't think will ultimately go undefeated, but probably will be favored in every single game. Depending how the Illini play against Mizzou and Ohio State, Illinois could be favored at home vs PSU, PSU should be favored over OSU at home, unless the Buckeyes are really tearing it up, and the last game in East Lansing figures to be a low spread as well. No matter how you slice it, Penn State figures to be the frontrunner for the Big10 title, and could threaten to run the table again.
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