Feels good to be back writing previews. Truth be told, I have #8 and #7 locked in, and #2 and #1 locked in, but 3-4-5-6 are a crapshoot. You can permute all the teams involved, put the 24 permutations in a hat, pick one out for me, and I could probably make a case for it -- (permutations, probability, combinations are the only thing I remember from undergrad - perhaps worth 50k+ , perhaps not).
Anyway, Ohio State is a pretty solid #8. The Buckeyes have won 43 games the last 4 years, but their obvious shortcoming has been their performance in the BCS, going 1-3 the last 4 years. But you read that right, they have been in the BCS each of the last 4 years - the title game twice, and have been playing just the big name competition (Texas in 09, LSU in 08, Florida in 07, ND in 06). Interestingly, they couldn't be stopped against ND, and a speed difference was evident (also evident was that Musburger had the over in the game, with the now famous lines 'were entering the money quarter' , 'get your adding machines out', and 'that brings the score to 37' when the score was 20-17 or something), but in turn OSU was out-sped by Florida and LSU big time. Their game against Texas last year was probably the best game of the year. Only 3 schools have been in 7 BCS games - Ohio State, USC, and Oklahoma. USC is 6-1, OSU is 4-3, and Oklahoma is 2-5 (Small Game Bob). Oddly enough, despite being in 7 BCS games since the creation of the BCS 11 years ago, OSU has NOT been to a Rose Bowl. Their last Rose Bowl came in 96, with a win over the Sun Devils.
OFFENSE:
I am not about to drink the Terrelle Pryor kool-aid. I understand the hype surrounding him, but he is far away from being dominant. The most obvious comparison is Pryor to Vince Young. I believe that at 6'6", Pryor is even bigger than Young. At the start of Young's career, he was a raw passer much like Pryor, but by the time he won a championship, he was a very good passer. Young red-shirted originally, while Pryor played as a true freshman. Young then took over halfway through his red-shirt freshman year, started all of his RS-Soph year, going 11-1 and beating Michigan in the Rose Bowl, and then won the title his RS-Junior year. Well see how Pryor ends up comparing. He took over mostly full time halfway through his first year, but again, in his case it was as a true freshman. Pryor's best game passing came against Penn State, which ironically, was the game where he made his biggest blunder: a fumble when OSU was in control of the game.
The offense also loses Beanie Wells to the NFL. Even after being injured against Youngstown State in the opening game and missing 3 games, Wells rushed for 1197 yards and 8 TDs. Daniel "Boom" Herron is the heir apparent --- a Sophomore that rushed 439 yards in limited play behind Wells and Pryor. The offensive line is set to have a big year. THey return 3 starters, led by Justin Boren. Behind them, Pryor and Boom will have a big year running the ball.
What doesn't help the progression of Pryor is the departure of OSU's two leading WRs - Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline. By the nature of the offense, the receivers didn't put up outstanding numbers, yet they were pretty solid. The leading WR now is Dane Sanzenbacher, who only caught 21 passes last year. Not seeing Pryor as a big threat to throw the ball last year, combined with no real playmakers at WR is concerning for the Buckeyes. They finished 105th in the nation in passing last year, and unless something drastic changes, their passing efficiency could decrease this year.
DEFENSE:
The defense loses its three big playmakers, but they still have a solid returning corps. They lost James Laurinitis, Malcolm Jenkins, and Marcus Freeman. The obvious need is at linebacker. The linebackers, along with the rest of the defense, is filled with juniors and seniors, and despite having played behind other top talent, the whole defense should be experienced. Their defensive line is very strong - DE Thaddeus Gibson and DE Cameron Heyward can be a force this season. Despite losing Jenkins, the secondary should be strong; it returns 3/4 starters. Chimidi Chekwa, Kurt Coleman, and Anderson Russell should all be strong players, and could help in run support in what is a mostly run-happy league. Kurt Coleman can be the next Mike Doss.
I don't see OSU competing for a national title until they establish a strong offense. Despite this, they could be in the contention for a Big10 title. Like I said in regards to UGA, teams are built from the inside-out. Both of OSU's lines appear to be very formidable. While the Buckeyes may lack big, star playmakers on offense, the offensive line can compensate. They will open holes for Boom, give Pryor time to develop, and probably increase Pryor's production both running and passing. While the defense may not be as good as it has the past few years, it still will be above average.
Final:
9/5: Navy ----- Win
9/12: USC ------- Loss
9/19: Toledo (CLE) --- Win
9/26: Illinois ------ Win
10/3: @ Indiana ---- Win
10/10: Wisconsin --- Win
10/17: @ Purdue --- Win
10/24: Minnesota -- Win
10/31: New Mexico St. - Win
11/7: @ Penn State ---- Loss
11/14: Iowa ----- Win
11/21: @ Michigan ---- Win
I have them losing the same 2 games that they lost last year. The USC game figures to be the biggest non-conference game of the year, and really will be a coin-flip. I see USC being a little further along and having a few more weapons than Ohio State come 9/12, and I give them the benefit based on their win last year. But overall, both teams lose integral parts of their defense, and USC returns more on their offense than Ohio State does. I like Penn State better than OSU as well, as we will see shortly. Not having to leave Ohio for the month of September must be nice ( I dont know what the deal with the Cleveland match-up with Toledo is). Overall, the Buckeyes play 7 home games, 4 road games, 1 neutral. They trade MSU and Northwestern for Iowa and Indiana this year - a good trade. If they beat USC early in the year, the big roadblock will be a visit to Happy Valley. They will probably be undefeated come that date if they beat USC.
10-2 (7-1).
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