http://www.thegreek.com/sports/home.asp
Im sure that Musburger has moved at least 15 of those 2-3 points already, and they are all subject to moving even more. Lets look at a few of them, and how they compared to the early ones I got at the Golden Nugget a few weeks ago:
NC State -3.5 vs S. Carolina
I like NC State in this game. Pretty simple. NC State needs to get off to a good start this year, and S. Carolina figures to be down. The first week of games is so hard to pick. I think by week 7 it will be pretty clear that NC State is better than S. Carolina, but early on, it could be closer. It could also be a bargain at 3.5 though. I still feel confident in the Wolfpack.
Boise State -5.5 vs Oregon
Like I mentioned in the article on Boise State, they have not lost at home in a few years. That is part of the reason we see such a high number here. In general, the rule of thumb for home and away when it comes to spreads is that it is a 5 point swing. So, for example, thegreek.com, where these spreads come from, basically have Boise as 0.5 points better than Oregon. Since it is at Boise, they are -5.5. If it were at Oregon, Oregon would be favored by 4.5. Get it? That is usually the case and just a quick way to think of it. Remember that Boise beat Oregon last year in Eugene. I keep flipping on this game, and will probably end up leaning towards Boise winning, but still, 5.5 is a lot of points.
Navy +20 @ Ohio State
Akron +27 @ Penn State
W. Michigan +12.5 @ Michigan (would it really be that shocking if the Broncos won at this point)???
I would probably take all 3 underdogs there if I had to. IN reality, if I were betting with real money, I would pass on all of the games.
Notre Dame -14.5 vs Nevada
This number is a little lower than I saw at the Nugget - 17. Seems a little more accurate too. The game should be high scoring. The o/u of 57.5 seems a little low --- theyre saying the game will be 35-21 ND, and I see it being a little more than that. Nevada had the worst pass defense last year. Nevada had one of the best rush attacks last year, and their ability to run the ball will be a huge determinant to whether or not they cover, and if it goes over. Only one game of Nevada's last year didnt go over 57.5 combined points -- a week 2 loss to Texas Tech 19-35. ND of course had some lower scoring games. Id take Nevada +14.5.
Oklahoma State -5.5 vs UGA
This is more than what I posted as well. Maybe everyone is pounding on the Cowboys right now. If thats the case, UGA would be a nice pick week one. Regardless, Ill take UGA +5.5 right now.
BYU +21 vs Oklahoma in Arlington
I dont know what to say about this game really. It is really hard to bet against Oklahoma, even though I dont like them. But 21 points? Again, gun to my head, Ill take BYU plus the points, but would I be shocked if SGB runs up the score and the final is 63-21? no.
Illinois -6.5 Mizzou in St Louis
Again, a higher number. People must be thinking like I am, and realize this is the best opportunity Illinois has to beat Mizzou in a long time. 6.5 is a ton of points for a team that went 5-7 last year, and for a team that lost to Mizzou in back to back years. I fully expect Illinois' offense to be in full gear, and put up plenty of points on Mizzou, just as they have the last two years (42 in 08, 34 in 07). But the question is, will Illinois be able to stop Mizzou enough to win, let alone by 7? Even though Mizzou's offense loses some weapons, Illinois' defense does not figure to be very formidable. I will obviously be rooting for ILL here, but Mizzou +6.5 is the pick.
Baylor +2 @ Wake Forest
I told you how I like Baylor. I like them in this game. WF may have a tough time slowing down Baylor, as they replace manyof their defensive stars.
Minnesota -7 @ Syracuse
This spread is surprisingly low. Syracuse, who has been the laughing stock of the laughing stock of conferences, goes against a returning bowl team, who figures to be improving by the day..... I think this game is a trap. After seeing this spread, I had to go research Syracuse's team. They return 14 starters, but plan on starting a freshman QB. If Minnesota wants to compete in the Big10 and advance to a New Years Day bowl, they damn well better beat Syracuse by more than 7. Even still, theres something strange about that number. I would stay away.
Maryland +21 @ California
well, maryland won this game last year, but was that because the game was played at 9 AM? In all seriousness though, this is a pretty high spread. I like Cal - I think they can be very formidable, but I think Maryland returns enough to cover 21 points.
San Jose State +35 @ USC
This is a ridiculous spread. San Jose State should cover 35.
C. Michigan +12.5 @ Arizona
This is a tough game for Arizona to open up a rebuilding year. I wouldnt be shocked if the Chippewas pulled off the upset.
Rutgers -5.5 vs Cinci (Monday Night)
Hard to believe that the defending champs of a league can return 7 players on offense, and be underdogs week 1 the next year. But thats the case. I took Rutgers to win the title and win this game, but 5.5 is a lot of points. Hard not to take Cinci in this case. So much so that Cinci could become a public underdog. If thats the case, Rutgers becomes a very nice pick.
(You never want to bet on a public underdog. Ever.)
Miami +4 @ FSU (Monday Night)
This line seems just about right. IN the long run, Miami may end up being better than FSU. If Miami wants to be in the competition for an ACC title, winning this game will be humungous. Remember, their first four games are astonishingly hard. Winning one would be a huge accomplishment. Might as well make it the first one right? FSU doesnt play an easy schedule either. Again, using our 5 point to the home team logic, Vegas believes that Miami is a better than FSU, and would win if they played on a neutral field. It will be interesting to see where the money falls on this one. Right now, Ill take Miami plus the points.
Which leaves us the big one.
Virginia Tech +4.5 Alabama (in ATL)
The spread is the same as it was at the Nugget. I have already spent some time dissecting this game, and I dont know if I can make a pick right now. Again, it seems like a trap, and it will be interesting to see how the money falls. If it is overwhelmingly on Alabama, VT could be a good pick. However, I think Alabama is a better team. Also, as far as the spread goes, bettors could have a sour taste in their mouth regarding Alabama's last two games of the year. If I had to pick today, I would take Alabama, but not be overly confident.
Remember that all these games are my initial reactions. Ill officially pick all these games, and more, once the season is closer.
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