The Rambling Wreck from Georgia Tech is back. 2009 will be another chapter of GT trying to rejoin the elite programs in the nation, and trying to recapture a title on their 19th anniversary of winning one. (I only mention this because there is a documentary on ESPNU called "Band of Pirates - the story of the 1989 Seton Hall Pirates Basketball team --- featuring an upcoming 20th anniversary party ---- needless to say I am dvr-ing it). In all seriousness though, GT did re-emerge in a big way last year, but it isn't as if they were ever gone. They have made a bowl every year since 1997, but were just mediocre in the years. They have not won an ACC title since 1998, and are 3-7 in their last 10 bowl games. This can be the year they recapture an ACC title and are invited to a big time January bowl game.
OFFENSE:
The Georgia Tech offense is one of the most fun offenses to watch. Its old-school, Bill Walsh College Football for Sega Genesis triple option fun. (Remember running triple option with USC 79 - Charles White, 83 Nebraska - Mike Rozier, 85 Auburn - BO, ----that game was nothing less than fucking awesome). The offense finished 4th in the nation in rushing, averaging 273 yards a game. They come at you from so many different ways, and seemingly everyone from last year returns:
QB Josh Nesbitt returns. As is the case with a triple option quarterback, we want to actually look at his rushing numbers more than his passing numbers, but well look at both. Nesbitt threw for 800 yards and a TD-INT ratio of 2-5. Seemingly bad, and there is room for improvement. He only completed 43.9% of his passes. If he can get that number up to about 56-58%, and actually throw more TDs than INTs, the offense would be completely unstoppable. On the ground, Nesbitt ran for 693 yards and 7 TDs. Keep in mind that he will only be a junior this year, and last year was the first year under Paul Johnson's triple option attack. His numbers only figure to improve.
The star of the team is RB Jonathan Dwyer. He rushed for 1395 yards and 12 TDs on 200 attempts last year! That is 7 yards per carry. RB Roddy Jones rushed for 690 yards and 7 TDs on only 81 attempts - that is 8.5 yards per carry! Dwyer will be a junior this year, and Jones will only be a sophomore. RB Lucas Cox even chipped in, amounting 200 yards on 26 carries; good a 7.7 average. The lowest average rusher for the Jackets was Nesbitt, who only averaged 4.0 a carry. Its amazing that the offense was ever stopped last year with 3 RBs averaging over 7 yards an attempt, but well look into that more later.
As you would imagine, the passing game isnt spectacular, but you take what you can get. Only one player caught more than 10 passes last year. WR Demariuys Thomas caught 39 balls for 627 yards, and is by far the most productive wide receiver for the Yellow Jackets.
The Yellow Jackets return 3/5 offensive linemen. None of the players figure to be superstars, but will need to work successfully as a unit to keep the running game going.
DEFENSE:
The defense returns 7 starters and figures to be sufficient enough to keep games low scoring, but there is one possible weakness. The defensive line loses 3 starters, all 3 heading to the NFL (Michael Johnson, Vance Walker, Darryl Richard). It is nearly impossible to replace that type of quality, but someone must help fill the void. The one returning starter they have on the line, DE Derrick Morgan, is a good player.
The Jackets return 5/7 of their back seven. This is highlighted by Free Safety Morgan Burnett. Burnett tied for the lead in interceptions in the nation last year. Still, if no pressure is applied to the quarterback, any secondary will get eaten alive. The defense last year was above average; finishing 28th in the nation in scoring, 24th in rushing, and 41st in passing. The pass defense figures to improve, but will they be affected by the loss of all the talent up front? The Jackets finished 18th in the nation in sacks last year, and most of those belonged to the 3 people who are now gone.
It seems hard to figure that a team with the offensive firepower of GT, that finished 4th in the nation in rushing, finished 74th in the nation in scoring. They averaged 24.4 pts/game. Comparing that to the 20 pts they allowed, and the Jackets team had a razor thin margin of error. Sure enough, nearly every game they played was close (minus the blowout they endured vs LSU in the Peach Bowl). Lets look at just their losses, and see what happened:
They lost 17-20 to Virginia Tech. It was close the entire game, and the Jackets rushed for 278 yards, so nothing glaring there. Their biggest downfall came from turning the ball over 3 times; 2 fumbles and 1 INT. Also, GT runs the ball nearly every play. You really can't understand it until you see it. 3rd and 11 means run the ball. No joke. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesnt. They were 6/10 on 3rd down conversions this game, so you can't fault that. When it works on 3rd and 11 youre happy, when they rush it for 1 yard on 3rd and 8, you say what the fuck?! Over the long term, they have just as good of a conversion rate on third down running the ball than any other team has doing what they do. So the final drive, they get the ball back with 4:30 left and down 3. It got to be 3rd and 7, and they did something different.....they threw the ball. It fell incomplete. Then they went for it on 4th down and Nesbitt was sacked. They did start the drive running the ball, and time was of the essence, but throwing the ball back to back plays is certainly a twist for GT. Its the major problem with the offense.......what do you do if you fall behind? Well, sometimes you can run yourself back into the game. Other times, such as this or against LSU, you cant. This game though, they lost due to turnovers. VT had 0 turnovers.
They lost 24-17 to Virginia. This was a game they led 14-3 after the first quarter. It would seem hard to believe that GT couldn't protect the lead due to the nature of their offense, but they had trouble running the ball against Virginia. They only rushed for 156 yards. (Virginia btw was 5-3 after this game, and then proceeded to lose their last 4.) GT turned it over 3 times again in this game, 2 fumbles and 1 pick, again. This time, a fumble came in the third quarter on the Virginia 5 yard line. This was the 2nd highest attempts in a game for Nesbitt other than when they lost to UNC (coming up). But unlike against UNC, GT led in this game and should have run the ball more. There were times that they were throwing on 2nd and 3rd down, and it wasn't going very well. The turnovers were killer again.
They lost to UNC 28-7. It was 7-0 entering the 4th quarter, so how did UNC hold them for so long? Well GT rushed for 326 yards, so thats odd. As mentioned, Nesbitt had 22 attempts, the most of the year for him. They had 3 turnovers again this game. They missed two field goals, albeit long ones. They were 0-2 on 4th down conversions. They had a string of penalties which led them to a 2nd and 36 (tough to convert when you run the ball). Once they were down a few scores in the 4th quarter, it was nearly impossible for them to come back, even with a 85 yard TD run by Dwyer.
Against LSU, they just got completely steamrolled. They didnt even really have a chance to run the ball. It was 14-3 quickly, LSU surprised them with an onside kick, put another quick 2 touchdowns on the board, and the game was over. Relieved that I wouldnt miss any New Year's Celebrations, I got drunk and didnt bother watching the 2nd half......because you knew it would be over. They cant come back from a deficit like that.
So those would be the major flaws in GT's offense. I will say this though. The triple option is an offense that can be turnover prone. I mean, the more you run, the more likely you are to fumble, but then especially imagine sticking a ball in someone's stomach, pulling it out, reading defenses, pitching the ball as a linebacker sticks their helmet in your sternum, etc. It is an offense that can lead to many fumbles. GT is a team that throws less INTs than other teams though, due obviously to their lack of passing attempts. It all evens out. What you cant have is fumbles on the other teams 5 yard line. That play cost them the divisional title last year. They dont fumble, they beat Virginia, they win the division, then maybe they beat BC in the ACC title game, and theyre in the Orange Bowl instead. The ACC plays out like that. I would imagine that the fumbles will be lower this year. Just like a QB when hes learning the spread, he is going to throw a lot of picks. THen you learn the offense, and you cut down on the ints, increase the yards and TDs, and everyone loves you. I imagine the same thing happening for GT this year.
Overall though, it is not a team that is going to play in the 40s (despite their 45-42 win over UGA). They cant afford to fall behind, or be behind by a considerable amount in the 4th quarter. Their defense is responsible for not allowing this to happen. What is my major concern on defense? The D-Line.......therefore, I say the success of GT's season is reliant on their defensive line. If they play at a similar level to last year, they can/will win the ACC. If there is a fall off, then the offense will need to make up the difference, something that is still possible.
Final Predictions:
9/5 Jacksonville State ------ Win
9/12 Clemson ------- Win
9/19 @ Miami ------ Win
9/26 North Carolina ------ Win
10/3 @ Mississippi St. ------ Win
10/10 @ Florida St. ------ Win
10/17 Virginia Tech ----- Win
10/24 @ Virginia ----- Win
10/31 @ Vanderbilt ------ -Win
11/7 Wake Forest ----- Win
11/14 @ Duke ------ Win
11/28 Georgia ----- Win
The only break they get in this schedule is that they get a week off between Duke and UGA. They start off hard, and a trip to Miami will be a test. Then they face off against UNC, have to travel to Starksville, before playing what many people consider the two favorites in the ACC --VT and FSU. Then, they have another non-conference SEC road trip to Vanderbilt! This is a tough schedule.
I just want to reiterate that the landscape of the ACC will change every week. How could it not? Look at every ACC team preview I have done, and look at the schedules. Pick out 8 games that you can guarantee a result for for one team and Ill give you 5 dollars. Realistically, GT wont go 12-0. They will probably be 9-3, but that should be good enough to win the ACC. Right now though, I think they are the favorite to win the ACC, and having to pick each game individually, I would pick GT in all of them. THings change throughout a season --- injuries, momentum, etc......and winning big game after big game and going undefeated is something very difficult to do. That being said, if someone asked me right now who I thought was going to win, GT or FSU, I would pick GT, and thats why I did take them.
12-0 (8-0)
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